Incredibly Wet Summer Monsoon Of 2014 - 1941 New Mexico's Wettest Year/El Niño Year.

September 22, 2014.

Normally Dry Four Mile Arroyo - Lake Rd, Lakewood, NM.

Looking back at our wettest summer monsoon in 45 years (1981-2026) here in Eddy County should remind all of us that when this drought finally does bust, it likely will do so with a bang just as it did in September of 2014. 

The summer monsoon of 2013 was also impressive, but 2014 saw some incredible rainfall totals that produced widespread flash flooding across the area. 

 Selected heavier rainfall totals from June 15th - September 30th, 2014 include:

1 Mile East Malaga 25.50+"

Sierra Blanca Snotel 25.10"

Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 4.9 NE 24.89"

Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 4.0 E 22.98"

Sunspot CoCoRaHS 0.07 N 22.96"

Durante Rd 1 Mile East Malaga 22.25+"

Derrick Rd/Old Cavern Hwy 21.50+"

Elk NWS Climate COOP Station 21.06"

Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 0.4 ESE 19.22"

Mayhill CoCoRaHS 2.8 WNW 19.22"

Bowl Raws Located Below Guadalupe Pk 19.13"

Cloudcroft NWS Climate COOP Station 19.10"

Lincoln CoCoRaHS 1.4 ESE 19.01"

Queen CoCoRaHS 33.3 WSW of Carlsbad 18.38"

Mountain Park NWS Climate COOP Station 18.15"

Pine Springs GMNP MesoNet 17.85"

Between Kincaid Ranch Rd & Rockin R Red Rd 17.70+"

Carlsbad NWS Climate COOP Station 17.39"

Carlsbad CoCoRaHS 17.1 NW (Price) 17.36"

Kennel Rd Carlsbad 16.70+"

Roswell CoCoRaHS 0.3 SSW 16.52"

South 6th St Carlsbad 16.50+"

McKittrick Canyon 15.53"

Pine Springs - Pinery Raws 15.41"

Paduca Raws - Near The WIPP Site 13.85"

Queen Raws 13.70"

17.1 NW Carlsbad 13.17"

Carlsbad NWS Climate Co-Op Station 13.10"

Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns 12.86"

N5MJ SE Carlsbad 12.79"

Dog Canyon Raws 12.48"

1.2 W Monument 11.67"

Dark Canyon Rd 11.55"

Red Hills Gas Plant - 21 WMW Jal 11.50"

Jal Climate 11.38"

Bonito Lake - Runnels Stable 11.16"

Queen 33.3 WSW Carlsbad 10.95"

1.9 NW Carlsbad 10.80"

6.6 NW Jal 10.07"

0.07 N Sunspot 10.05"

2.1 Miles NNW Downtown Carlsbad 9.86"

Atoka - 5 S Artesia 9.40"

Sacramento Peak Observatory 9.34"

Ocha Climate 9.20"

Hobbs MesoNet 9.01"

Increasing Chances For T-Storms & Cooler Next Week.

Next week looks increasingly more promising as far as our chances for getting wet are concerned. The forecast models shift the Sonoran Heat Ridge north of New Mexico by the middle of next week, allowing a rich flow of subtropical moisture from Mexico, and low-level Gulf moisture from Texas to work its way northward into the state. 

A lot of media and social media hype continues to rage on about this year's El Niño being a Super El Niño. I'm sorry, but at this point in time this is more speculation, guessing, and exaggeration than fact. I don't dispute the fact that this has the potential to be a very strong El Niño, but will it be the strongest on record, even beating the 1877 El Niño? We won't know this until this fall or even winter. 

So the big question on everyone's mind is whether or not this monsoon and continued developing El Niño will be enough to finally break our six-year-long drought, and/or produce excessive rainfall as happened in 2013 and 2014? Those years will be very hard to beat. 

The all-time wettest year in New Mexico's history was 1941, which was an El Niño year. So far this summer it has been a typical hot El Niño summer in New Mexico. Much of the western U.S. continues to suffer from severe drought, and next week will be a scorcher.

NWS Forecasts.

Rainfall totals for 1941 include:

Whitetail NWS Climate COOP Station (SE of Ruidoso) 62.51" (New Mexico Record Highest Rainfall).

Cloudcroft NWS Climate COOP Station 48.12"

Portales NWS Climate COOP Station 44.10"

Arabella NWS Climate COOP Station 43.74"

Carlsbad Caverns Visitor Center NWS Climate COOP Station 43.72"

Elida NWS Climate COOP Station 43.42"

Mayhill NWS Climate COOP Station 42.96"

Pine Springs NWS Climate COOP Station - Guadalupe Mtns Natl Park 42.47"

Mountain Park NWS Climate COOP Station 39.92"

Wolf Canyon NWS Climate COOP Station 39.00"

Clayton WSO/Climate COOP Station 37.62"

Corona NWS Climate COOP Station 36.61"

Tatum NWS Climate COOP Station 36.49"

Artesia NWS Climate COOP Station 36.31"

Lake Avalon NWS Climate COOP Station 36.21"

Lake McMillian NWS Climate COOP Station 36.19"

Mescalero NWS Climate COOP Station 35.19"

Lovington NWS Climate COOP Station 35.11"

Tucumcari NWS Climate COOP Station 34.94"

Pasamonte NWS Climate COOP Station 34.12"

Carlsbad NWS Climate COOP Station 33.84"

Des Moines NMWS Climate Station 33.42"

Elk NWS Climate COOP Station - East of Mayhill 33.17"

Roswell WSO - At the old Municipal Airport 32.90"

Pinos Altos NWS Climate COOP Station 32.84"

Hagerman NWS Climate COOP Station 32.66"

Hobbs NWS Climate COOP Station 32.19"

Loving NWS Climate COOP Station 31.94"

Capitan NWS Climate COOP Station 31.54"

Hope NWS Climate COOP Station 31.13"

Chama NWS Climate COOP Station 30.95"

Los Alamos NWS Climate COOP Station 30.34"

Vaughn NWS Climate COOP Station 30.29"

Raton NWS Climate COOP Station 30.25"

Alamogordo NWS Climate COOP Station 29.37"

Las Vegas NWS Climate COOP Station 28.21"

Red River NWS Climate COOP Station 25.68"

Fort Stanton NWS Climate COOP Station 25.63"

Silver City NWS Climate COOP Station 24.74"

Cimarron NWS Climate COOP Station 23.66"

Tularosa NWS Climate COOP Station 23.65"

Magdalena NWS Climate COOP Station 21.52"

White Sands Natl Monument NWS Climate COOP Station 20.89"

Las Cruces NMSU NWS Climate COOP Station 19.60"

Lordsburg NWS Climate COOP Station 18.81"

Farmington NWS Climate COOP Station 18.44"

Socorro NWS Climate COOP Station 17.65"

Elephant Butte Dam NWS Climate COOP Station 16.70"

Albuquerque NWS ThreadEX Station 15.88"

El Paso NWS ThreadEX Station 15.65". Their wettest year was 1884, 18.29"

Deming NWS Climate COOP Station 14.89"

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
251 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Low (20-30%) chance of showers/storms this afternoon over
  portions of the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos. Isolated
  (15-20%) storms will be possible over the Big Bend again on
  Wednesday.

- Warmer than average temperatures persist throughout the work
  week, then a more  pronounced cooling trend with an increased
  chance of showers/storms by the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

An upper-level ridge remains centered over the Four Corners region
this afternoon. Deep layer subsidence is keeping skies mostly
sunny with dry conditions over the majority of our forecast area
this afternoon. The exception could be down in Terrell County and
portions of the Big Bend later this afternoon where a weak
shortwave impulse rounding the southeastern periphery of the ridge
could aid in the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
We will maintain 10-20% POPs over this portion of our CWA through
the late afternoon hours. The upper ridge will otherwise remain
the dominant feature across our region through Wednesday night.
Isolated showers/storms may develop over the southern Big Bend
again Wednesday afternoon, but dry weather conditions are
otherwise forecast to remain prevalent. Lows tonight and Wednesday
night are mostly expected to range in the 60s to mid 70s. Highs
Wednesday afternoon should reach into the mid 90s to around 100
degrees for most locations, except around 90 degrees over the
higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Very warm and dry conditions continue to be expected through the end
of the work week owing to an upper-level ridge of high pressure over
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. Afternoon highs are forecast to
range from the mid 90s to lower triple digits Thursday and Friday.
Some spots along the Rio Grande look to see readings between 105 and
110 degrees on these days. It is worth stressing the increased risk
of heat-related illness if you must be outside for an extended
period of time under these conditions. To protect yourself from
the heat, be sure to drink plenty of water/electrolyte beverages,
take frequent breaks under shade or inside a building with air
conditioning, and wear light-weight/light-colored clothing. Aside
from the heat, surface troughing, southeasterly upslope flow, and
disturbances aloft yield a low (10-30%) chance of isolated
showers/storms over portions of the Davis Mountains/Marfa Plateau
region and Guadalupe Mountains both days. Additional convection
may develop across portions of southeast New Mexico Friday evening
as a surface lee cyclone passes to our north.

The aforementioned upper-level ridge of high pressure shifts towards
the Central Rockies this weekend, allowing for high temperatures to
cool a few degrees by Saturday. Shortwave impulses embedded within
the periphery of the ridge provides upper-level moisture and forcing
for ascent, increasing storm chances across much of the area on
Sunday. At this time, the best chances currently look to reside in
and around the Davis Mountains. Increased cloud cover and persistent
southeasterly upslope flow yield cooler temperatures, with highs
generally in the low-to-mid 90s Sunday and Monday.

Greening

&&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED

National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
113 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through
  the week. A low to moderate risk of flash flooding exists on
  area burn scars each day. A low risk of severe storms exists on
  Thursday across northeast NM.

- Hotter temperatures through the weekend will result in a
  moderate heat risk across lower elevation locations, especially
  for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or
  hydration.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

High pressure aloft has started building more over northwestern NM
with overall higher PWATs of 0.8 to 1.0 inch in this region. Some
spokes of relatively drier air have rotated into the southeastern
half of the state, lowering theta-E values and convective potential
there. This will keep the northwestern half of NM favored for storms
through the evening with very slow clockwise steering flow around
the upper high. The slow storm motions will allow for heavy
downpours, but northwestern areas will have a lot of dry sub-cloud
air to contend with (surface dewpoints in the 30`s and low 40`s) and
overcome, so virga and dry storms with gusty and erratic winds will
be of concern there. Storms will slowly propagate into valleys and
lowlands through the evening via outflows and mesoscale cold pools,
but again overall storm motion will be sluggish, often at 5 mph or
less.

By Wednesday, the upper high will elongate westward from western NM
into the Pacific. This will allow drier air to start wrapping into
northwestern NM while a southwest-to-northeast oriented corridor re-
establishes itself over the state. Consequently, storms will reduce
over northwestern areas Wednesday while expanding more eastward off
of the Sangre de Cristos during the afternoon and early evening with
remaining southwestern and central zones replaying similar to today.
Temperatures will gain a degree or two in many zones, posing minor
to locally moderate heat impacts with lots of 90`s being observed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 103 PM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Into Thursday the high will remain elongated on a west-east axis,
centering just offshore of southern CA. This will actually introduce
a modest speed max aloft (50-60 kt at 300 mb) that will nose its way
toward the Four Corners. This will introduce enough momentum aloft
over northwestern NM, enough to mix down some drier air and breezy
west winds (gusts to 25 mph). This drier air will shut down storms
in northwestern NM Thursday afternoon, but remaining areas should
still observe isolated to scattered storms.

The upper high builds its centroid back over NM on Friday with more
dry air pivoting into the state from the northwest. This will
further eat away at our storm coverage on Friday with the
southwestern, south central and northeastern high country still left
supporting scattered afternoon cells. The aforementioned speed max
aloft will be weakening as it traverses CO into KS on Friday, so
surface breezes are not projected to be quite as high as on
Thursday.

This jet on Friday looks to usher a shortwave trough into the
southern plains, that could send convection into northeastern NM
Friday night while setting the stage for more storms along and east
of the Sangre de Cristos on Saturday, as moisture and upslope flow
could increase there. High pressure would start to build north of NM
into Saturday, and more-so into Sunday and Monday. This will allow a
seepage of subtropical moisture into the southern half of NM early
next week. The shortwave in northeastern NM on Friday could add some
enhancement to storm development as it pushes southwestward through
the weekend, but there is fairly low confidence on the trajectory of
this feature so far out. For now, the POPs favor northeastern zones
Saturday, shifting toward southern high terrain areas Sunday and
Monday while warm to hot (near to slightly above normal)
temperatures prevail.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1134 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1127 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms in mountain areas starting today
   persisting through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms over the
   lowlands, mainly west of the Rio Grande Valley.

 - Lowland temperatures remaining hot through Saturday with highs
   around 98-102; except highs Thursday/Friday 101-106.

 - Increase in thunderstorm coverage by Sunday and Monday with
   somewhat cooler temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The ever-so-persistent high pressure will still be overhead the
northwest part of NM today but will begin meandering westward over
SW AZ and SoCal tomorrow. Moisture stays trapped under the high each
day through Saturday allowing for daily thunderstorm chances.
Scattered mountain storms will initiate over the higher terrain,
spreading outflows to the lowlands which may trigger off some
isolated storms. PWs will range from 1" to around 1.2" with the
better moisture being seen Friday and Saturday. Weak steering flow
and insufficient shear with this high pressure will lead to slow
storm motions which will add to the flooding threat with storms. By
Friday and into Saturday the high looks to shift north over Utah and
Colorado. An inverted trough looks to cross the Gulf and may head up
to the Borderland by the end of the weekend and early next week
which could bring more moisture (PWs of 1.2" - 1.3") and areawide
rain chances. High temperatures stay near seasonal average today
and tomorrow but hotter temperatures expected Thursday through
Saturday, but Friday looks the hottest right now. Temperatures in
El Paso and the lower valley Thursday and Friday will be flirting
with Heat Advisory criteria (highs of 105F+).

&&

Looking Back At The 2014 Summer Monsoon.

September 22, 2014.

Carlsbad, New Mexico.

NM 14-Day Rainfall Totals.

(As of Sept 25, 2014).

2014 Summer Monsoon Rainfall Totals.

(June 15 - Sept 30, 2014).

Percent of Average Precipitation.

(June 15 - Sept 30, 2014).

Drought Monitor Conditions Summer 2014.

(Before & After The Rains).

Record/Historic flash flooding occurred in the Dark Canyon Arroyo that runs through the heart of Carlsbad, New Mexico, Sunday night just before midnight. The flood gauge water depth in the arroyo peaked at 21.62 feet. This ties the second highest depth ever measured in the arroyo. This depth is second only to the August 23, 1966 record of 22.00 feet. At the peak depth Sunday night, the water was raging down the arroyo at an incredible 92,700 cubic feet a second (cfs). I'm not sure, but this may be the highest flow on record, if not the second highest. It's believed that an estimated 100,000 cubic feet a second occurred in Dark Canyon during the flash flooding in September 1941.

During the flash flood of April 4, 2004, the arroyo reached a depth of 21.62 feet. Last September 12th, it reached a depth of 17.85 feet. During the flooding of June 24, 1986, it reached a depth of 12.53 feet. And on September 26, 1980, it reached 12.10 feet.

There was a great deal of concern that the flood waters were going to top the Canal Street bridge near La Tienda Grocery Store in Carlsbad Sunday night...and with good reason. The flood waters came to within a foot of the bottom of the bridge of doing this. 

New Mexico Southeastern Plains Summer Monsoon Rainfall Totals.

(June 15 - September 30, 2014).

New Mexico Central Mountains Summer Monsoon Rainfall Totals.

(June 15 - September 30, 2014).

New Mexico Southern Desert.Summer Monsoon Rainfall Totals.

(June 15 - September 30, 2014).

New Mexico 

CoCoRaHS Monsoon Rainfall Totals.

(June 15 - September 30, 2014).

Public 14-Day Rainfall Totals.
(Sept 10-23, 2014).

2 Miles East Malaga 25.00"
Durante Rd 1 Mile East Malaga 22.25"
Derrick Rd/Old Cavern Hwy 21.50"
Between Kincaid Ranch Rd & Rockin R Red Rd 17.70"
Kennel Rd 16.70"
South 6th St Carlsbad 16.50"

Rainfall totals are courtesy of Woods Hougton and the Eddy County Extension Service - Agriculture. 

National Weather Service.

 Climate COOP Station September Totals.

NWS El Paso

NWS Midland

NWS Albuquerque

Carlsbad 13.10" 

(New Sept Record - Previous 12.27" In 1980).

(Also The Greatest Monthly Total On Record).

Elk - East Of Mayhill 10.48"

Seminole, TX 9.15"

Hobbs 7.98"

Cloudcroft 7.62"

Artesia - 6 Miles South 7.37"

Tatum 5.28"

Roswell Airport 4.74"

September 2014 Summary.

Remnant moisture from four former Hurricanes pumped incredible amounts of tropical moisture into southeastern New Mexico, and nearby areas beginning the week of September 8th. During the period from Sept 10th through the 23rd, I received one report of 25.50"+ of rainfall at a farm located one mile east of Malaga. I haven't had any follow-up information from that location, so the total rainfall that fell there, and in other locations in Loving, Malaga, and Otis, in September is unknown at this time.

Heaviest September Totals-

1 Mile East Malaga 25.50+"

Durante Rd 1 Mile East Malaga 22.25+"

Derrick Rd/Old Cavern Hwy 21.50+"

Bowl Raws Located Below Guadalupe Pk 19.13"

Pine Springs GMNP MesoNet 17.85"

Between Kincaid Ranch Rd & Rockin R Red Rd 17.70+"

Kennel Rd 16.70+"

South 6th St Carlsbad 16.50+"

McKittrick Canyon 15.53"

Pine Springs - Pinery Raws 15.41"

Paduca Raws - Near The WIPP Site 13.85"

Queen Raws 13.70"

17.1 NW Carlsbad 13.17"

Carlsbad NWS Climate Co-Op Station 13.10"

Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns 12.86"

N5MJ SE Carlsbad 12.79"

Dog Canyon Raws 12.48"

1.2 W Monument 11.67"

Dark Canyon Rd 11.55"

Red Hills Gas Plant - 21 WMW Jal 11.50"

Jal Climate 11.38"

Bonito Lake - Runnels Stable 11.16"

Queen 33.3 WSW Carlsbad 10.95"

1.9 NW Carlsbad 10.80"

6.6 NW Jal 10.07"

0.07 N Sunspot 10.05"

Roswell 0.3 SSW 9.87"

2.1 Miles NNW Downtown Carlsbad 9.86"

Atoka - 5 S Artesia 9.40"

Sacramento Peak Observatory 9.34"

Ocha Climate 9.20"

Hobbs MesoNet 9.01"

Links to my blog posts on this event.

Flash Flood Update - Sunday 9-21-2014

Rainfall Totals & Historic Flash Flooding On Dark Canyon - 9-23-2014

Flash Flooding Update 9-25-2014

Record Setting SE NM Rainfall Totals Oct 1, 2014

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.