Flood Watch For Parts Of West Texas - Scattered T-Storms/Heavy Rainfall This Week.
Tank Battery Fire.
Carlsbad, New Mexico.
Scattered thunderstorms developed before noon east of the Pecos River in Chaves and Eddy Counties. By late afternoon, these had formed a cluster of storms that developed along an outflow boundary in Lea and Eddy Counties.
Thunder was heard off and on in the Carlsbad area from 4 PM through 9:30 PM. The Carlsbad Airport ASOS was the big winner rainfall-wise with a 24-hour total as of midnight last night of 1.92". This broke the previous 24-hour rainfall record at the airport for July 12th (1930-2026), which was .97" in 1950. The Carlsbad NMWS Climate COOP Station recorded .93" on July 12th, 1990 (1905-2021). This station was closed on January 28, 2021.
Some of the higher rainfall totals from yesterday afternoon and evening include:
Carlsbad Airport ASOS 1.92"
PWS in south Carlsbad (Bush House) 1.77"
The Paduca Raws near the WIPP Site 1.55"
PWS in southeast Carlsbad (Sunnyview1) 1.48"
Carlsbad SWCD NMCC near the "Y" 1.37"
XL AWS 9.5 south of Carlsbad 1.35"
Black River XL AWS 0.5 NE 1.33"
Public report of 1.33" on Old Cavern Hwy (4200 block)
XL AWS 2.25 south of Atoka 1.15"
East Carlsbad PWS (Ridgecrest Subdivision) .97"
Carlsbad CoCoRaHS 1.9 NW .96"
West Carlsbad PWS (Ryans House) .95"
West Carlsbad (Jones St. in Happy Valley) .95"
I recorded 0.88" here at our home in NW Carlsbad, bringing my July total to 1.05", which is 126% of normal for the date. My year-to-date total stands at 6.99", which is 141% of normal.
The Carlsbad Airport ASOS has recorded 1.92" for July so far; all of that came yesterday afternoon, bringing its year-to-date total to 5.87". Normal for the date is 4.88". Radar estimated that 2.00" to 2.50" of rain fell just east of the airport along Derrick Road.
Our summer monsoon is underway, and today and tomorrow will see the most activity in Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. A mid-level easterly wave/upper level low will approach West Texas today and tomorrow, and this will keep thunderstorms very active. This easterly wave/upper low will move into northern Mexico or possibly southern and the western half of New Mexico by Thursday, increasing the chances for rain there.
The computer forecast models are struggling in their handling of this potential this week, so this leaves the gate open for a lot of uncertainty in our forecasts. The system in Texas will have to be watched closely to see if it tracks further north or west. Further north would mean more rain for us and further west less. If it comes further north towards us, then our flash flood threat would increase this week.
Thunderstorms today and the rest of the week will have the potential to dump very heavy rainfall in a short period of time, with the threat of flash flooding in those locations where this occurs this week. As we saw yesterday afternoon and evening, a quick 1" to 2"+ rainfall totals can be expected with the possibility of heavier amounts. By the end of the week, I think we may see some areas that end up getting 3" or 4" rainfall totals, maybe more depending on the storm track.
Subtropical moisture will continue to stream northward from Mexico and northeastward into the area and from the Gulf today into the rest of the week. Thus, scattered to at times numerous afternoon and nighttime thunderstorms will dot southeastern New Mexico's landscape this week. Southeastern New Mexico and the nearby Trans Pecos are the most likely to get heavy rain, with the risk of flash flooding today into the rest of this week.
Current forecasts indicate that the area from Sanderson southeast to around Del Rio may possibly end up with 6" to 10" of rain by the end of this week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains today into Wednesday. Hit-and-miss variety, but any thunderstorm that dumps heavy rain may also cause localized flash flooding, especially over and near the burn scars. Your chances for more widespread showers and thunderstorms will go up starting Thursday and continue into the weekend. Heavy rains and flash flooding will be a concern.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 632 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 629 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 - Daily scattered showers and storms are expected through the week. - The potential for multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding, especially south of the I-20 Corridor. - Below normal temperatures are expected through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 The moisture finally arrived yesterday as we saw scattered showers and storms develop. Activity increases today and tomorrow as a weak disturbance moves into West Texas. The disturbance will be slow to move out due to weak steering flow. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Currently, the threat does not appear widespread enough to issue a flood watch but we will continue to monitor for the need. Increased clouds and rainfall keep highs in the 80s today and Tuesday, unseasonably cool for mid July. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 144 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 The end of the week is a continuation of the short term. Large high pressure remains well north of the CWA providing little subsidence to cap convection. A deep southeasterly flow from the gulf continues advecting moisture into West Texas and eastern New Mexico and daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere enough to provide good rainfall chances. Models are showing convection over Central Texas creates and MCV that slowly moves west late in the week. This creates additional instability and rain chances become high (>60%) in the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos. Flash flooding will continue to be a concern, especially in the Davis Mountains and along the Rio Grande where many summer vacationers will be camping near flood prone areas. Clouds and rain continue below normal temperatures as highs remain in the 80s through the end of the week. A drier and warmer trend begins early next week bringing conditions more climatologically normal. Hennig &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 540 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 534 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 - There is a low to moderate risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars over the next several days. - Gusty and erratic winds and small hail will accompany isolated to scattered showers and storms today and Tuesday, with more widespread storms likely later in the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1247 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 An upper high remains in place over the upper Midwest, with dry air underneath the high and moisture rotating around it. Some of this dry air will be advected in from the northeast today, decreasing the overall coverage of showers and storms from the northeast plains southwestward to the Rio Grande Valley. As a result, coverage today will focus in the southeastern plains and in the northwest high terrain. Severe weather is unlikely given the lack of shear and modest instability, but gusty and erratic outflow winds can be expected as always. The overall pattern remains largely unchanged going into Tuesday, but the dry slot will migrate off to the southeast. This will increase the coverage of storms in central NM, including during the evening hours as as a shortwave treks across the northern half of the state from northeast to southwest. High temperatures both Monday and Tuesday will generally be within 5 degrees of seasonal averages, with slightly above temps across the northwest and slightly below average temps in the southeast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1247 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 A more active monsoon pattern is on tap for the second half of the workweek into the weekend. Temperatures will be quite pleasant for the middle of the summer with highs in the 80s and low 90s in most areas. Plus, daily rounds of showers and storms will help to cool things off in the afternoons and evenings. Storms will continue to focus over the western half of the state on Wednesday and Thursday as an easterly wave approaches. Dry air and subsidence out ahead of the wave will supress convective activity across the eastern plains during this period, despite the 1"+ PWATs. The easterly wave is progged to stall out over New Mexico Friday into Saturday, increasing the coverage of light to moderate showers beyond the afternoon hours and into the overnight. This along with more extensive cloud cover may inhibit storms during the afternoon hours, but the moist atmosphere will be able to support widespread showers and storms with efficient rainfall rates. The monsoon high will redevelop over the Four Corners this weekend, recycling moisture each day. All ensemble systems have the high drifting south and centering itself over New Mexico early next week. The gradual intensification of the high will likely bring temps back up to near seasonal normals. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 529 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 515 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 - Increasing storm chances through Tuesday with a low threat of flash flooding. - Just isolated, unorganized thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. - Increase in storm activity again Friday and Saturday. - Temperatures running around 3 to 8 degrees below normal all week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1003 PM MDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Upper high has drifted up over eastern Colorado this evening. Large areas of dry air have moved in, though one pocket of moisture sits just east of the CWA, while another patch of sub-tropical moisture has forced its way north over far southern New Mexico as deformation zone to our south weakens. Hence some later evening convection has been able to form over our southern zones of El Paso County over to Hidalgo County. Latest HRRR run shows this convection done by around 06Z-08Z. Monday through Thursday...the pattern for much of the week ahead looks unsettled. By mid-week the upper high moves over South Dakota/Nebraska and an old cut-off low retrogrades westward back to Texas. This will not import much new moisture, but will allow residual moisture to remain over the CWA. Thus, Monday through Thursday, expect scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms to continue each day. Storms should be pretty random and mostly unorganized. PWs will remain around 1.0-1.2 inches (around 100-120% of normal) Monday and Tuesday, so a few storms could produce heavy rainfall and minor flooding. PWs fall to 0.8-1.0 inches Wed/Thur with even more isolated storms. Friday through Sunday...retrograded upper low moves over west Texas and eventually the Chihuahuan Desert by Saturday and Sunday. Moisture (PW) reverts back to 1.0-1.3 inches through this period so expect an uptick again in thunderstorms. A lot of potential activity during this period will depend upon if/how many short waves rotate west across the broad cyclonic circulation of the upper low. &&
Flood Watch
Flood Watch National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 TXZ067>070-075-082-274>282-140445- /O.NEW.KMAF.FA.A.0004.260714T0300Z-260717T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-Reeves County Plains- Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster-Chisos Basin-Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County- Including the cities of Sanderson, Rankin, Chisos Basin, Crane, Lajitas, Fort Davis, Marfa, Alpine, Castolon, Big Bend National Park, Monahans, McCamey, Presidio, Pecos, Dryden, Big Lake, Fort Stockton, Marathon, and Panther Junction 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of southwest and western Texas, including the following areas, in southwest Texas, Central Brewster, Chinati Mountains, Chisos Basin, Davis Mountains, Davis Mountains Foothills, Lower Brewster County, Marfa Plateau, Pecos, Presidio Valley and Terrell. In western Texas, Crane, Reagan, Reeves County Plains, Upton and Ward. * WHEN...From 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected tonight through Thursday. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ 93Flood Watch National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1036 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 TXZ071>073-076>078-154-155-168>170-141230- /O.NEW.KSJT.FA.A.0006.260714T0300Z-260717T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Irion-Tom Green-Concho-Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-Mason- Including the cities of San Angelo, Mertzon, Koockville, Eldorado, Sherwood, Barnhart, Fort Mckavett, Cleo, Junction, Harkeyville, Pontotoc, Fredonia, Rochelle, Live Oak, Hext, Arden, Katemcy, Lowake, Menard, Mason, Streeter, Erna, Ozona, Segovia, Roosevelt, San Saba, Wall, Chappel, Lohn, Voca, Cherokee, Paint Rock, Sonora, Eden, London, Brady, Fife, Carlsbad, Telegraph, and Loyal Valley 1036 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of West Central Texas, including the following counties, Concho, Crockett, Irion, Kimble, Mason, McCulloch, Menard, San Saba, Schleicher, Sutton and Tom Green. * WHEN...From 9 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...There is a potential for life threatening flooding within the watch area. Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Extensive street flooding and flooding of creeks and rivers are possible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected over portions of West Central Texas through early Thursday evening. A series of upper-level disturbances will interact with an influx of tropical moisture across the region through much of this week. High precipitable water values will fuel highly efficient rain-producing storms, with model guidance indicating near-stationary clusters capable of producing 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain per hour. This could lead to storm totals of 2 to 5 inches over the Watch area with isolated areas seeing 8+ inches. The highest threat centers along the I-10 corridor, extending north into the southern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ TP
Today.
Tuesday.
Wednesday.
Thursday.
NWS Rainfall Forecasts.
(Today Through Thursday Morning).
National Blend Of Models (NBM) 10-Day Rainfall Forecast.
(As of 7 AM MDT This Morning).
(As of 7 AM MDT This Morning).
(As of 7 AM MDT This Morning).
(As of 11:30 PM Sunday Night).
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 944 AM MDT Mon Jul 13 2026 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Chaves County... Roswell Air Center 41 MPH 0159 PM 07/12 ...Colfax County... Raton Crews Airport 46 MPH 0424 PM 07/12 ...Curry County... Clovis Muni Airport 45 MPH 1021 AM 07/12 ...Guadalupe County... Newkirk 8.7n 42 MPH 0645 PM 07/12 ...Lincoln County... Nogal 5 NW 47 MPH 1245 PM 07/12 ...Mora County... Watrous 40 MPH 0700 PM 07/12 ...Quay County... Endee 2 SW 53 MPH 0414 PM 07/12 Tucumcari Muni Airport 46 MPH 0531 PM 07/12 ...Rio Arriba County... Espanola 4 NW (Black Mesa) 41 MPH 0334 PM 07/12 ...San Miguel County... Las Vegas Muni Airport 44 MPH 0750 PM 07/12 I-25 @ Rowe (NMDOT) 40 MPH 0900 PM 07/12 ...Santa Fe County... Santa Fe Muni Airport 44 MPH 0921 PM 07/12 Santa Fe 3 ENE 40 MPH 0922 PM 07/12 ...Socorro County... Little Burro (WSMR) 40 MPH 0220 PM 07/12 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Bernalillo County... EDGEWOOD 0.08 in 0906 AM 07/12 ...Chaves County... Roswell 19.3 N 0.76 in 0557 AM 07/13 Roswell No. 1 Portable 0.70 in 0840 AM 07/13 Roswell 28.5 NNE 0.35 in 0700 AM 07/13 Mesa 4 SW 0.34 in 0800 AM 07/13 Bitter Lake WL Refuge 14 NNE 0.34 in 0837 AM 07/13 Roswell Air Center 0.09 in 0851 AM 07/13 Roswell 5.1 N 0.06 in 0800 AM 07/13 ...Colfax County... Raton Crews Airport 0.17 in 0853 AM 07/13 ...Curry County... Cannon Air Force Base 0.25 in 0755 AM 07/13 Clovis 3.3 E 0.21 in 0800 AM 07/13 Texico 13.6 N 0.10 in 0700 AM 07/13 ...Guadalupe County... Santa Rosa 12.1 SE 0.20 in 0700 AM 07/13 ...Lincoln County... Capitan 5.5 NE 0.32 in 0700 AM 07/13 Bonito Lake 5.4 SW 0.16 in 0905 AM 07/12 ...San Juan County... Farmington 2.3 NNE 0.32 in 0700 AM 07/13 Aztec 0.0 ESE 0.15 in 0700 AM 07/13 Bloomfield 0.8 NE 0.15 in 0700 AM 07/13 Farmington 4.7 ENE 0.15 in 0800 AM 07/13 Farmington 2.8 S 0.12 in 0800 AM 07/13 Farmington 1.4 WSW 0.11 in 0700 AM 07/13 Farmington 3.4 WSW 0.09 in 0700 AM 07/13 Aztec 0.7 WSW 0.08 in 0700 AM 07/13 Farmington 2.0 SW 0.08 in 0800 AM 07/13 Farmington Airport 0.07 in 0853 AM 07/13 ...San Miguel County... Bell Ranch 11 ENE 0.05 in 0905 AM 07/12 ...Taos County... Midnight 0.05 in 0837 AM 07/13 ...Torrance County... Encino 6 W 0.07 in 0700 AM 07/13 &&
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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