Near Record To Record Heat Today & Wednesday - T-Storms Return Wednesday Into The Weekend.
Lakewood, New Mexico.
Our monsoonal mid-upper level high will remain centered over the Four Corners today and begin a slow slide eastward into the Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast States by late this week. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough of low pressure will dig southward into the Western U.S. Tuesday into the upcoming weekend.
This will allow the flow aloft to turn southerly over the state, which will import monsoonal moisture northward from Mexico later this week.
Today and Tuesday, many of us will get thrown back into the frying pan with near-record to record daily high temperatures forecast. Forecast highs today and Wednesday across the southeastern plains will be in the 102 to 105 range. By Thursday, we will knock off a few degrees from our daily highs into the weekend, with most locations in the upper 90s.
A few isolated to widely scattered t-storms will pop up over parts of southeastern plains, the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains today through Thursday, with coverage and chances of getting wet increasing Friday into the weekend. The threat for localized flash flooding, especially over and near the recent burn scars in the Ruidoso area, will increase later this week into the weekend as well.
Forecast models are currently not very excited about southeastern and eastern New Mexico getting very wet with this next go-around of t-storms. How wet we get or don't get will depend upon how far east the upper-level monsoonal high moves and how far east the monsoonal fetch of moisture from Mexico moves into the state later this week.
Long-range outlooks still think that there will be a pattern change allowing for better chances of above-normal rainfall for just about all of the state the last week of this month into the first week of September. Unfortunately, it appears that we will still remain above normal temperature-wise.
Selected Record High Temperatures Today & Tuesday.
Today.
Jal NWS Climate COOP 108 in 1952
Roswell Industrial Air Center ASOS 107 in 2023
Artesia NWS Climate COOP 107 in 2019
Brantley Dam NWS Climate COOP 106 in 2023
Hobbs NWS Climate COOP 106 in 2011
WIPP 105 in 2023
Carlsbad NWS Climate COOP 105 in 2011
Tatum NWS Climate COOP 105 in 1936
Artesia Municipal Airport AWOS 104 in 2020
Carlsbad Cavern Air Center Airport ASOS 104 in 2020
Hope NWS Climate COOP 102 in 2023
Hobbs Regional Airport AWOS 102 in 2023
Alamagordo Regional Airport AWOS 102 in 2020
Carlsbad Caverns NWS Climate COOP 101 in 2023
Elk NWS Climate COOP 99 in 2005
Mountain Park NWS Climate COOP 92 in 1969
Ruidoso NWS Climate COOP 90 in 2024
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport AWOS 90 in 2012
Cloudcroft NWS Climate COOP 82 in 1969 and 2020
Wednesday.
WIPP 108 in 2020
Roswell Industrial Air Center ASOS 107 in 2020
Artesia NWS Climate COOP 107 in 2019
Carlsbad Cavern Air Center Airport ASOS 1-7 in 2012
Artesia Municipal Airport AWOS 106 in 2020
Carlsbad NWS Climate COOP 106 in 1936
Tatum NWS Climate COOP 105 in 1936
Jal NWS Climate COOP 105 in 2019
Hope NWS Climate COOP 103 in 2020
Brantley Dam NWS Climate COOP 103 in 2024
Hobbs NWS Climate COOP 103 in 2011
Hobbs Regional Airport AWOS 102 in 2012
Alamagordo Regional Airport AWOS 102 in 2020
Alamagordo NWS Climate COOP 102 in 1969
Carlsbad Caverns NWS Climate COOP 101 in 2023
Elk NWS Climate COOP 95 in 2020
Mountain Park NWS Climate COOP 90 in 2003
Ruidoso NWS Climate COOP 87 in 2002
Sierra Blanca Regional Airport AWOS 86 in 2012
Cloudcroft NWS Climate COOP 81 in 1962
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue across the region through this week and into the weekend. Some locations will be near or above 100 degrees. - Isolated to scattered (10-40%) afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms will develop over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, the Marfa/Stockton Plateaus, and portions of the Big Bend today and Wednesday. Dry weather conditions continue over the rest of the region. - Showers and thunderstorms become more scattered in coverage over western portions of the region by mid to late week, especially near the higher terrain.
&&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1121 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1114 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Thunderstorm activity increases through late this week. Risk of flash flooding returns to portions of central and western New Mexico mid to late week, including the Ruidoso area burn scars. - Smoke from wildfires across the region continues to impact air quality across northern parts of New Mexico through mid week. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1034 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1011 AM MDT Tue Aug 11 2026 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms today, favoring southwest New Mexico. - Moisture and rain chances increase for the second half of the week, posing a low risk of flash flooding area wide. Highest flood threat looks to be on Saturday. - Triple-digit heat for the Rio Grande Valley and Tularosa Basin today, then cooling towards normal. &&
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

















Comments
Post a Comment
Your comments, questions, and feedback on this post/web page are welcome.