Help - We're Stuck In A Hot/ Dry Pattern That Just Won't Go Away!

- August 16, 2026

August 15, 2026.

Cumulonimbus Mammatus Clouds.

Looking West From Lakewood, New Mexico.

Help, we're stuck, and we can't get out. Get out of this boring, unrelenting hot and dry pattern. Brought to you by our annual summer monsoon, which is being heavily influenced (IMHO) by the very strong El Niño that continues to strengthen towards record levels.

As often is the case, strong El Niños can and do produce dry, hot summers across parts of West Texas and New Mexico... this year has not disappointed so far, particularly across the eastern half of the state, east of the central mountain chain.

To date, the following locations have recorded the following number of days with highs of 100º or higher:

Our home in NW Carlsbad (Not official) 47.

Carlsbad Cavern Air Center Airport ASOS 43.

Roswell Industrial Air Center Airport ASOS 37.

Brantley Dam Climate COOP Station 35.

Artesia Climate COOP Station SEBS 34.

Artesia Municipal Airport AWOS 32.

Hobbs Regional Airport AWOS 19.

The Cloudcroft Climate COOP Station has recorded 13 days so far with high temps of 80º or higher.

The Ruidoso Climate COOP Station has recorded at least 17 days so far with high temps of 90º or higher.

A few spots across southeastern New Mexico are close to seasonal averages (June 15th - Aug 15th), but most locations continue to fall behind. This is also true across the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe Mountains. Most locations are still below normal.

Southwestern, western, northwestern, and parts of northern New Mexico are doing better, with many locations running above normal rainfall averages to date.

As our summertime subtropical monsoonal high continues to wander around the region, back and forth, for all intents and purposes our weather in southeastern New Mexico and much of West Texas isn't going to change all that much. More stretches of daily highs in the upper 90's to the low 100s are on tap for the next couple of weeks, it appears. Which will run some five to ten degrees above normal. Most of us will not see rainfall, and if we do, it won't be anything to break the drought or write home about. Now that I've said that, watch one or two t-storms make a liar out of me.

As far as the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains are concerned, you can expect more of the same. Scattered hit-and-miss afternoon and early evening t-storms. A few of these may dump locally heavy rainfall with storm totals over 1" to 3+", causing localized flash flooding as has been the case this afternoon, but widespread heavy rainfall everywhere is not anticipated. The recent burn scars near the Ruidoso area will remain a concern for localized flash flooding. Your temps will continue to be slightly above monthly normals.

For much of this summer so far, areas along and west of the central mountain chain of the state will be most favored for continued shower and t-storm activity.

Localized flash flooding will be possible just about anywhere in these areas with any t-storm that dumps heavy rainfall in excess of an inch or two.

Nothing lasts forever, even though this torrid summer seems like it never will end. Long-range outlooks insist that a pattern change will drop our temps and give us better chances for more widespread rainfall starting the last week of the month going into the first week of the meteorological fall (Sept). We shall see.