Warming Back Up This Weekend - Next Week Turning Unsettled.

- October 09, 2026

October 7, 2026.

Hobbs, New Mexico Sunset.

A warming trend has commenced and will continue this weekend through Columbus Day before a Pacific cold front cools us down next Tuesday and Wednesday. A second cold front will likely drop our temps further by next Thursday and Friday.

Until then, the southeastern plains will get rather toasty Sunday and Monday, with highs forecast in the low to mid 90s. We may get close to the daily record highs.

Record High Temperatures For:

Roswell Sunday 96 in 2020

Roswell Monday 97 in 2024

Artesia Airport Sunday 93 in 2020

Artesia Airport Monday 95 in 2024

Artesia Climate Sunday 96 in 2020

Artesia Climate Monday 93 in 2024

Carlsbad Airport Sunday 96 in 1979

Carlsbad Airport Monday 97 in 1979

Carlsbad Climate Sunday 98 in 1903

Carlsbad Climate Monday 95 in 1979

Breezy southerly and southwesterly winds will pick up Sunday across the southeastern plains with gusts around 25 mph. Stronger gusts are forecast for the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains generally in the 25 to 30 mph range.

Western New Mexico will be windy Sunday afternoon with strong southerly and southwesterly winds gusting up to around 35 to 50 mph. Much of next week could also be breezy to windy as winds aloft strengthen as the storm to our west moves over the state or to the north of us.

A closed mid-upper-level low off the West Coast of California today will absorb the remnant tropical moisture of Tropical Storm Rachel as she nears the northern Baja Peninsula Saturday night. As of 3 PM MDT this Friday afternoon, she has sustained winds of 45 mph. Current forecast models indicate that her remnant tropical moisture will affect mainly southern California and Arizona this weekend, staying west of New Mexico.

Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will dot the landscape of western and northwestern New Mexico Saturday afternoon and spread eastward on Sunday to include the northern and central mountain chains and southwestern New Mexico.

A secondary mid-upper-level low will move southward from Washington and Oregon on Saturday, phasing with and absorbing the first low and Rachel's remnant tropical moisture. By sunrise Monday morning, the center of this low will be over northwestern Nevada or west of Los Angeles, depending upon which forecast model you believe.

This is where model forecast uncertainty and confusion begins to become a factor in our local forecasts.

Hurricane Simon was located 195 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, at 3 PM MDT. He has sustained winds of 105 mph with gusts near 125 mph and was crawling to the northwest at 2 mph. Simon will turn to the north over the weekend and make landfall over the central Mexican West Coast by around noon Monday.

How much of Simon's remnant tropical moisture gets pulled north into New Mexico, especially southeastern New Mexico and West Texas, is questionable at this time. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to break out over the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains Sunday night. And over the southeastern plains Monday night.

Looking at the model storm total rainfall forecasts over the next week, the European is coming in as the wettest with 1.50" to 3.50" over the Sac's, Guadalupe's, southeastern plains, and the western Permian Basin. The NBM, the GFS, and Canadian are much drier.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, light snow may fall over the northern mountains above 10,000'.

With strong southwesterly winds aloft developing over the Desert Southwest Sunday into next week, showers and thunderstorms over the state are expected to move at a fast enough pace to limit the flash flood threat. Unless there are training thunderstorms. How much tropical moisture comes to play over the state or not will determine where and when heavy rains fall or not.

It appears that we will not see a repeat of the excessive rainfall and flash flooding across the state like we saw a week ago with the remnants of Hurricane Polo's tropical moisture.

Depending upon the arrival of the secondary and stronger cold front at the end of next week, many of the lower elevations of the state may see low temperatures in the 40s and 50s. In northwestern New Mexico, the northern valleys of the state, lows may drop down close to freezing, and in the higher mountain valleys of the state, the 20s.

Be prepared for changes in some of our forecasts next week as the models settle down and the storm pattern becomes clearer.

Latest On El Niño.

NOAA now gives this El Niño an 83% chance of reaching historic strength during Oct–Dec, and a 100% chance of a "Super" or "Very Strong" event Sept-Nov. 

Typically, strong El Niño's produce stormy winters and springs in New Mexico. There are other factors at play that will help shape our weather this coming winter, such as the QBO, the MJO, a cold PDO, and the Polar Vortex. 

To say that the setup for this winter is complicated is a massive understatement. Should El Niño reach the historic levels being forecast, then no doubt about it, the impacts upon New Mexico's weather will be huge. But to what extent?

Will this upcoming winter be warmer than normal, producing more rain than snow? Or will it be colder than normal, producing more snow for the state? 

The potential for potent winter storms is there; how many and how soon? Too many questions remain unanswered, but make no mistake: our winter this year will be anything but boring. 