Sct Storms/Hvy Rainfall/Localized Flash Flooding Today Into Sunday - Drying Out & Back Into The Oven Next Week.
T-Storm Southwest of Atoka.
T-storms erupted over the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains before noon yesterday and dumped on a few spots. Scattered t-storms also dotted the southeastern plains with heavy rainfall according to radar but missed most rain gauges. Radar estimated up to 3.00" fell northwest of Ruidoso and 2.50" southeast of Cloudcroft. See the maps and rainfall lists below for additional totals across the state.
A few of the heavier totals include:
FourCubsCabin PWS S of Alto 3.26"
South Fork Cedar Creek HADS NW of Ruidoso 2.41"
Lower Gavalin Canyon HADS Near Alto 2.37"
Alto Water Treatment Plant HADS 2.35"
Smokey Bear Raws 1.95"
Home PWS SE of Wimsatt 1.86"
Eagle Lake HADS 1.77"
Scenic Canyon PWS N of Wimsatt 1.74"
Ruidoso CoCoRaHS 3.2 SW 1.71"
Upper Canyon Lookout PWS W of Ruidoso 1.68"
Big Dipper Cabin PWS SW of Wimsatt 1.61"
Upper Raven Trail HADS NW of Ruidoso 1.42"
Dude Mesa HADS SSE of Ruidoso 1.33"
Gavalin Ridge South HADS Near Ruidoso Downs 1.26"
Queen Raws WSW of Carlsbad 1.11"
Nogal NMCC 1.11"
Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 4.0 E 1.14"
Fence Canyon HADS Near Hollywood 1.10"
Monjeau Peak HADS 1.00"
Bowl Raws N of Guadalupe Peak 1.00"
Roswell Portable Raws #1 ENE of Roswell .99"
XL AWS 30 W of Hobbs .92"
XL AWS 9 SW Whites City .84"
Cloudcroft NWS Climate COOP Station .20"
T-storms are forecast to be a little more numerous over the mountains, southeastern plains, southern and western New Mexico today and Sunday. A Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of Lincoln County through Sunday. In fact, t-storms have already erupted over the Sac's as of noon today, and a Flood Advisory has already been issued for areas northeast of Timberon and south of Sacramento and Weed until 2 PM.
Numerous t-storms are forecast over and near the mountains this afternoon and evening, capable of producing excessive rainfall. Rainfall rates will exceed 1" to 2" per hour in the strongest storms, with a few storm totals today once again in the 1" to 4" range.
The Ruidoso area is of particular concern with a high risk for additional flash flooding today in the area, including on and downstream of the burn scars. This area is primed for significant life-threatening flash flooding due to the recent very heavy rainfall.
Scattered t-storms will dot the landscape across the mountains Monday into Wednesday before a drying period takes over.
Across the lower elevations of western, southern, and southeastern New Mexico, scattered t-storms will break out this afternoon, continuing into tonight. Some of these will produce heavy rainfall with rainfall rates exceeding 1" per hour, with storm totals of 1" to 4" possible.
Sunday will be a repeat of today. Monday and Tuesday will see the highest threat for excessive rainfall shifting westward to far southwestern and western New Mexico. By mid-week, the rain machine turns off, and the oven fires back up.
Forecast highs across southeastern New Mexico next Wednesday into Sunday are currently in the 100 to 105 range.
Flood Watch National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1140 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 NMZ226-190000- /O.NEW.KABQ.FA.A.0008.260719T1800Z-260720T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ /O.CON.KABQ.FA.A.0007.260718T1800Z-260719T0000Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ South Central Mountains- 1140 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of central New Mexico, including the following area, South Central Mountains. * WHEN...Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Numerous thunderstorms will develop over the south-central mountains Sunday afternoon, then move slowly to the southwest and west. Rain rates over 1 inch per hour in a few of the stronger storms will lead to rapid runoff, especially where the ground is saturated from heavy rain and flash flooding on previous days. There is a moderate to high risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars. - This includes the Ruidoso area burn scars and the Seven Cabins burn scar. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && ...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. * WHERE...A portion of central New Mexico, including the following area, South Central Mountains. * WHEN...Until 6 PM MDT this evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm drains and ditches may become clogged with debris. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Numerous thunderstorms will develop over the south-central mountains this afternoon, then move slowly to the southwest. Rain rates over 1 inch per hour in a few of the stronger storms will lead to rapid runoff, especially where the ground is saturated from heavy rain and flash flooding that occurred on Friday. There is a high risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars. - This includes the Ruidoso area burn scars and the Seven Cabins burn scar. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued. && $$ Guyer
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1206 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1205 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 - Isolated to scattered showers/storms could produce locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning this afternoon. Localized flash flooding will be possible in the heaviest storms that develop. - Rain chances persist in the forecast through Tuesday evening, mainly favoring the western higher terrain. Localized flash flooding remains of concern in the event of occasionally heavy rainfall. - Warmer and drier conditions return areawide by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday afternoon) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 A few showers have developed over southeast New Mexico and are moving to south-southeast this morning. Until after sunrise, rain amounts will be generally light, though a stronger shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. During the day today, highest rain chances (40-60%) will be west of Midland/Odessa. Additional rainfall for very isolated spots may reach between a half inch to an inch with much less falling for most other locations. Given the last few days, there does still remain a threat for flash flooding in areas that have received significant rain. Cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures below normal in the upper 80s to low 90s. Convection gradually decreases into tonight and temperatures fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. Sunday looks to be a repeat of today with the main difference being the highest rain chances shifting over the Davis Mountains and Big Bend. -Stickney && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The mid level low that brought heavy rainfall to parts of Texas this week continues a westward track through early next week, departing from our region Tuesday into Wednesday. Rain chances remain in the forecast over parts of the area until then. Sunday evening, rain chances are progged to range from 10-40%, with the highest odds overlaying the western third of the region. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible near and west of the Pecos River Monday, with the best chances favoring the higher terrain. Rain chances taper down further over our western counties Tuesday afternoon before drier conditions return areawide Wednesday onward. Models suggest PWAT values between 1-2" through Tuesday evening, indicating a potential for occasionally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding, especially where soils are already saturated. As the mid level low departs, upper level ridging gradually takes its place, promoting a warming trend. With the exception of 80s in/near the higher terrain Monday afternoon, highs at most locations are forecast to reach the low 90s, then warm a few degrees further Tuesday afternoon. Ensembles indicate the upper ridge eventually becoming centered over the southern Plains by next weekend. Subsequently, triple digit heat returns along the Rio Grande and Pecos River valleys Wednesday afternoon, then envelopes more portions of the region each afternoon onward. Overnight lows in the 60s/70s Sunday night slowly give way to lows generally in the 70s by the end of the week. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 548 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 540 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 - Mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain westward each day with a risk of lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. - There will be a risk of locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding along and west of the central mountain chain today and Sunday, then mainly along and west of the continental divide and over the south central mountains Monday and Tuesday. - There is a high risk of flash flooding below the Ruidoso area burn scars today, and a moderate risk Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 1256 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Monsoon moisture with seasonably moist PWATs around 1-1.3" will remain in place over NM through the weekend as mid level high pressure centers persist over the CO/WY border and also on the TX/LA coast. In addition, a weak upper level low will remain stalled over southeast NM and west TX today, then begin to migrate slowly westward toward El Paso on Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will generally drift southwestward today, then more toward the west on Sunday. The upper high over CO will begin steering drier air over northeast NM on Sunday cutting off convection east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Some cells during the afternoon and evening today and Sunday will be capable of producing locally heavy rain at rates over 1"/hr with a risk of isolated flash flooding. The NBM`s 90th percentile QPF indicates the main flash flood threat each day will be over southern and western parts of the forecast area, where a few locations may receive over 2 inches of rain accumulation. The REFS LPMM suggests there will also be an isolated flash flood threat farther north along the central mountain chain and into the central valley today and Sunday. Will continue the ongoing Flash Flood Watch for the extremely vulnerable burn scars of the south central mountains this afternoon, where high res models depict numerous storms redeveloping again today. With all of the moisture and convection, high temps will vary from near to around 9 degrees below 1991-2020 averages today and Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 1256 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 The aforementioned upper highs will consolidate into a stronger (595 dam) high pressure system, initially over CO on Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday the broad upper high is forecast to drift gradually southeastward recentering over NE NM and the OK and TX panhandles, where it should build to around 597 dam. The upper high will then recenter more over eastern NM Thursday and Friday. This will result in a warming trend as the week progresses. On Monday and Tuesday, scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue along and west of the central mountain chain, but PWATs are forecast to fall about 20 percent. This should relegate the risk of locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding to places along and west of the continental divide, and also to the south central mountains. There will then be a notable downtick in storm coverage and rainfall intensity Wednesday and Thursday. On Friday, an uptick in storm coverage and rainfall intensity is expected as disturbances embedded in the periphery of the ridge track northward along the NM/AZ border and a moist backdoor front moves into the northeast quarter of the state. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1121 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1120 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 - Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms area wide this weekend and on Monday, with a threat of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. - Storm chances decrease next week, becoming more isolated and limited mostly to western New Mexico by Tuesday. Drier and warmer conditions expected along the Rio Grande Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 An UL low continues to influence our weather with abundant moisture in place. 16z SPC Mesoanalysis shows 1.2-1.5" of PW over the CWA. Thus, we will see more scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and into this evening with heavy rainfall and flash flooding the main concern. It`s been a little difficult pinpointing who has the highest risk for flash flooding, but there will almost certainly be some instances of excessive rainfall. With the UL low only making slow westward progress today and tomorrow, rain and storm chances will continue through Monday. By Tuesday, the low will have greatly weakened with moisture beginning to exit the area with areas west of the Rio Grande favored for storms. UL high will settle over OK by Wednesday, pushing most of the moisture out of the area. Storm coverage will drop dramatically with only the mountains having a slight chance for precip through next weekend. Highs will also warm up with most lowland locations back above 100 by next weekend. &&
Today.
Sunday.
Monday.
(As of 10 AM MDT Saturday Morning).
NWS Reported 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.
(As of 10 AM MDT Saturday Morning).
Weather Underground 24-Hour Rainfall Totals.
(As of 10 PM MDT Friday Night).
(As of 8 AM MDT Saturday).
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1051 AM MDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Bernalillo County... Albuquerque 4.7 W 0.49 in 0900 AM 07/18 Albuquerque 0.46 in 1037 AM 07/18 Albuquerque 6 W 0.44 in 1038 AM 07/18 Albuquerque 6.8 W 0.43 in 0800 AM 07/18 Albuquerque 6.9 WSW 0.38 in 0700 AM 07/18 Albuquerque 7.3 W 0.29 in 0800 AM 07/18 Albuquerque 3.4 W 0.19 in 0715 AM 07/18 Albuquerque 4.0 W 0.16 in 0700 AM 07/18 Sandia Park 0.16 in 1030 AM 07/18 Sandia Park 0.5 S 0.15 in 0900 AM 07/18 Albuquerque 9.3 NW 0.12 in 0800 AM 07/18 Sandia Park 3.6 ESE 0.11 in 0700 AM 07/18 ...Catron County... Datil 11 NNE (Datil) 0.79 in 0911 AM 07/18 Cruzville 10.3 SE (JE-FULLER 0.47 in 0510 AM 07/18 Pie Town 0.1 WNW 0.40 in 0700 AM 07/18 Beaverhead 0.37 in 0908 AM 07/18 Quemado 15.2 SW 0.36 in 0600 AM 07/18 Quemado 8.0 NE 0.25 in 0800 AM 07/18 ...Chaves County... Roswell No. 1 Portable 0.99 in 1040 AM 07/18 Roswell 19.3 N 0.16 in 0722 AM 07/18 ...Cibola County... New Laguna 1 N (Laguna) 0.52 in 1033 AM 07/18 Pine Hill 7 S 0.34 in 0750 AM 07/18 El Morro 16 SSE (Malpais Lav 0.23 in 1025 AM 07/18 Grants 1.6 NE 0.16 in 0700 AM 07/18 ...Colfax County... Ute Park 3 N (Cimarron) 0.66 in 0909 AM 07/18 Angel Fire Airport 0.23 in 1055 PM 07/17 ...Curry County... Cannon Air Force Base 0.56 in 0955 AM 07/18 Clovis 0.10 in 1037 AM 07/18 ...De Baca County... Fort Sumner 0.5 SSW 0.51 in 0700 AM 07/18 Fort Sumner 0.50 in 1030 AM 07/18 Fort Sumner 9.0 SSE 0.45 in 0700 AM 07/18 ...Harding County... Mills 4 WSW (Mills Canyon) 0.15 in 1005 AM 07/18 ...Lincoln County... 3 SW Alto 2.41 in 0700 AM 07/18 1 WSW Alto 2.37 in 0700 AM 07/18 1 S Alto 2.35 in 0700 AM 07/18 Ruidoso 1 NNW (Smokey Bear) 1.95 in 1000 AM 07/18 Ruidoso 3.2 SW 1.71 in 0800 AM 07/18 2 ESE Alto 1.59 in 0700 AM 07/18 Alto 1 E 1.32 in 0745 AM 07/18 Alto 0.3 N 1.04 in 0700 AM 07/18 Alto 4.8 NE 0.87 in 0700 AM 07/18 Alto 7.4 W 0.66 in 0700 AM 07/18 Alto 2.8 E 0.60 in 0700 AM 07/18 Nogal 4.6 SSE 0.41 in 0700 AM 07/18 Carrizozo 0.40 in 0745 AM 07/18 Capitan 1.3 WSW 0.32 in 0900 AM 07/18 Nogal 2.6 S 0.29 in 0700 AM 07/18 Capitan 5.9 NE 0.24 in 0745 AM 07/18 Lincoln 1.4 ESE 0.20 in 0700 AM 07/18 Capitan 5.5 NE 0.18 in 0700 AM 07/18 Sierra Blanca Rgnl Arpt 0.17 in 0955 AM 07/18 ...Los Alamos County... Los Alamos 7.1 SE 0.19 in 0800 AM 07/18 Los Alamos 6.9 SSE 0.16 in 0700 AM 07/18 White Rock 0.14 in 1038 AM 07/18 Los Alamos 6.1 SE 0.13 in 0800 AM 07/18 White Rock 0.13 in 0800 AM 07/18 ...McKinley County... Zuni Pueblo 7 NW (Zuni Butte 1.76 in 0942 AM 07/18 Zuni 3.6 ENE 0.44 in 0700 AM 07/18 Zuni Pueblo 0.5 S 0.34 in 0830 AM 07/18 ZUNI 0.26 in 1035 AM 07/18 Rio Puerco Qd No. 1 0.18 in 1003 AM 07/18 ...Rio Arriba County... Gallina 2.0 W 0.60 in 0700 AM 07/18 Chama 6.6 SSE 0.26 in 0500 AM 07/18 Chama 1.0 N 0.21 in 0700 AM 07/18 Truchas 3 ENE (Truchas) 0.12 in 0911 AM 07/18 ...Roosevelt County... Tolar 12 SE 0.10 in 0555 AM 07/18 ...San Juan County... Bloomfield 0.8 NE 0.15 in 0700 AM 07/18 ...San Miguel County... Sapello 5.1 WNW 0.42 in 0700 AM 07/18 Lower Colonias 5 E (Pecos) 0.20 in 1014 AM 07/18 Mineral Hill 1 WNW 0.11 in 0700 AM 07/18 Las Vegas Muni Airport 0.10 in 0953 AM 07/18 ...Sandoval County... Frijoles (Tower) 0.41 in 0908 AM 07/18 Rio Rancho 5.4 NNE 0.39 in 0700 AM 07/18 Valles Caldera HQ (DRI) 0.24 in 1000 AM 07/18 Jemez Pueblo 5.7 NNW 0.22 in 0630 AM 07/18 Rio Rancho 5.6 NE 0.17 in 0700 AM 07/18 ...Santa Fe County... Edgewood 0.96 in 1035 AM 07/18 Edgewood 5.5 N 0.54 in 0700 AM 07/18 Edgewood 4 ENE 0.42 in 1040 AM 07/18 Santa Fe 4 ENE 0.33 in 1030 AM 07/18 Glorieta 2.4 E 0.29 in 0700 AM 07/18 Stanley 4.9 SSE 0.24 in 0500 AM 07/18 Santa Fe 5 E (Santa Fe Water 0.24 in 0953 AM 07/18 Los Cerrillos 3 NNE 0.12 in 0700 AM 07/18 Santa Fe 6.4 SE 0.11 in 0700 AM 07/18 Santa Fe 2.9 ENE 0.11 in 0700 AM 07/18 Santa Fe 3 ENE 0.11 in 1036 AM 07/18 Edgewood 0.10 in 1038 AM 07/18 ...Socorro County... Winston 22.9 N 0.35 in 0700 AM 07/18 SEVILLETA NWR LTER SOCORRO 2 0.10 in 1015 AM 07/18 ...Taos County... San Cristobal 0.1 NE 0.40 in 0700 AM 07/18 Ranchos De Taos 4.0 W 0.15 in 0700 AM 07/18 Lama 4 NW (Wild Rivers) 0.12 in 0849 AM 07/18 El Prado 1.7 WNW 0.11 in 0700 AM 07/18 Taos 4.3 NNW 0.10 in 1159 PM 07/17 ...Torrance County... Estancia 9.4 NW 1.14 in 0700 AM 07/18 Clines Corners 1 SSE 0.79 in 0953 AM 07/18 Estancia 10.6 WNW 0.53 in 0700 AM 07/18 Cibola Portable No. 2 0.40 in 1039 AM 07/18 Estancia 6.4 WSW 0.11 in 0700 AM 07/18 &&
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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