Brief Lull In The Rains But Fear Not They Are Back & A Look At West-Central Texas Catastrophic Rains/Flooding!
16-Springs Canyon Road.
Hail Fog & Flooding Debris.
Southeastern Plains.
We've dried out in southeastern New Mexico and over the Sacramento Mountains the past couple of days as our thunderstorm activity got shut down by subsidence and dry air aloft. This comes to an end today as an upper-level low/easterly wave located over West Texas this morning moves slowly west and dissipates by Saturday.
Subtropical monsoonal moisture flowing north from Mexico and northwest from the Gulf will help kick off isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms today into this evening across southeastern New Mexico.
Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will dot the landscape Thursday into Sunday. Locally heavy rains will be possible, which may lead to localized flash flooding. Our chances of getting wet will range from 10% to 20% today, increasing to 30% to 60% Thursday into Saturday. Rainfall totals today into Sunday will generally be in the .25" to 1.00" range, with isolated totals of 2.00" possible.
Our high temps today into Friday will range from the upper 80s to near 90. The weekend into the first of next week will heat up a little more with highs in the low to mid 90s as our chances for rain decrease.
The Flood Watch across the Permian Basin has been expanded northward to include the Midland/Odessa, Big Spring, and Snyder areas.
Sacramento/Capitan/Guadalupe Mountains.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast over the mountains today. Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday into the weekend. Chances for rain are in the 30% to 40% today into Friday, and increase to 70% to 90% Friday into Sunday. Rainfall totals today into Sunday will generally be in the .50" to 1.00" range, with isolated higher totals possible.
Localized flash flooding will be possible anywhere in the mountains, with the greatest threat over and near the burn scars.
High temps will range from the upper 70's to near 80 in the Capitan, Ruidoso, 16-Springs, Mayhill, Pinon, and Mountain Park/High Rolls area today into Sunday. Highs in the low to mid 70's are forecast for the Mescalero, Sacramento/Weed, and Timberon areas. Highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60's in the Sunspot, Cloudcroft, Silver Lake areas with the upper 50's to near 60 at Ski Apache.
Forecast models are inching the Excessive Rainfall Outlook a little further to the north and west today into the weekend. By Friday, parts of southeastern New Mexico are forecast to be in the Slight Risk Outlook area, with southern and southwestern New Mexico, and the Capitan and Sacramento Mountains included as well. I would not be surprised at all to see a more widespread threat for excessive rainfall over the area if the upper-level low/eastelry wave over West Texas nudges further to the northwest into southeastern and southern New Mexico.
Should this occur, then the threat for more widespread heavy rainfall and flash flooding would increase. The upper-level low/easterly wave located over West Texas this morning is a slow mover, and it may even stall or wander around the area the next few days, and this could complicate our forecasts.
Since we are dealing with a subtropical air mass and upper-level storm, the forecast models are having a hard time with it, as they often do with these types of slow-moving systems. So take the model rainfall forecasts with a grain of salt. Some areas are likely to get more rain than currently forecast by this weekend, while others fall into a dark hole and get less than forecast.
The Rest Of New Mexico.
Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast across southern, southwestern, and western New Mexico Thursday into the weekend. Locally heavy thunderstorm rains will produce a flash flood threat just about anywhere in these areas.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1207 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1151 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 - Daily heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat particularly for areas south of I-10 through at least Thursday. - Multiple instances of flash flooding expected, especially in the areas of heaviest rainfall and low water crossings. - Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday afternoon) Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 After some morning convection, yesterday was drier than the previous couple of days and it showed as highs rebounded a bit higher than forecast. That will not be the case today as an upper low drifts west into the CWA increasing convection today. Flooding will continue to be the primary concern. Daytime heating will initiate convection later this morning, but the presence of of the upper level low will continue convection overnight though perhaps diminishing in coverage. The best rain chances will be from the Permian Basin to the Big Bend and lower Trans Pecos. Showers and storms increase again Thursday afternoon in the same areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Upper low pressure remains over the area Friday continuing rain chances for most of the area. The Flood Watch currently in effect through Thursday may need to be extended into Friday, possibly in areal extent as well expanding north into the Permian Basin. The low moves west into northern Mexico on Saturday causing rain chances to decrease for the first time all week east of the Pecos River. The proximity to the low west of the Pecos and orographic lift west of the Pecos River continues decent rain chances through the weekend while low rain chances remain over the Permian Basin. Temperatures remain well below normal into Friday before a warming trend begins over the weekend with near normal temperatures expected by the middle of next week. Hennig &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1150 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1136 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 - Widespread storms each day this week will focus over western New Mexico, with lesser coverage across the east. Small hail, gusty outflow winds, and localized flash flooding may occur with stronger storms during the afternoon and evening hours. - There is a low risk of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars through Thursday, then at least a moderate risk from Friday through the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 211 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Water vapor imagery this morning shows a quite active synoptic pattern over the western CONUS. The main feature is the commanding H5 ridge over the central plains as well as the secondary high that continues to develop over the northern Rockies in Wyoming and Montana. There has been a steady stream of moisture clockwise around these circulations, with the deepest moisture being advected meridionally from northern Mexico into Utah and Idaho. Meanwhile, an easterly wave over west Texas has begun to produce robust convection over the Hill Country of Texas tonight. This convection will gradually make its way northwestward, but the subsidence out ahead of it will help to limit convective activity across the eastern third of New Mexico today. Storms today will once again focus along and west of the central mountain chain, although coverage will be higher compared to Tuesday since the shortwave skirting northern NM will be stronger and moisture content will be slightly higher as well. Localized pockets of 1"+ are likely today, with the best chance along the west slopes of mtn ranges where storms will tend to regenerate. These storms will cluster together in west-central NM during the evening hours as rainfall intensity trends lower. While an instance or two of flash flooding is to be expected, widespread impacts are unlikely and much of this rainfall will be welcomed across central and western NM. The center of the easterly wave will work its way into far west Texas on Thursday. Dry air will rotate into the circulation from the northeast, which will translate to a downtick in coverage in central NM. Western NM will be very similar to the previous days with widespread storms developing over the high terrain, moving into the lower elevations from the mid-afternoon onwards. An instance of flash flooding or two remains on the table given the increasingly efficient rainfall rates, but the soil will take a while to saturate and become vulnerable to flash flooding. Soil moisture percentile rankings show that much of western and northern NM is below the 10th percentile for mid-July, with the northwest corner of the state below the 1st percentile. The extensive cloud coverage and falling 500 mb heights will combine to make Thursday the coolest day of the week in many areas, with highs struggling to reach 90F, even in lower elevation locations like Albuquerque, Farmington, and Roswell. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 211 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 The easterly wave will stall over far west Texas on Friday, eventually filling and dissipating. At the same time, the secondary ridge currently over Wyoming will shift southward over the Four Corners and strengthen. Moisture will continue coming up from the south, with the deepest sub-tropical moisture over western NM. Despite the southerly shift in the high, storm motions should trend even faster late week into the weekend over the southern half of New Mexico, with slower and erratic motions near the Colorado border. With repeated rounds of storms, soils will slowly saturate, including over recent burn scars where the flash flood risk will be greatest. Ensemble guidance shows that the center of the H5 high will migrate southeast towards the TX Panhandle early next week, then potentially setting up right over central NM mid to late week. This will continue to favor at least scattered storms each day next week, with the highest rain chances in western NM where moisture will be greatest (PWATs 120-150% of normal). &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1204 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1108 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 - Continued isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Thursday, with temperatures several degrees below normal. - Increased storm activity Friday through Sunday, with a threat of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. - Storm chances lower early next week will mostly dry conditions expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1108 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Shower and thunderstorm activity will start to increase across the local area as a slow moving upper level low pressure system drifts further west toward the region. This is the system that has been producing heavy rainfall in southern and southwestern Texas the past couple of days. This low will continue to under cut the broad high pressure ridge that extends all of the way up into the northern Plains, and move into the west Texas panhandle and southeastern New Mexico by Friday. This will facilitate enhanced shower and thunderstorm development in our local area Friday through Sunday. For today, scattered mountain and isolated lowland showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening. Coverage will be somewhat limited with warmer mid level temperatures inhibiting more widespread storm activity. Movement of any storms that develop will be toward the south-southwest as part of a general northerly flow aloft. Sufficient moisture is present for thunderstorms to produce brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall, especially over the mountains. As the low pressure system drifts closer to the area, conditions will become more favorable for widespread shower and thunderstorm across the area Thursday, Friday, and especially Friday night into Saturday morning. Storm development will be fueled by increased atmospheric moisture that will help sustain thunderstorm activity into the night time hours. This could lead to periods of heavy rainfall that could lead to localized flooding. The Weather Prediction Center will have the local area under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Thursday with a slight chance of excessive rainfall and localized flooding on Friday and Friday night. The risk of excessive rainfall will persist through the weekend before chances for rain diminish on Monday. By Monday, the weak upper low and the moisture plume will shift west over Arizona, allowing the local area to dry out. The dome of high pressure will be roughly centered over the middle of the country keeping the area in an easterly flow aloft that will be mostly transporting drier stable air into the region much of next week. This will set up a mostly dry pattern across the local area with chances for isolated mostly mountain based storms next week. Drier conditions will allow temperatures will rise to near or a few degrees above normal next week. &&
(At 6 AM MDT This Wednesday Morning).
Texas 72-Hour Excessive Rainfall Totals/Outlooks.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 235 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some producing heavy rainfall, through Thursday evening. A moderate to high risk of excessive rainfall today through Thursday morning south of the I-20 corridor. - A Flood Watch in effect for the Northern Edwards Plateau, Northwest Hill Country, and southern portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland continues through Thursday evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Weak systems in weak flow continue to create a lower confidence but higher potential impact flood situation across West Central Texas. Looks like a broad weak upper low has developed across the area, centered somewhere near San Angelo itself. On its southeast quadrant, several MCV circulations are rotating northeast across the Hill Country (including the main one centered near the Mason/Gillespie/Llano lines). So far, heaviest rain fall today has occurred in Mason County where 2+ inches has fallen in a couple hours. Even the lighter showers though are very efficient rain producers with the activity around San Angelo this morning producing some totals near 3/4 of an inch. Precipitable water values are high (nearly 2 inches) and the convection fairly slow moving. For tonight into Thursday, the weak upper low is forecasted to drift farther west. This puts more of West Central Texas in the critical southeast/east quadrant where additional bursts of heavy rainfall is most possible. Models show this general idea, but vary greatly in the critical details once again. Somewhere from San Angelo to San Saba south into the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country may well see high end 5-10+ inches of rain by Thursday night or Friday morning, and given the saturated soils and the fact that creeks and streams are already running nearly full, the potential for a high end flash flooding event is a real possibility that needs to be considered, even if the chances of it occurring are relatively low. The confidence of knowing where that might happen however remains lower than we would like it, but of note, this risk area has expanded farther west and north into the Concho Valley to include San Angelo. Discussion with WPC and EWX, and there was a consideration of bumping more of the area into a HIGH risk on the ERO for tomorrow, but given the uncertainties in where, agreement was to keep it as a MODERATE for now. If the signal changes and a specific area starts to become more locked in, an upgrade may well be needed. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Upper low continues drifting west means another round of potentially heavy rainfall Thursday night into Friday morning, although with even more uncertainty than the first 24 hours. If it does develop, the area will shift west with the upper low and be focused more on the Concho Valley and Edwards Plateau west into the Permian Basin. Will continue with high POPs into Friday morning but much lower for the weekend as the system continues drifting west. After some cloudier and cooler days lately, the heat will begin to return and afternoon highs will again be climbing into the 90s. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 138 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 - The forecast remains relatively unchanged with intense rain rates and compounding effects from multiple rounds of storms resulting in a dangerous flash flooding threat through Thursday. - Considerable to locally catastrophic impacts from flash flooding are likely for the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, western Hill Country, and U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio. - Pockets of an additional 10 to 15 inches of rain are possible within the highest risk areas, with broader totals of 2 to 6 inches. - Potential for significant to catastrophic river flooding in the Nueces, Frio, and Medina river basins and significant flooding in the Pecos, Rio Grande, and San Antonio river basins. - Heed instructions from local officials and be prepared to seek higher ground if necessary. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Significant rainfall capable of life-threatening flooding is again expected tonight through tomorrow morning. This includes likely impacts from considerable to locally catastrophic flash flooding along the U.S. 90 corridor west of San Antonio including the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and western Hill Country, plus the renewed potential for significant mainstem river flooding into Moderate and Major flood stages in the Pecos, Rio Grande, Nueces, Frio, Medina, and San Antonio River basins. This is in addition to significant to catastrophic river flooding already expected in the Nueces, Frio, and Medina basins as floodwaters from earlier rains continue to move downstream. The potential for renewed impacts from flash and river flooding include areas already hard hit by recent flooding. While these locations are at greatest risk and highest confidence for seeing significant impacts, a Flood Watch remains in effect for a broader area across the I-35 corridor, the Hill Country, Rio Grande Plains, and southern Edwards Plateau through Thursday. Dangerous flash flooding from torrential downpours will be possible for all of these areas. In the highest risk areas, the potential continues for pockets of an additional 10 to 15 inches of rain through noon Thursday. Regional values in the 2 to 6 inch range are possible for those areas, with 1 to 4 inch totals over the remaining portions of the Flood Watch area. Prolific rain rates will again be possible tonight and Thursday morning, with rates potentially reaching 2 to 4 inches per hour. It will not make much rain to produce major concerns. With how saturated soils are, even rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be sufficient to trigger flash flooding, rapidly accumulating into creeks and arroyos. Additionally, steep rises along the Frio, Medina, and Nueces rivers and their tributaries to Moderate or Major flood stage are already occurring and flowing downstream with the potential for catastrophic impacts. Heavy runoff and rains in these or other river basins may produce further rises which could impact downstream areas far the heaviest rains. Like yesterday, rain has fanned out this afternoon over a wider area across South Central Texas, though pockets of torrential rain are still occurring mainly along the eastern edge of the Hill Country and I-35 corridor. The flood event is not over! While rain coverage overall is expected to decrease some this afternoon for most areas, showers and storms should begin redeveloping again this evening with the heaviest rain likely occurring during after midnight into the early morning hours. This redevelopment is most likely to occur between San Antonio and the Rio Grande, over the southern Edwards Plateau, western Hill Country, and U.S. 90 corridor. The well-defined mesoscale convective vortex responsible for last night and this morning`s rains is moving north through the Hill Country. Even if this disturbance individually leaves South-Central Texas, a broader area of vorticity persists over the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande, and will be the catalyst for heavy rainfall tonight. Convergence and a robust low-level jet will again support torrential downpours. The jet tonight looks even stronger than previous nights, with the HREF mean showing 30-35 kt values at 850mb. Most models indicate the vorticity will track slowly north and west, guided by flow from a retrograding upper-level low. While its location will dictate to some degree where bullseyes of extreme rain totals will set up, the massive amounts of rainfall received the last two days combined with the large amount of tropical moisture continuing to push into the region indicates that much of the southern Edwards Plateau and Highway 90 corridor west of San Antonio remain a High Risk (Level 4 of 4, the maximum level) for excessive rains capable of flash flooding. Preceding rains have saturated much of the area`s soils to an exceptional degree. Very little rain will be required for flash flooding to recommence tonight. The most imminent period of heightened concern for flash flooding is tonight through Thursday morning. Heavy rains may linger into Thursday afternoon across the area as tropical moisture flows across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, though rain coverage should ease up some. The main forcing for these storms should continue to move further away from the area towards the north. Nonetheless, tropical moisture will continue to move south to north behind the outgoing disturbance, setting up for another round of potentially heavy rainfall Thursday night into Friday morning mainly over the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and western Hill Country. Once again, these rains could impact areas already hard hit. Slightly faster mid-level winds should allow storms to move a little faster, but multiple rounds of heavy rains may occur again. There is a Moderate Risk (Level 3 of 4) of excessive rain capable of causing flash flooding Thursday through Friday morning, with the rains most likely occurring during the overnight/morning hours. The risk area for heavier rains and flash flooding Thursday night through Friday morning is expected to shift slightly north and west compared to tonight`s potential, but moisture will remain plentiful across South Central Texas. Rivers, creeks, and arroyos can rise suddenly and rapidly! Locally dry conditions near creeks and rivers should not be treated as a guarantee of your safety! Normally dry areas can flood in these conditions. Heed warnings, instructions from local and county officials, and avoid unnecessary travel. Flash flooding can be impossible to spot at night. Avoid flooded roadways. Conditions can change drastically and suddenly. Have multiple reliable ways to receive warnings and information from local/state officials both in the daytime and at night. If you are in a low-lying location or near a stream, have a plan and have a route to reach higher ground if needed. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Rain chances are expected to decrease Friday afternoon and then over the weekend as high pressure over the Gulf shifts closer to our area, with an accompanying reduction in moisture. Some isolated showers may still move over South-Central Texas this weekend as southerly flow remains intact aloft, but the overall atmosphere should be drier. Keep in mind that areas hardest hit by the week`s rains will be susceptible to relatively modest amounts of new rainfall, so even a stray shower could cause nuisance flooding if it moves over the southern Edwards Plateau, western Hill Country, or US 90 corridor. Overall drier conditions and clearer skies will restore temperatures back to typical summer highs in the 90s for the first time since the start of the week. The weather pattern next week favors drier conditions continuing. A ridge should rebuild over the Central Plains, close enough to our area this time around to provide enough sinking motion to suppress rain chances and provide more typical summertime and sunny weather for South-Central Texas. &&
(As Of 12:40 PM MDT Wednesday, July 15, 2026).
Excessive torrential rainfall has fallen over a huge chunk of real estate west of San Antonio over the past couple of days. A few of the higher totals I could find as of 1 PM MDT include:
Uvalde 042 Rain Gauge 17.16"
Camp Wood CoCoRaHS 9.6 ESE 16.01"
Dry Frio River At FM 2690 Near Knippa 7 NW 15.39"
Leona River At CR 429A Near Uvalde 10 NNE HADS 15.06"
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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