Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Artesia-Cottonwood LP Supercell Chase Time-Lapse Video

Next Storm To Bring A Wintry Mix Late This Weekend.

Today Into Saturday.

A broken deck of mid-level clouds blankets southeastern New Mexico skies this morning. Our skies will clear later today, with our afternoon temperatures climbing up into the upper 40's to the low 50's. A few spots may see the mid 50's. With clear skies, light winds, and a drier airmass in place over the area tonight, our low temperatures tomorrow morning will dip down into low-mid 20's.

Saturday will see an increase in clouds with afternoon highs in the upper 40's to the low 50's. Then the fun starts Sunday into the first of next week with Winter Storm #1. Two more additional Winter Storms may impact our weather Christmas week into the Christmas weekend.

Weekend Winter Storm?

Our next winter storm is diving southward through central California this morning. This is indicated in the satellite image above by the little swirl over central California. 

By Saturday the cutoff upper-level low should be located near the northern Baja, California Region. The models are hinting that this storm will then crawl very slowly eastward just south of the Arizona and New Mexico state lines into at least Sunday, and maybe Monday. Cutoff lows are a pain in the neck to try and forecast, so I will not be surprised if this one does not act according to model forecasts.

5-Day Precipitation Forecast.
(Today - Next Tuesday).

A surge of colder air is forecast to slide southward down the eastern plains of the state Sunday night into Monday. If this colder airmass arrives ahead of the approaching upper-level storm to our west Sunday night, then our chances for seeing the white stuff across the lower elevations of SE NM will increase. A later arrival time would mean more rain for us than snow. A mixed bag of wintry precipitation looks like a possibility Sunday into Monday...perhaps changing over to all snow by Monday morning across eastern and southeastern New Mexico. Its early yet so the details of the potential impacts upon our local weather are not set in stone just yet.

This looks like a good setup for the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains to receive some heavy snowfall. If everything comes together just right, then eastern and southeastern New Mexico could also see some heavy snowfall from this storm. At this time it appears that the main impacts from this storm will occur from Sunday into Monday. 

A very stormy pattern looks to be taking shape across the area from late this weekend into Christmas week, and potentially into the Christmas weekend. The split flow in the Jet Stream will continue to send a series of winter storms southward into the Desert Southwest, which will impact New Mexico with varying types and amounts of wintry precipitation. Cold surges of arctic air will also invade the local area from time to time. 

Please check back here often for all of the latest details. I will update my web page daily as needed as the details become available. 

A Look Back In History.
(December 13-15, 1987.)

A powerful, and slow moving upper-level storm tracked right over the top of southern and southeastern New Mexico, December 13th through the 15th in 1987. This potent winter storm interacted with cold arctic air at the surface, and produced some memorial snowfall totals across the area. 

Snowfall 22.4" (16.8" in 24 hrs)
Max Snow Depth 16"
Low 6

Capitan Climate-
Snowfall 13.5"
Low -6

Ruidoso Climate-
Snowfall 29.3" (Max Snow Depth 22")
Low -8

Cloudcroft Climate-
Snowfall 15" (Max Snow Depth 15")
Low -6

Elk Climate-
Snowfall 24.0" (Max Snow Depth 24")
Low -10

Bitter Lakes Wildlife Refuge Climate-
  Snowfall 10"
Low -8

Roswell Airport-
 Snowfall 9"
Low 0

Hope Climate-
Snowfall 14"
 Low 4

Artesia Climate-
Snowfall 9"
 Low -13

Snowfall 13"
Low -13

Carlsbad Airport-
Snowfall 13"
Low -4

Carlsbad Caverns Climate-
Snowfall 18"
 Low 13

Maljamar Climate-
Snowfall 18" (Max Snow Depth 15")
Low 12

Tatum Climate-
Snowfall 8"-10" 
Low -2

Hobbs Climate-
Snowfall 5"
 Low 7

Snowfall And Temp Data Is Courtesy Of-

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction


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