Seasonably Hot With Mountain T-Storms.

- July 06, 2026

July 5, 2026.

East Dayton Rd- Near Lakewood, NM.

Severe T-Storm Impacts Mayhill Area Friday Afternoon.

A severe thunderstorm produced quarter-inch (1" in diameter) hail and flash flooding west of Mayhill Friday afternoon. Radar estimates and weather station reports indicated that one to three inches of rain fell west and north of Mayhill, producing localized flash flooding. Not unusual for this time of the year in the Sacramento Mountains.

Summertime thunderstorms can and do dump heavy amounts of rain across New Mexico in most years. Sometimes this causes localized flash flooding even outside of the mountains and burn scar areas. During these afternoon and evening cloudbursts, rainfall totals can easily reach or exceed one to two inches per hour.

Seasonably hot temps are in our forecast for the southeastern plains today through the week. Highs today and Tuesday will range from 98 to 100. Highs Wednesday through Friday will range from 101 to 105. Heat Advisories may be needed across southern and southeastern New Mexico later this week. It appears that our chances for measurable rainfall have ended for now. Scattered thunderstorms may return next Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast across the Sacramento Mountains this afternoon into early this evening. Locally heavy rainfall may once again produce localized flash flooding. The threat for burn scar flash flooding may become an issue today through Wednesday.

Some of the thunderstorms that form over the state's mountains will drift out into the lower elevations today into the middle of the week. High-based dry thunderstorms will produce erratic, strong wind gusts and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, but little rainfall over the Four Corners Area today and Tuesday. The Sacramento and Gila Mountains will have the best chances of getting wet today. Thunderstorm activity will decrease over the mountains by midweek but won't totally go away.

Long-range forecasts keep New Mexico warmer than normal through the next two weeks with a continued chance of hit-and-miss thunderstorms. The Sonoran heat ridge will wander around the Desert Southwest during this time, controlling who gets wet and who does not. The northern mountains, the western mountains, and the Sacramento mountains are favored for the best chances of getting rain. The state's lower elevations won't be completely left out, but thunderstorm activity will be more isolated and of mostly the hit and miss varitey.

Selected July rainfall totals as of 8 AM MDT this Monday morning.

Cool Pines RV Park PWS NW of Mayhill 4.80"

Mayhill PWS DW7680 3.42"

Walker Canyon Cabin PWS NW of Mayhill 1.96"

Portales CoCoRaHS 2.9 SE 1.87"

Tatumn CoCoRaHS 0.9 E 1.50"

Monument CoCoRaHS 1.2 W 1.31"

Capitan CoCoRaHS 1.3 WSW 1.22"

Bell Canyon PWS NW of Mayhill 1.10"

Mayhill NMCC 1.10"

Elida CoCoRaHS 5.7 W 1.00"

3 Cross PWS N of Flying H Ranch .79"

Lake Arthur CoCoRaHS 2.5 ESE .70"

Las Cruces CoCoRaHS 2.5 S .67"

Atoka XL AWS 2.5 S .64"

Capitan CoCoRaHS 5.5 NE .61"

Deming Municipal Airport AWOS .54"

Smokey Bear Raws - Ruidoso .52"

Runyan Ranches NMCC .48"

Queen Raws .48"

Artesia AG Science Center NMCC .46"

Mayhill Raws .45"

Dexter XL AWS 1.25 E .37"

Mountain Park NWS Climate COOP Station .34"

Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 1.8 SW .24"

El Paso International Airport ASOS .24"

Cloudcroft NWS Climate COOP Station .22"

Sunspot WSMR .19"

Carlsbad CoCoRaHS 2.1 NNW .17"

Ruidoso NWS Climate COOP Station .14"

Timberon PWS Neighborhood .14"

Timberon CoCoRaHS 0.3 NNW .07"

Silver City Municipal Airport AWOS .06"

Cedar Crest CoCoRaHS 0.5 NNW .05"

Dunken Raws .03"

Hobbs Municipal Airport AWOS 0.00"

Alamogordo Municipal Airport AWOS 0.0"

Santa Fe Municipal Airport Trace

Carlsbad Municipal Airport ASOS Trace

Roswell Industrial Air Center ASOS Trace

Albuquerque International Airport ASOS Trace

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 623 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026 - Isolated storms are in store this afternoon and early evening across the southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, and higher terrain. A storm or two may become strong capable of producing damaging winds. - Warmer than average temperatures persist throughout the work week, then a more pronounced cooling trend with an increased chance of showers/storms by weekend. &&

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
525 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 525 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Diurnal rounds of showers and thunderstorms developing over the
  high terrain midday before spreading across adjacent lower
  elevation areas later in the day early to mid this week.
  Moderate risk for flash flooding on area burn scars. Lower
  coverage of showers and thunderstorms late this week.

- Hotter temperatures late this week will result in a moderate
  heat risk across lower elevation locations, especially for those
  sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration.

&&

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
521 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 AM MDT Mon Jul 6 2026

 - Isolated mountain thunderstorms early this afternoon, with
   storms spreading to the lowlands late afternoon into the
   evening. Gusty outflow winds likely with these storms,
   especially over the Lordsburg Playa late this afternoon.

 - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in mountain areas starting
   Tuesday persisting through mid-week. The lowlands will also see
   isolated storms each day as outflow winds move off the
   mountains. Areas west of the Rio Grande will see the better
   storm coverage.

 - By Wednesday, widespread triple digit temperatures return to
   the lowlands with 100-105 degrees common through the end of the
   week.

&&