Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Our Chances For Rain Upon The Plain Will Increase.










Today Into Wednesday.

Blog updated at 12:28 PM MST.





We are going on four days now that we have been locked in with low clouds, fog, and drizzle. We did break out of the soup for a little bit yesterday afternoon, but our skies did not clear, nor did our temperatures warm up to the afternoon forecast highs. So we will try again today.

Our latest upper-level storm is still parked over southern California early this morning. It is forecast to begin opening up and moving east today. It should move east of the state by Wednesday night. Not to worry...there are more storms lined up that will be coming our way.

A few rain showers will be possible across the area today, and these will pick up in coverage and intensity tonight into tomorrow morning, as the slow moving storm to our west approaches.
A few thunderstorms are still possible, especially from Lea County eastward, into West Texas. Once again low clouds and fog will thicken up tonight with the rain. Our chances for rain are in the 20% - 40% range.

A cold front is forecast to move into the area around midnight tonight. This combined with the departing upper-level storm tomorrow, will finally clear up our skies and end the dreary weather that we have been experiencing. I can hardly complain though...given the horrendous spring and summer that we endured this year. I know that a lot of you don't like this kind of weather, but I love it. I just wish we were getting more of the "S" word. :)

Our afternoon high temperatures are forecast to rise up into the mid to upper 50's today, with maybe a 60-degree reading or two. Even though a front will sweep eastward through the area later tonight, tomorrow should be a little warmer than today with the clearing skies, and downslopping gusty westerly winds at around 15-25 mph. A few of the higher peaks of the Guadalupe's may experience gusts of around 60 mph.

Ruidoso and Cloudcroft will likely see rain today, which will change over to all snow tonight into tomorrow. Current National Weather Service forecasts are calling for 1" - 3" of the white stuff for both communities. The higher peaks and ridges may pick up a little more than this.

A Look At Our Weekend Storm.

Valid At 5 PM MST Fri Dec 16, 2011.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF models carve out yet another deep upper-level storm over southern California by late Thursday. What they do with it after Friday is the fly in the ointment for forecasters. This will have a huge impact on our local weather.

Should the GFS model be correct in taking the storm on a more northward track across Arizona by Saturday, and then across the state on Sunday, and into the western plains state by Monday...then we would be looking at more wind that precipitation.

However, given the trend thus far this season for these closed lows to drop to the south and then slowly crawl eastward....it appears the the European model (ECMWF) may be the preferred choice with this next winter storm set to impact the state. It closes the upper-level low off over southern California Thursday night into Saturday. Then it slowly moves it eastward across the Arizona/New Mexico state line into Monday.

This would place the southern one-half of the state in an ideal location for the best lift from this storm. This combined with another intrusion of cold air from the north, may produce a wintry mix of precipitation across the local area this weekend into the first of next week. This track would also be more favorable for the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan Mountains to potentially pick up some heavy snowfall totals. Old man winter and mother nature are on a roll this year... yet another winter storm may impact the state by the middle of next week. Time will tell...keep checking back.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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