Another Round Of T-Storms - Heating Up Next Week - Watching Tropical Depression #2/Bertha?
A historic rain event for the Guadalupe Mountains from September 9th-13th, 2013. 15.76 inches of rain was recorded during this period at the Pine Springs, GUMO mesonet station near the National Park Visitor Center. 13.62 inches of rain fell on September 11th-12th (most of this in a 12-hour period during the early morning hours of the 12th). Flash flooding occurred in the Dark Canyon, Rocky Arroyo, and Black River basins on the 12th with many localized areas of high water along the arroyos on the north side of the Guadalupe Mountains. An impressive fourteen-foot rise of water on the Dark Canyon when it reached Carlsbad, New Mexico, creating some damage in the city to low-lying areas...along with some welcome water in the Pecos River Basin down to Red Bluff Reservoir.
BULLETIN Tropical Depression Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 100 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 85.0W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Ochlockonee River to the FL/AL border A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 36 to 48 hours. Additional watches will likely be required over the next day or two. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 85.0 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 1 mph (2 km/h) and a continued slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Monday. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass to Chassahowitzka, FL...1 to 3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022026 1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026 The area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring in the northeastern Gulf of America during the past few days has now developed a well-defined low-level circulation. The convective activity remains patchy, likely due to intrusions of dry air from its northeast, but there is enough persistent convection near the center and in bands on its northeast and southwest sides to justify this system as a tropical depression. The circulation is sprawling and still weak, however. Based on surface observations and earlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 25 kt and the minimum pressure is 1011 mb. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system later today, and their data will be helpful to better assess the system’s initial structure. The initial motion of the system is difficult to know since it has only recently become well defined, but our best guess is north-northwestward at 3 kt. The system is currently caught in weak steering currents between a ridge over the western Atlantic, another ridge over the south-central and southwestern U.S., and a trough over the northeast U.S. This pattern should take the cyclone slowly northwestward through Monday night, and the system will likely be close enough to the Florida Panhandle to bring the potential for tropical storm conditions there. After that time, a turn to the west or west-northwest seems to be the most likely scenario as the ridge over the southern U.S. builds eastward, taking the system near or across the Gulf coast during the middle and latter portions of the week. The NHC track forecast lies a touch to the south of middle of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the usually best-performing aids HCCA, TVCN, and GDMI. The sprawling nature of the system, nearby dry air, and some northeasterly vertical wind shear suggest that any strengthening should be slow to occur, especially in the short term. Nonetheless, the system is expected to become a tropical storm as it approaches the Florida Panhandle during the next day or two. There seems to be a better opportunity for the system to strengthen once it turns westward, however, the amount of strengthening will be dependent on how far offshore the circulation is. The NHC track forecast lies toward the upper end of the model guidance, however, there is a low amount of confidence given the uncertainty of how much land interaction will take place. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to gradually strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the Florida Panhandle, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. 2. Interests in Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas should monitor the progress of this system, as watches could be required for portions of that area over the next day or two. 3. Areas of flash flooding will be possible through Thursday along the eastern and central Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 28.0N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022026 1500 UTC SUN JUL 19 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.3W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 85.3W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 28.2N 85.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.5N 85.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 28.8N 86.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 29.1N 86.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.4N 87.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 29.7N 88.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 29.5N 91.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 29.7N 95.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 20SW 30NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 85.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 19/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 933 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...24-HR PRECIPITATION REPORTS ENDING 9AM, JULY 19, 2026... Location Amount Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Bernalillo County... Sandia Heights 0.5 S 1.29 in 0730 AM 07/19 Sandia Park 3.7 ESE 1.18 in 0700 AM 07/19 Sandia Park 1.17 in 0915 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 7.7 ENE 0.91 in 0700 AM 07/19 Sandia 3.4 E 0.64 in 0700 AM 07/19 Edgewood 6.1 NW 0.62 in 0541 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 7.4 ENE 0.60 in 0700 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 8.7 SE 0.58 in 0700 AM 07/19 Sandia Park 0.5 S 0.56 in 0900 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 7.8 ENE 0.51 in 0700 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 8.0 ESE 0.40 in 0700 AM 07/19 Cedar Crest 0.38 in 0915 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 8.1 ESE 0.37 in 0700 AM 07/19 San Antonito 1 SSW 0.35 in 0920 AM 07/19 San Antonito 1 S 0.31 in 0910 AM 07/19 Sandia Park 3.4 NE 0.21 in 0800 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 5.3 E 0.19 in 0535 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 5.4 E 0.18 in 0600 AM 07/19 Ponderosa 2 W 0.16 in 0700 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 4.0 W 0.16 in 0700 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 8.1 ESE 0.15 in 0700 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 5.0 E 0.15 in 0600 AM 07/19 10k 0.14 in 0838 AM 07/19 Ponderosa 2 WNW 0.14 in 0700 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 8 NNW 0.13 in 0915 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 6.6 E 0.13 in 0725 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 5.7 E 0.13 in 0634 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 4.5 E 0.11 in 0700 AM 07/19 Sandia Heights 4 SW 0.10 in 0910 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 4.1 E 0.10 in 0700 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 7.8 ESE 0.10 in 0700 AM 07/19 Albuquerque 5.7 NNW 0.10 in 0700 AM 07/19 ...Catron County... Old Horse Springs 19 SSE (Pe 1.02 in 0838 AM 07/19 14.3 S Luna (JE-FULLER) 0.91 in 0541 PM 07/18 Quemado Lake 6 SSE (Slaughte 0.69 in 0812 AM 07/19 T Bar 0.62 in 0839 AM 07/19 Glenwood 8.8 NNW 0.54 in 0700 AM 07/19 Datil 11 NNE (Datil) 0.33 in 0911 AM 07/19 Mogollon 1 WSW (Mogollon) 0.27 in 0813 AM 07/19 Luna 1 ENE (Luna) 0.25 in 0907 AM 07/19 Reserve Ranger Stn 0.23 in 0908 AM 07/19 Datil 4.9 SW 0.21 in 0700 AM 07/19 Reserve 1 W 0.19 in 0915 AM 07/19 Glenwood 3 W (JE-FULLER) 0.19 in 0540 PM 07/18 Datil 2.0 W 0.14 in 0700 AM 07/19 ...Chaves County... Bitter Lake WL Refuge 14 NNE 0.87 in 0837 AM 07/19 Mesa 4 SW 0.55 in 0800 AM 07/19 Dunken 2 NE (Dunken) 0.48 in 0836 AM 07/19 Mesa 11 NW 0.34 in 0700 AM 07/19 Roswell 19.3 N 0.32 in 0713 AM 07/19 Roswell 6.0 NNW 0.21 in 0700 AM 07/19 ...Cibola County... Pine Hill 14 SSE 0.36 in 0834 AM 07/19 Bluewater Lake 9 SSW (Bluewa 0.32 in 0905 AM 07/19 Ramah 3.1 ENE 0.28 in 0600 AM 07/19 Grants 1.6 NE 0.12 in 0700 AM 07/19 Acoma Pueblo 19 SW (Brushy M 0.10 in 0849 AM 07/19 El Morro 16 SSE (Malpais Lav 0.10 in 0825 AM 07/19 San Mateo 6 SSW (Grants) 0.10 in 0816 AM 07/19 ...Curry County... Clovis 2.3 NNE 0.50 in 0700 AM 07/19 Texico 13.6 N 0.20 in 0700 AM 07/19 ...De Baca County... Fort Sumner 9.0 SSE 0.43 in 0700 AM 07/19 Fort Sumner 0.5 SSW 0.21 in 0700 AM 07/19 Fort Sumner 8.9 NNW 0.10 in 0700 AM 07/19 ...Lincoln County... Roswell No. 2 Portable 0.62 in 0820 AM 07/19 Carrizozo 1 WNW 0.39 in 0916 AM 07/19 Ruidoso 1 NNW (Smokey Bear) 0.22 in 0900 AM 07/19 ...Los Alamos County... White Rock 0.39 in 0918 AM 07/19 White Rock 1.5 NNE 0.24 in 0800 AM 07/19 Los Alamos 7.1 SE 0.20 in 0800 AM 07/19 Los Alamos 6.9 SSE 0.14 in 0700 AM 07/19 ...McKinley County... Ramah 4.3 N 0.15 in 0700 AM 07/19 Gallup Airport 0.13 in 0853 AM 07/19 ...Mora County... Chacon 2.1 ENE 0.22 in 0700 AM 07/19 ...Rio Arriba County... Truchas 1.4 ESE 0.49 in 0700 AM 07/19 Coyote 7 SSW (Coyote) 0.34 in 0848 AM 07/19 Monero 12 S (Stone Lake) 0.34 in 0833 AM 07/19 Alcalde 19 N 0.25 in 0700 AM 07/19 Chama 1.0 N 0.16 in 0700 AM 07/19 Dulce (Dulce No. 2) 0.15 in 0828 AM 07/19 Chama 6.6 SSE 0.12 in 0500 AM 07/19 ...San Juan County... Navajo Dam 12 N (Albino Cany 0.44 in 0826 AM 07/19 ...San Miguel County... Sapello 5.1 WNW 0.17 in 0700 AM 07/19 ...Sandoval County... Cebollita Spring (DRI) 0.28 in 0800 AM 07/19 Deer Lake Estates 0.27 in 0918 AM 07/19 Valles Caldera HQ (DRI) 0.26 in 0800 AM 07/19 Jemez Springs (DRI) 0.23 in 0800 AM 07/19 Corrales 1.6 WSW 0.21 in 0635 AM 07/19 La Cueva 2 SSE (Jemez) 0.17 in 0908 AM 07/19 Corrales 1.1 W 0.17 in 0654 AM 07/19 Corrales 1.4 NNE 0.17 in 0600 AM 07/19 Rio Rancho 2.5 E 0.13 in 0700 AM 07/19 Placitas 2.0 E 0.12 in 0700 AM 07/19 Corrales 1.3 ENE 0.11 in 0700 AM 07/19 Rio Rancho 3.2 E 0.11 in 0700 AM 07/19 Bernalillo 2.7 WSW 0.10 in 0700 AM 07/19 ...Santa Fe County... Edgewood 2 N 2.06 in 0915 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 5 E (Santa Fe Water 0.56 in 0853 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 6.4 SE 0.53 in 0700 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 3.6 ENE 0.50 in 0649 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 10.8 SE 0.46 in 0630 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 2.9 ENE 0.42 in 0700 AM 07/19 Glorieta 6 WNW 0.39 in 0730 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 10.3 SSE 0.36 in 0700 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 2.6 E 0.35 in 0700 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 2.9 ENE 0.34 in 0600 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 10.2 S 0.33 in 0700 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 2.3 NE 0.33 in 0700 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 4 ENE 0.32 in 0745 PM 07/18 Lamy 5 NW 0.31 in 0730 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 8.7 S 0.30 in 0700 AM 07/19 Eldorado at Santa Fe 0.5 E 0.26 in 0800 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 11.4 SSE 0.24 in 0700 AM 07/19 Tesuque 1 W 0.21 in 0903 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 3 ENE 0.20 in 0920 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 3.7 NE 0.18 in 0800 AM 07/19 Lamy 1 N 0.16 in 0745 PM 07/18 Santa Fe 0.6 ENE 0.14 in 0730 AM 07/19 Pojoaque 0.7 N 0.13 in 0700 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 0.7 E 0.12 in 0700 AM 07/19 Santa Fe 4.6 NW 0.11 in 0700 AM 07/19 Madrid 0.6 SSW 0.10 in 0700 AM 07/19 ...Socorro County... VLA 16 SSE (Magdalena) 1.43 in 0903 AM 07/19 San Antonio 1 SW 0.32 in 0740 AM 07/19 Socorro Airport 0.29 in 0915 AM 07/19 Bosque Del Apache 1 NNE (Bos 0.26 in 0850 AM 07/19 San Antonio 0.16 in 0800 AM 07/19 Magdalena 2.4 SSE 0.12 in 0700 AM 07/19 Polvadera 0.5 S 0.10 in 0700 AM 07/19 ...Taos County... Ranchos De Taos 4.0 W 0.26 in 0706 AM 07/19 Ranchos De Taos 2.2 WNW 0.17 in 0700 AM 07/19 Arroyo Seco 3 SW 0.14 in 0915 AM 07/19 ...Torrance County... Cibola Portable No. 2 0.47 in 0839 AM 07/19 Red Canyon 0.24 in 0838 AM 07/19 Moriarty 1 NE 0.23 in 0700 AM 07/19 Moriarty Muni Airport 0.21 in 0915 AM 07/19 Estancia 7 SSW 0.20 in 0745 PM 07/18 Moriarty 1.0 SSW 0.13 in 0623 AM 07/19 Mountainair 8 NW 0.10 in 0700 AM 07/19 ...Valencia County... Meadow Lake 0.80 in 0800 AM 07/19 Los Lunas 3.5 E 0.21 in 0700 AM 07/19 Los Lunas 3.3 ESE 0.10 in 0800 AM 07/19 Los Lunas 3.6 SE 0.10 in 0700 AM 07/19 &&
Public Information Statement National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 937 AM MDT Sun Jul 19 2026 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Lat/Lon Canutillo 1.2 W 2.03 in 0706 AM 07/19 31.93N/106.63W Silver City 2.4 E 1.49 in 0600 AM 07/19 32.79N/108.23W Silver City 3.0 E 1.48 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.78N/108.22W Hanover 4.1 E 1.42 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.82N/108.02W Canutillo 0.7 WNW 1.24 in 0600 AM 07/19 31.92N/106.61W Bayard 5.8 N 1.10 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.84N/108.14W Silver City 0.86 in 0915 AM 07/19 32.79N/108.26W Silver City 0.5 N 0.76 in 0900 AM 07/19 32.79N/108.27W Lookout Mountain (SNOTEL) 0.70 in 0800 AM 07/19 33.36N/107.83W Bell Canyon 0.61 in 0926 AM 07/19 32.97N/105.55W Bayard 8.9 ENE 0.60 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.82N/108.00W Signal Peak (SNOTEL) 0.60 in 0800 AM 07/19 32.92N/108.15W Silver City 3.4 SW 0.58 in 0530 AM 07/19 32.74N/108.30W Canutillo 0.55 in 0910 AM 07/19 31.91N/106.60W Silver City 0.5 WNW 0.54 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.79N/108.27W El Paso 9.2 W 0.54 in 0800 AM 07/19 31.87N/106.59W Hanover 5ENE 0.53 in 0929 AM 07/19 32.82N/108.00W Silver City 5.3 NE 0.52 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.84N/108.20W LA LUZ 0.51 in 0930 AM 07/19 33.01N/105.85W Silver City 1.1 NW 0.51 in 0800 AM 07/19 32.79N/108.28W Silver City 2.6 SE 0.51 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.75N/108.24W Deming 11.7 N 0.50 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.43N/107.76W Silver City 0.3 WNW 0.49 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.78N/108.27W Las Cruces 16.2 NW 0.44 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.50N/106.95W Silver City 0.8 S 0.44 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.77N/108.27W El Paso 7.8 WNW 0.44 in 0700 AM 07/19 31.88N/106.57W Silver City 0.9 WSW 0.43 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.78N/108.28W San Andres RAWS 0.43 in 0901 AM 07/19 32.58N/106.53W Bayard 2.8 N 0.42 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.80N/108.13W Grant County Airport AWOS 0.38 in 0915 AM 07/19 32.63N/108.15W Hachita Valley 0.37 in 0840 AM 07/19 31.70N/108.34W Silver City 4.6 W 0.35 in 0730 AM 07/19 32.77N/108.34W Hillsboro 0.1 ESE 0.35 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.92N/107.57W 3.3 W Santa Teresa 0.34 in 1200 AM 07/19 31.87N/106.70W Winston 0.6 SSE 0.32 in 0800 AM 07/19 33.34N/107.64W Hillsboro 0.3 WSW 0.32 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.92N/107.57W Silver City 2.1 NW 0.31 in 0700 AM 07/19 32.80N/108.29W &&



















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