All-Time 4th Of July Record High Temperatures.
June 30, 2026.
Carlsbad, New Mexico.Scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms continued to break out across the eastern slopes of the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupé Mountains over the past week. A few of these have become severe over the eastern and southeastern plains with damaging winds.
Radar estimated that 2" to 3" of rain fell southwest of Hobbs, west of Monument. Multiple power lines were downed by damaging t-storm winds south of Monument.
The XL Automated Station 8.5 miles south of Hobbs measured 1.56"
The Tatum CoCoRaHS Station 0.9 miles east measured 1.50"
The Monument CoCoRaHS Station 1.2 miles west measured 1.31"
The XL Automated Station 9 miles southwest of Hobbs measured 1.20"
The XL Automated Station 17.25 west of Eunice measured 1.02"
The XL Automated Station 6.25 miles north of Knowles measured .94"
The Lovington NMCC Golf Course NMCC measured .80"
The Carlsbad Airport ASOS measured .65"
The XL Automated Station 9 miles southeast of Carlsbad measured .57"
The XL Automated Station 24.5 miles east of Roswell measured .49"
The Dark Canyon Ranch NMCC southwest of Carlsbad measured .47"
The XL Automated Station 2 miles east-southeast of Hagerman measured .36"
The Seven Rivers/Lakewood NMCC measured .36"
The Carlsbad CoCoRaHS Station 1.9 miles NW measured .34"
The rest of the week going into the 4th of July (Independence Day) weekend will see more of the same. Saturday, the 4th will likely be the driest and warmest day of the week in southeastern New Mexico with highs near 100 to around 102. See the National Weather Service Area Forecast Discussions below (AFD's) for the outlooks across the rest of the state.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1212 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 - Best storm chances shift west today and Thursday, generally west of the Pecos. Chances drop off after Thursday, but will be optimal in the vicinity of the Davis Mountains. - Near-normal temperatures are expected today and Thursday, before a warm-up through Independence Day. This will be followed by slightly cooler conditions Sunday through Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 WV imagery this morning shows an upper trough approaching the Four Corners, and a secondary trough developing/strengthening on the west coast, the net effect of which will be to keep West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under continued and progressive southwest flow aloft today, and to a lesser extent, Thursday. For those who like the cooler temperatures, today`s highs should be a couple of degrees cooler than yesterday`s, averaging 1-2 F below climatology. Latest progs suggest this will be the coolest day this forecast. Assisting the cooldown will be another round of convection this afternoon/evening, mainly over the higher terrain out west, replete with abundant cloud cover. KMAF RAOB came in w/a PWAT of 1.48", which is just under the 95th percentile, so continued concerns w/convection will be gusty winds/flash flooding. Abundant rainfall would be nice before fireworks on and before Independence Day. Tonight, a 40 kt LLJ is set to redevelop, and this will keep the boundary layer mixed, combining with plenty of cloud cover in southwest flow aloft to keep overnight minimums ~ 4-6 F above normal. Unfortunately, unseasonably warm overnight minimums will prevail for the duration of this forecast, offering little relief from daytime heat. Thursday, the upper ridge centered over the southeastern CONUS will begin nosing into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, resulting in increasing thicknesses over the area. Highs will be warmer than today, but only by a degree or so. The encroachment of the upper ridge will keep better chances of convection farther west, with best chances naturally over the Davis Mountains. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 Friday into next week, the upper ridge will continue developing west, passing through West Texas and Southeast New Mexico around Saturday. Highs will increase through then, peaking on Independence Day some 4-6 F above normal. Although this looks to be the warmest day this forecast, triple digits will be confined mainly to the river valleys. Sunday into next week, the ridge will center somewhere in the southwest invof Baja/Sonora, resulting in northerly flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and cooler temperatures than Independence Day. Unfortunately, this synoptic scenario portends a rather dry extended, with what meager chances there are favoring orographically- driven activity invof the Davis Mountains each day. If the ridge can meander far enough west next week, this may open a window or two as impulses rotate down the eastern periphery of the ridge (Sunday night?), but this is too far out to hang a hat on at this point, and will likely change. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026 A batch of showers and storms continues to move to the northeast with PEQ/INK being the next terminals to see impacts beginning the 18z hour. TEMPOs in place for expected timing of convection through this afternoon. Outside of convection, winds remain southerly to southeasterly between 15-20kts with gusts around 25kts. Winds and rain chances decreasing tonight. VFR remains at all terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 75 97 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 70 94 70 97 / 20 20 10 10 Dryden 75 97 75 99 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 72 93 72 96 / 10 20 0 10 Guadalupe Pass 66 86 67 88 / 20 40 10 10 Hobbs 68 91 68 94 / 20 30 10 0 Marfa 60 85 60 87 / 20 60 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 74 94 74 96 / 10 10 0 0 Odessa 73 93 74 96 / 10 10 0 0 Wink 72 93 72 97 / 20 10 0 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...99 LONG TERM....99 AVIATION...93
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1150 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1141 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 - Breezy to windy and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread and large fire growth Thursday. - A few strong to severe storms will focus over the eastern plains this afternoon, with large hail and damaging wind gusts being the primary threats. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1227 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 A persistent troughing pattern will continue across the Intermountain and Desert SW through Thursday, bringing breezy to windy and very dry conditions to western NM while pulling Gulf moisture northward into eastern NM. The Gulf moisture will fuel rounds of daytime heating initiated convection across eastern NM this afternoon/evening and again on Thursday. The latest NAM is advertising considerable instability near the TX border this afternoon, with muCAPE approaching 4,000J/kg and LIs up to -9C. Modeled 0-6km bulk shear isn`t screaming at only 25kts, but dCAPE values of over 2,000J/kg are more than sufficient for damaging wind gusts. The SPC has included much of the eastern plains in a marginal risk for severe storms on the day 1 convective outlook. Similar setup Thursday, but with even less shear and the severe threat more focused on damaging wind gusts across the east central and southeast plains. In addition, the latest CAMs show convective initiation near the Ruidoso area burn scars Thursday, bringing at least a low threat for burn scar flash flooding. Smoke from area wildfires will continue across more remote portions of NM and are not modeled to cause widespread air quality issues at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1227 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 The troughing pattern across the Intermountain West is forecast to diminish from Friday through the weekend as the jet stream retreats northward, allowing the Monsoon high to build over the region. At the same time, PWATs are modeled to increase as low level moisture is pulled under the upper high circulation, resulting in increasing chances for round of daytime heating initiated convection. The slow uptrend in PWATs is forecast to continue through next week, bringing improved chances for showers and storms and an increasing threat for burn scar flash flooding. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. However, isolated thunderstorms have already formed late this morning along the east slopes of the Sacramento and Capitan Mountains. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage across eastern NM and increase in intensity through the afternoon. A few strong to severe storms are expected with damaging wind gusts in excess of 50kt the main concern and large hail as a secondary concern. Brief excursions into MVFR vsby is possible in heavy rain or blowing dust. Storms will shift northeastward through the evening. Storms should move into west Texas by 03Z Thu. Elsewhere, dry and breezy conditions will be the rule with southwest wind gusts around 25 or 30kt. Winds will decouple overnight, except across far eastern NM where south to southwest breezes will persist. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1227 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 A troughing pattern persists across the Intermountain West, bringing continued breezy/gusty southwest winds and very dry conditions to western NM, while pulling Gulf moisture northward into eastern NM. Near-critical fire weather conditions are forecast across western and northern NM this afternoon, with a round of wetting storms across much of eastern NM. The drier airmass across western NM is forecast to progress further northeast on Thursday, bringing a downtrend in humidity to northeast NM while a deepening lee side trough provides windy conditions. The result will be several hours of critical fire weather conditions and a watch has been issued for Thursday. Winds are still forecast to trend down from Friday through the weekend as the jet stream retreats northward and the Monsoon high gets established over the region. In the meantime, increasingly dry conditions will prevail across western NM, with many hours of single digit humidities expanding east into north central areas by Friday. Chances for wetting storms and humidity will increase slowly late in the weekend into early next week as low level moisture is pulled into the Monsoon high circulation. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1105 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 922 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 - Storm chances will be limited to areas east of the US-54 corridor through the end of the week. Drier conditions out west in the Gila National Forest. - Mainly dry and hotter for the holiday weekend with lowland highs around 100 degrees. Trending wetter for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 922 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 Ever a surprise, the weather pattern we have seen for the past few days is stagnant, with a trough to our west and a ridge to our east, with the best chances for isolated storms in Hudspeth and Otero Counties for today. Tomorrow will see the southwesterly winds decrease across southern New Mexico as very dry air moves into the Gila National Forest. Minimum Relative Humidities in western New Mexico will fall between 5-10% tomorrow. The holiday weekend will see an upper-level high strengthening over the Four Corners, raising temperatures to at or just under the triple digit mark. Any lingering moisture will be restricted to just the Sacramento Mountains. After the holiday weekend, a new monsoon pattern begins to form around the high, bringing in moist, southeasterly flow back into our area. Scattered mountain storms and isolated lowland storms are the most likely scenario to occur next week, but as to how much moisture there will be to ignite these thunderstorms is still up for debate between the GFS and the ECMWF. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 922 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 VFR conditions expected for the period. Winds will be generally light from the southwest at 10-15 mph, with skies ranging from SKC to FEW120 to BKN250. A thunderstorm east of KELP cannot be ruled out, and any outflows that come from an isolated thunderstorm east of KELP this afternoon could generate outflows up to 40 mph. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 922 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 Near-critical fire weather conditions are expected for the Gila National Forest today and tomorrow due to dry air moving in from Arizona. Min RHs today will range between 8-13% today before falling to 5-10% tomorrow in the Gila National Forest. Moisture for the rest of the week will be confined to Hudspeth and Otero Counties, with precipitation chances increasing for the Sacramento Mountains tomorrow. The holiday weekend will see temperatures rising to around the 100-degree mark before a new monsoon pattern may decrease temperatures slightly early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 99 73 100 / 0 0 0 10 Sierra Blanca 65 91 65 92 / 10 30 20 30 Las Cruces 66 96 65 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 69 96 67 97 / 0 10 0 10 Cloudcroft 51 74 50 74 / 0 20 0 30 Truth or Consequences 65 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 59 90 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 64 99 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 63 96 63 98 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 73 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 10 Dell City 67 95 67 97 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Hancock 72 98 71 99 / 10 10 10 20 Loma Linda 67 90 66 91 / 0 10 10 30 Fabens 72 99 71 100 / 10 0 0 10 Santa Teresa 69 96 69 97 / 0 0 0 10 White Sands HQ 73 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 10 Jornada Range 66 97 66 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 65 100 65 101 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 71 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 67 95 66 96 / 0 0 0 10 Mayhill 56 85 55 85 / 0 40 10 40 Mescalero 54 85 54 86 / 0 20 0 30 Timberon 53 82 52 82 / 10 20 10 30 Winston 55 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 63 95 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 62 97 63 98 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 53 91 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 59 93 60 95 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 58 95 59 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 57 91 58 93 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 62 92 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 63 96 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 63 96 64 98 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 65 96 66 97 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 62 90 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...41-Zotter
New Mexico Rainfall Forecasts.
(Today Through 6 AM MDT, the 4th of July).
(January 1st - June 30th, 2026).
(As of 9 AM MDT This Wednesday Morning).
(NWS Climate COOP Stations).
Southeastern Plains.
Central-South Central Mountains.
Southern New Mexico.
Western New Mexico.
Four Corners.
Northern New Mexico.
Central New Mexico.
Northeastern & Eastern New Mexico.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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