Slight Risk For Severe T-Storms In NE-E-SE NM This Afternoon & Evening.

Century Plants In Bloom West Of Hope, New Mexico.
I have always loved watching these beautiful Agave Plants bloom in June. My wife and I drove up to the Mayhill and Cloudcroft areas this past Sunday and saw quite a few of them in bloom between Hope and Dunken on US Hwy 82.

Scattered thunderstorms have started developing along the east slopes of the Northern Mountains of New Mexico as of noontime today. Additional thunderstorms are forecast to develop southward down the Central Mountain chain and along the east slopes of the Capitan and Sacramento Mountains this afternoon. These thunderstorms will move south and southeast out onto the Eastern and Southeastern Plains late this afternoon into this evening.

Multicellular thunderstorms are forecast and there also will be a few supercell type thunderstorms develop. The main severe weather threats will be large hail in excess of the size of quarters (1" in diameter) and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts that exceed 58 mph.

Isolated tornadoes and landspouts will also be possible. Locally heavy rainfall could also cause localized flash flooding in a few locations. As we approach sunset some of the multicellular thunderstorms may congeal into clusters or form short lines with the threat for damaging winds from these increasing as they move into West Texas. 

Valid At 6 PM MDT This Evening.

Valid At 9 PM MDT This Evening.

According to the NCEP High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Computer Forecast Model a line of thunderstorms should be moving to the southeast through Eastern New Mexico and then Southeastern New Mexico between 6 PM and Midnight. This is a model forecast so this afternoon's and evenings thunderstorm activity may line up differently on actual radar than what this model thinks will happen. But overall it gives us an idea of what to expect.

 Note the individual radar blobs out ahead of the line of thunderstorms in the first graphic...these may be isolated supercell thunderstorms that develop. These storms will have the potential to produce the larger hail and possibly and isolated tornado or two. 

(June 1st - June 5th).

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