Cold - Wet - Blustery Wednesday!


(Valid At 6:30 AM MDT This Morning).



(Valid At 7 AM MDT This Morning).


Wind Chill Temperatures.
(Valid At 7 AM MDT This Morning).


(Valid At 7 AM MDT).



Valid At 3 AM MDT This Morning.

Surface Map Forecast.


Make no mistake about it fall is off to an early start across parts of the Western U.S. this year. Take a look at the temperature maps above and note the widespread temps in the 30's and 40's with even a few low temps reported to be in the teens and 20's across Wyoming. 

A potent cold front had entered extreme northeastern New Mexico as of 3 AM MDT this morning and will continue pushing to the south and west throughout the day. Falling temperatures along with gusty northerly to northeasterly winds in the 30-40 mph range will accompany the frontal passage. The front should arrive in southeastern New Mexico around or just before sunset this evening. Many of us may see our 24-hour high temperatures for Wednesday set around midnight tonight.



NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperature Anomalies Today.


Most of the local area will see high temperatures this afternoon near 90º to the low and mid 90's. These readings will be some 5º to 10º above the average for the date. This changes dramatically on Wednesday behind the cold front.



NWS NDFD Forecast High Temperature Anomalies Wednesday.


NAM Forecast High Temperatures Wednesday.


After seeing our afternoon high temps some 10º above normal today Wednesday's afternoon highs are likely to be some 25º to 30º below normal. In fact some locations will see a drop in temperatures on Wednesday of 30º to 40º compared to today's readings. Most of the local area should remain in the 50's on Wednesday. Those gusty northerly to northeasterly winds will make it feel even colder especially in the morning so bundle up the kiddos Wednesday morning.


Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday.

NAM-WRF Forecast Storm Total Rainfall Amounts.

Valid At 10 PM MDT Thursday.

Wednesday should see overcast skies along with blustery conditions with light to moderate rainfall and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms. Forecast models continue to indicate that most of the local area should see around a half of an inch of rainfall with pockets of heavier totals ending by Thursday. 

Elevations above 10,000' in the northern New Mexico mountains and the Sierra Blanca Peak area west of Ruidoso still have a chance of seeing a dusting of light snow out of this storm. As I mentioned yesterday this is not all that unusual for Sierra Blanca Peak but not common either. 


September 1913.

September 1936.

Speaking of snow in the Sacramento mountains of south-central New Mexico Cloudcroft can and has seen measurable snowfall in September. On September 25th, 1913 1.0" of snow fell with 3.0" falling on the 26th. They recorded a trace of snow on September 20th, 1949 and 7.0" on September 28th, 1936. And 1.0" on September 30th, 1945.


September 1945.

Ruidoso also can and has seen measurable snowfall in September. On September 29th, 1945 Ruidoso measured 2.5" of snowfall and on September 14th, 1951 they had a trace of snow. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Strong Cold Front Arrives Tuesday Night.


9-22-2018.
Twilight At Sunset West Of Roswell, NM With A Rising Moon.

Jet Stream Becoming More Active.


Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday, Sept 26, 2018.

ECMWF 500 MB/18,000' MSL Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday, Sept 26, 2018.

With the arrival of fall we are seeing changes in the mid and upper level flow pattern across North America. The jet stream is becoming more active with time. Its getting stronger and dipping a little further to the south. This of course means changes in our local weather.


Valid At 6 PM MDT Tuesday, Sept 25, 2018.

 As the jet stream kicks a mid-level trough of low pressure eastward across the northern plains states Tuesday and Wednesday a strong cold front is forecast to enter the local area Tuesday night. After seeing our afternoon highs in the low 90's today and Tuesday we should only be in the mid 60's for highs Wednesday. So our afternoon high temps here in Southeastern New Mexico will be some 5 to nearly 10 degrees above normal today and Tuesday then dropping down to 20 degrees below normal by Wednesday behind the cold front. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will be some 25 to 30 degrees colder than Tuesdays readings. Without a doubt there will be a chill in the air born upon gusty northerly and northeasterly winds Tuesday night into Wednesday early afternoon. Wednesday's weather will be very fall-like.


Today.


Tuesday.


Wednesday.


ECMWF Temperature Anomaly Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday, Sept 26, 2018.


Valid Wednesday, Sept 26, 2018.

NWS NDFD Temperature Anomaly Forecast.

Valid Wednesday, Sept 26, 2018.

Rainfall Forecasts.


Valid At 6 AM MDT Thursday, Sept 27, 2018.

ECMWF Storm Total Rainfall Forecast.

Valid At 6 PM MDT Wednesday, Sept 26, 2018.

Not only is much cooler weather on the way but another decent shot at some respectable rainfall totals as well. The European (ECMWF) was the most gun whole with last nights run producing an inch or so of rainfall over parts of SE NM and W TX. 

And its possible that a dusting of snow will drape the higher peaks of northern New Mexico. This could also be the case on Sierra Blanca Peak west of Ruidoso above 10,000' Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. I've seen this happen on more than once occasion in my lifetime during the end of September.  

(September 24th).


The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Coolest Morning Of The Fall Season - Local YTD Rainfall Update.


Capitan Mountain WNW Of Roswell, NM At Sunset 9-22-2018.

Coolest Morning Since May 5th.

(Valid At 6 AM MDT Sunday, Sept 23rd, 2018).




(As Of 10 AM MDT).


Locally we had our coolest morning of this fall season this morning. Our lows once again dipped down into the 50's across the Southeastern Plains. The mountains saw lows in the 30's and 40's. 

A few of the colder readings reported include:


Evening Twilight Between Roswell And Ruidoso Sunday.

2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad Temperature Graph.


Here at our home in northwest Carlsbad we dipped down to 52º this morning. This is the coolest low temperature since May 5th when we recorded a low of 51º. The Carlsbad Airport ASOS reported a low temperature this morning of 51º which is their coolest morning low since May 5th when a low over 48º was noted. This is the time of the year when we see cool mornings lows but our afternoon highs are still fairly warm. 

Selected Local Average High/Low Temps For Sept 23rd.
(Long Term Averages: 1893 - 2017).

Roswell 84º - 54º
Artesia 84º - 54º
Carlsbad 85º - 58º
Hobbs 82º - 56º
Tatum 81º - 52º
Ruidoso 73º - 39º
Cloudcroft 64º - 41º

Moonrise Near Tinne West Of Roswell Sunday.

(January 1st - September 22nd, 2018).





My Greatest 24-Hour Total So Far This Year - .70" On Sept 6th.

These graphics are somewhat misleading in that locally they show more rainfall to have fallen than has been measured in some spots. A case in point is here at our home in northwestern Carlsbad. So far for September I've recorded 1.79" which is slightly above the Carlsbad Climate Co-Op Stations long term average of 1.67". However for the year I've only managed to measure 4.87" in our rain gague. Which compared to the long term average to date for the Carlsbad Climate Co-Op Station (10.37") is 5.50" below average to date. 

Much of New Mexico had average to above summer monsoon rainfall but this isn't the case locally. The Carlsbad Climate Co-Op Station has measured 1.89" so far this month compared to an average to date of 1.67". This brings the station total for the year to 6.98" compared with the long term average to date of 10.37". That station located 6 miles southeast of my station has had 2.11" more rainfall than my gauge but is still some 3.39" below average for the year so far.

Roswell is pretty much in the same boat. The Roswell Industrial Air Center ASOS has measured 1.05" for the month compared to a long term average to date of 1.21". This brings their year-to-date total to 5.09" compared to a long term average to date of 10.14".


September 2018.






2018 Year-To-Date.
(January 1st - Sept 22nd).






To date 2018 is going down for the most part locally as being a drier than normal year. Even in the mountains where some the wettest reporting CoCoraHS Stations have had 15" to 23" of rainfall so far this year. 

(September 23rd).


The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Current Temperatures

Current Wind Chill Temps

Regional Radar

NWS Forecast High Temps Today

NWS Forecast Low Temps Tonight

NWS Storm Total Precipitation Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS Midland Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS El Paso Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Peak Wind Gust Forecast

NWS Midland Peak Wind Gust Forecast

NWS El Paso Peak Wind Gust Forecast

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures

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