Rock & Roll Here We Go - Our Summer Monsoon Ramps Up This Weekend Into Next Week.
Hail Fog - East Of Cloudcroft.
Rock and roll, it's off to the races we go. Our summer monsoon will ramp up today into next week, producing beneficial, if not excessive, rainfall over parts of the state over the next seven days or so.
An elongated area of Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms (Slight Risk for SE Arizona) stretches from southern Arizona northeast into eastern New Mexico today. The primary severe weather hazards will be damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 58 mph (both wet and dry microbursts are possible), large hail, and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.
Heavy thunderstorm rains will be capable of producing localized flash flooding just about anywhere in the state over the next week, but especially in the mountains, the southwest, and eastern/southeastern parts of the state. Of particular concern will be the burn scars across the state, especially those in the Ruidoso area, including the recent Seven Cabins burn scar on the north side of the Capitan Mountains.
Over the next week or so, scattered to at times numerous showers and thunderstorms will be sprinkled across the Land of Enchantment, with the best chances of getting the heaviest rains across the mountains, southwestern New Mexico, and the eastern half of the state. By the end of this period of wet weather, localized storm totals could reach or exceed 3" to 4" in a few spots. Outside of this, most locations will see totals over the next week in the .50" to 1.00" range, give or take.
Take the rainfall map forecasts below with a grain of salt since the forecast models are struggling with the upcoming period of wet weather across the area. Some areas may end up getting way more rain than current forecasts are calling for, while other areas far less. You know the drill in New Mexico when it comes to rain and snow; it's either feast or famine.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms may persist well into the night in some cases.
A Flood Watch remains in effect today for parts of Lincoln County, particularly in the Ruidoso area. Localized flash flooding was noted there yesterday afternoon, and a more widespread threat for heavy thunderstorm rains and flash flooding will exist today and likely again Sunday. Rainfall rates in the stronger thunderstorms will be at least one inch per hour, if not more.
A Blowing Dust Advisory will be in effect from 4 PM - 9 PM MDT today for parts of southwestern New Mexico. Strong thunderstorm winds and outflow boundaries will create areas of blowing dust which may reduce the visibility down to 1/4 to 1 mile this afternoon and evening. We've already seen this happen in this area of the state over the past couple of days.
A few of the heavier rainfall totals from yesterday's crop of thunderstorms across the state include the following:
Ruidoso Downs PWS 1.85"
Silver City PWS WSW 1.55"
Grady NMCC N of Clovis 1.54"
Silver City CoCoRaHS 3.4 S 1.31"
Gavalin Ridge North HADS near Ruidoso Downs 1.26"
Alto 1 E 1.13"
Cloudcroft PWS SSE of town 1.12"
Gavalin Ridge North HADS 1.09"
North Ruidoso PWS 1.05"
Sacramento PWS .79"
Las Cruces CoCoRaHS 2.0 WSW .69"
Mayhill PWS .68"
Cloudcroft PWS in town .66"
South Fork Cedar Creek HADS .64"
Clovis CoCoRaHS 2.3 NNE .63"
Cloudcroft NWS Climate COOP Station .61"
Almogordo CoCoRaHS 2.4 NNE .56"
Alamogordo Municipal Airport AWOS .35"
High Rolls PWS .28"
Timberon PWS .10"
Ruidoso NWS Climate COOP Station .08"
After seeing high temps in the upper 90's to low 100s for weeks now, we get a break from the heat starting Sunday with forecast highs in the low to mid 90s Sunday through Tuesday. Highs Wednesday through Friday are expected to range from 85 to 90. The fly in the ointment will be the humidity because it is fixing to go up. The flies and mosquitoes will love this humid and wet weather. The little suckers have been vicious lately in southeastern New Mexico.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 612 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 - Near to below normal temperatures are expected into next week. - Shower/storm chances increase Sunday through early next week, especially south of the I-20 Corridor. The potential for multiple rounds of rain will increase the risk of flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 We start seeing the effects of cooler and moister air in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico today. The arrival of gulf air will be seen this afternoon as dewpoints could be as much as 10 degrees higher than yesterday. Thus temps today begin their downward slide holding to near normal with highs in the 90s in most locations. The continued southeasterly flow brings temps down further Sunday with widespread highs in the lower 90s and 80s in the higher elevations west of the Pecos River. An easterly wave moves up along the Rio Grande increasing rain chances beginning on Sunday. The best rain chances will be in the Big Bend but everywhere should see at least a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. Precipitable water values (PWATs) increase to near record values Sunday into next week. PWAT is a measure of the amount of water in the atmosphere so high PWATs indicate a potential for heavy rainfall and flooding. It is NOT a measure for the potential for rainfall so high PWATs do not necessarily mean widespread rain, it just means that if there is rain then it could be heavy. We will monitor for the potential of flood watch issuance. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 The long term forecast is an extension of what begins in the short term. An upper level high pressure system builds over the northern Great Plains, far enough north that a deep easterly flow gets established over Texas and New Mexico. Gulf moisture remains over the area and any heating or easterly disturbances will be enough to spark mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. There are no recognizable features seen in the models at this time that would focus convection in any particular area. PoPs are relatively high next week, perhaps an artifact of the ensembles having difficulty with scattered convection so I would hesitate about getting too excited about an extended period of strong rain chances. What it more likely indicates is that there is good chance that many locations will see some rainfall at some point next week, and locations getting several days of rainfall will be more isolated. Still, the rain in the forecast is a very welcome sign since we have been on a bit of a dry streak the past month and are again falling well below normal on rainfall amounts on the year. The increased rain and clouds next week provides many locations with highs only reaching the 80s which is 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The summer began cool before heating up the past several weeks. It is good to see cooler temperatures returning and an indication that this summer will not be as bad as many we have had recently. We are due for a break. Hennig &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 532 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 527 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 - There is a moderate risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars this weekend. - Scattered storms today will favor the central mountain chain eastward. Damaging outflow wind gusts may accompany a few storms. - Highs in the 90s to low 100s result in a moderate to locally major heat risk across lower elevations through Saturday, especially for those sensitive to heat, and without adequate cooling or hydration. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 116 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 Showers with embedded storms are developing tonight along a boundary that is draped across the eastern plains. The intensity of convection is on the low side, but there is a non-zero chance of some very localized flash flooding with storms that are riding along this boundary and moving over the same exact locations. Southeast to east winds will continue to advect sfc moisture westward today, into the Rio Grande Valley where dewpoints will surge into the lower 50s by the early morning hours. However, this shallow moisture will mix out in the afternoon, keeping storm coverage to a minimum along and west of the RGV. The upper-high will migrate northward into eastern Utah today as well, with northerly steering flow over New Mexico. Initiation of storms in the early afternoon will favor the peaks of the central mountain chain so they may become terrain-tied, slowly moving southward through the afternoon. This is concerning for the Ruidoso area since storms could repeatedly re-generate over the South Fork burn scar. The RRFS Local Probability Matched Mean (LMPP) shows a bullseye of nearly 3" over Sierra Blanca peak, but keeps the heaviest rainfall just off the sensitive burn scars. Hi-res models are showing storms clustering together in the highlands and plains east of the central mountain chain during the late afternoon and evening and there should be just enough shear to maintain this cluster as it pushes southeastward and accelerates downhill. Damaging outflow wind gusts will be a concern with this feature, including the Roswell area between roughly 8PM and 11PM. Storms along the central mountain chain will send outflow boundaries westward in the evening and overnight, increasing sfc humidities. At the same time, flow aloft will shift around to the east, helping to advect more mid-level moisture and bring PWATs up to around 120% of normal. This will set the stage for a more active day Sunday with scattered showers and storms areawide. The influx of moisture along with increased cloud cover will help to drop temps a few degrees Sunday afternoon, keeping the major heat risk at bay, even across the Northwest Plateau. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 116 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 An active monsoon pattern is in store for next week. The upper-high will migrate into the Midwest on Monday with easterly flow remaining entrenched over New Mexico. Moisture will be most plentiful across the southern half of New Mexico where PWATs will be slightly above normal. A dry airmass on the west side of the upper-high will attempt to rotate in northeast NM, keeping convection to a minimum here. Easterly shortwaves throughout the week will enhance convection and the timing/location of these smaller features are poorly resolved by global models at this point. An inverted trough will move west across the southern plains mid- next week, reaching the southern Rockies around Thursday. The forcing and moisture this easterly wave brings will help to further enhance convection and could be the first monsoonal surge of the season. Looking at global ensembles, long-term guidance is in good agreement that there will be a feature, but exactly where it sets up is uncertain. The GEFS brings this wave right into New Mexico and favors a wetter pattern whereas the EPS and GEPS keep it further south, keeping most of the deeper moisture south of New Mexico. The influx of moisture will keep temps near to slightly below seasonal averages most of next week, with highs generally in the upper 80s and low 90s. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 527 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 510 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 - Scattered mountain and isolated lowland thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Sunday with gusty outflow winds and blowing dust being the main hazards. - Lowland high temperatures will be in the upper 90s and low triple digits Saturday before cooling slightly into the upper 80s and low 90s. - Thunderstorm chances will increase Monday and Tuesday with a potential for moderate to heavy rainfall near stronger storms which could lead to flooding. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1031 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2026 High pressure will start shifting over the Four Corners Saturday, then starts shifting over the Rockies and northern Plains for Sunday. Continued chances for thunderstorms focusing over the area mountains with more isolated to potentially scattered activity in the lowlands for the weekend. One more triple digit day Saturday with many lowland locations seeing upper 90s and lower triple digits for highs. Highs dip below average temperatures for this time of year throughout the upcoming work week. The Borderland will be under east flow Sunday through around Tuesday. A good southeast fetch from the Gulf will entrain above average moisture Monday and Tuesday with PWs of 1.3- 1.4". Monday and Tuesday look to be the most active days with the best coverage. Biggest thing to watch will be any flooding with thunderstorms. Models are still suggesting an inverted trough pushing towards the area by midweek next week or so which could bring more potential for flooding. &&
My hat goes off to Brittany Zimmerman; good job, excellent decision, Mom!!! She shot these two videos of flash flooding on Cedar Creek in Ruidoso Friday afternoon. She made the right choice and opted to turn around rather than cross that flooded road. This is what "Turn Around - Don't drown" is all about.
Rainfall Forecasts.
(From 6 AM Today - 6 AM MDT Tuesday).
(Valid Today - Wednesday, July 15th).
(As of 7 AM MDT Saturday, July 11, 2026).
MRMS 72-Hour Rainfall Totals.
(As of 7 AM MDT Saturday, July 11, 2026).
(As of 7 AM MDT Saturday, July 11, 2026).
New Mexico MesoWest 72-Hour Rainfall Totals.
(As of 7 ANM MDT, Saturday, July 11, 2026).
(As of 9 PM MDT Friday, July 10, 2026).
(As of 7 AM MDT Saturday, July 11, 2026).
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 952 AM MDT Sat Jul 11 2026 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Bernalillo County... Albuquerque Intl Sunport 51 MPH 0333 AM 07/11 Canoncito 41 MPH 0410 PM 07/10 Albuquerque 41 MPH 0315 AM 07/11 ...Curry County... Grady 50 MPH 0820 PM 07/10 Clovis 47 MPH 0906 PM 07/10 ...De Baca County... Yeso 10NNW 47 MPH 0540 PM 07/10 East Fort Sumner 40 MPH 0230 AM 07/11 ...Guadalupe County... Santa Rosa Airport 54 MPH 0737 PM 07/10 Cuervo 3.5 NE (UPR) 46 MPH 0650 PM 07/10 Thompson Cattle 41 MPH 0545 PM 07/10 ...Lincoln County... Sierra Blanca Rgnl Arpt 46 MPH 0258 PM 07/10 Nogal 5 NW 44 MPH 0815 PM 07/10 Oscuro 4 NE (UPR) 42 MPH 0711 PM 07/10 ...McKinley County... Zuni Airport 41 MPH 0154 AM 07/11 ...Quay County... 3 S Ragland 60 MPH 0756 PM 07/10 Quay 6.2 S 56 MPH 0750 PM 07/10 Logan 12 NE (UPR) 54 MPH 0714 PM 07/10 Tucumcari Muni Airport 48 MPH 0839 PM 07/10 Endee 2 SW 42 MPH 1006 PM 07/10 ...Sandoval County... Placitas 43 MPH 0455 AM 07/11 ...Santa Fe County... I-25 @ La Bajada (NMDOT) 47 MPH 0250 AM 07/11 Us 285 At Tesuque 44 MPH 0230 PM 07/10 Santa Fe Muni Airport 41 MPH 0844 PM 07/10 I-25 @ La Bajada (NMDOT) 40 MPH 0845 PM 07/10 ...Taos County... Arroyo Seco 3 SW 50 MPH 1145 PM 07/10 Questa Municipal Airport 44 MPH 0355 PM 07/10 ...Torrance County... Estancia 2 WSW 46 MPH 0615 PM 07/10 Clines Corners 1 SSE 40 MPH 0606 PM 07/10 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Catron County... 14.3 S Luna (JE-FULLER) 0.16 in 0601 AM 07/11 Luna 1 ENE (Luna) 0.15 in 0907 AM 07/11 ...Chaves County... Mesa 11 NW 0.19 in 0700 AM 07/11 ...Colfax County... Raton Crews Airport 0.07 in 0953 AM 07/10 ...Curry County... Clovis 0.68 in 0939 AM 07/11 Clovis 2.3 NNE 0.63 in 0531 AM 07/11 Clovis 3.3 E 0.46 in 0600 AM 07/11 Texico 13.6 N 0.46 in 0700 AM 07/11 Clovis 0.42 in 0935 AM 07/11 Clovis 1.7 NE 0.40 in 0700 AM 07/11 Clovis 3 WSW 0.39 in 0935 AM 07/11 Clovis 3.3 SW 0.34 in 0700 AM 07/11 Clovis 4.4 S 0.24 in 0800 AM 07/11 ...De Baca County... Fort Sumner 9.0 SSE 0.38 in 0700 AM 07/11 Fort Sumner 0.5 SSW 0.07 in 0700 AM 07/11 Fort Sumner 0.07 in 0930 AM 07/11 ...Lincoln County... Alto 1 E 1.13 in 0935 AM 07/11 Bonito Lake 5.4 SW 0.54 in 0950 AM 07/10 Ruidoso 5.6 NNE 0.45 in 0700 AM 07/11 Ruidoso 1 NNW (Smokey Bear) 0.32 in 0900 AM 07/11 Alto 0.3 N 0.28 in 0700 AM 07/11 Alto 4.8 NE 0.24 in 0700 AM 07/11 Nogal 5 NW 0.21 in 0945 AM 07/10 Alto 1 E 0.20 in 1005 AM 07/10 Ruidoso 3.2 SW 0.20 in 0800 AM 07/11 Nogal 4.6 SSE 0.19 in 0700 AM 07/11 Capitan 5.5 NE 0.10 in 0700 AM 07/11 Bonito Lake 5.4 SW 0.10 in 0935 AM 07/11 Ruidoso 1 NNW (Smokey Bear) 0.09 in 1000 AM 07/10 Carrizozo 1 WNW 0.06 in 0945 AM 07/10 Roswell No. 2 Portable 0.05 in 0920 AM 07/11 ...Quay County... McAlister 7.7 N 0.85 in 0800 AM 07/11 McAlister 3.7 WNW 0.17 in 0700 AM 07/11 Tucumcari Muni Airport 0.12 in 0853 AM 07/11 House 0.1 S 0.10 in 0700 AM 07/11 Tucumcari Muni Airport 0.06 in 0953 AM 07/10 ...Roosevelt County... Portales 2.9 ESE 0.43 in 0700 AM 07/11 Tolar 12 SE 0.35 in 0855 AM 07/11 Portales 2.0 N 0.32 in 0700 AM 07/11 Portales 1 SW 0.22 in 0930 AM 07/11 Elida 8.9 NNW 0.20 in 0700 AM 07/11 Portales 1 SW 0.18 in 0945 AM 07/10 Tolar 13 SE (Melrose Range) 0.09 in 0914 AM 07/11 ...San Miguel County... Las Vegas Muni Airport 0.08 in 0953 AM 07/10 Bell Ranch 11 ENE 0.05 in 1000 AM 07/10 ...Santa Fe County... Santa Fe 7 SW 0.06 in 0945 AM 07/10 ...Union County... Sedan 5 N 0.42 in 0957 AM 07/10 Clayton Muni Airpark 0.28 in 0855 AM 07/11 Clayton 1.1 W 0.22 in 0900 AM 07/11 Sedan 5 N 0.22 in 0935 AM 07/11 Clayton 12.4 SSW 0.05 in 0700 AM 07/11 Amistad 8.5 WSW 0.05 in 0700 AM 07/11 ...Valencia County... Tome 2 NNW 0.05 in 0955 AM 07/10 Valencia 1 NNE 0.05 in 1000 AM 07/10 &&
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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