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Updated (July 16th - Final Update) NWS Albuquerque 2026 Monsoon Outlook

My 2026 CoCoRaHS Precipitation Totals/Averages.

My 2026 CoCoRaHS Precipitation Totals/Averages.
As Of June 6, 2026.

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July Rainfall Totals So Far - Oven Weather Ahead - Watching Bertha.

July 17, 2026.
Looking Southeast From Atoka.
Blowing Dust From T-Storm Outflow Winds.

The Have & Have Nots For July Rainfall.
(July 1st - July 20th, 2026).

It is just crazy how wildly varied rainfall totals so far this July are adding up across the state. Artesia is a prime example. The Artesia Airport is one of the driest places in the state this July, with only .01" of rainfall recorded so far. A PWS in Artesia has only recorded .04" so far. Yet the Atoka XL AWS 2.25 miles south of Atoka has recorded 1.91".

Perhaps the most extreme example is the Cool Pines RV Park PWS located west-northwest of Mayhill with an astounding 10.25" so far. Yet down the road some 8 miles southeast, the Mayhill CoCoRaHS Station 4.0 SE is only reporting a July total of .81". 

Hit-and-miss rainfall has definitely been the theme for rainfall this month across the state. 

Cool Pines RV Park PWS WNW of Mayhill 10.25"

Mogollon Raws 8.45"
Salinas Peak WSMR 6.02"

Silver City PWS 5.19"

Bayard CoCoRaHS 2.8 N 4.91"
Silver City CoCoRaHS 2.7 NNW 4.87"
Grants Raws - West Side of Mt. Taylor 4.73"
Water Spirit Trail PWS - Alto 4.62"
Signal Peak Snotel 4.50"
Alto Water Treatment HADS 4.39"
Bell Canyon PWS - NW of Mayhill 4.22"

Nogal NMCC 3.81"
Sierra Blanca Snotel 3.80"
Alto CoCoRaHS 2.8 E 3.79"
Cloudcroft NWS Climate COOP 3.74"
Zuni Buttes Raws 3.55"
Alto PWS 3.53"
Walker Canyon Cabin PWS - NW of Mayhill 3.53

Pierce Canyon PWS - S of Cloudcroft 3.27" 
Bears Den PWS - West Ruidoso 3.22"
Carlsbad CoCoRaHS 3.6 N 3.06"
Las Cruces Little Dam Alert 3.05"
Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 1.8 SW 3.03"

Cloudcroft CoCoRaHS 0.4 ESE 2.90"
Timberon PWS 2.89"
Las Cruces CoCoRaHS University Park 3.8 N 2.81"
Myers Canyon PWS - Sacramento 2.79"
Tatum CoCoRaHS 0.9 E 2.75"
Carlsbad Airport ASOS 2.74"
3 Cross PWS - N of Dunken 2.70"
Ruidoso NWS Climate COOP 2.65"
Queen Raws 50 WSW of Carlsbad 2.65"
Mescal Raws - Mescalero 2.58"
Portales - Rosevelt NMCC 2.55"
Timberon CoCoRaHS 0.3 NNW 2.49"
Burnt Well NMCC - SW of Roswell 2.36"
2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad CoCoRaHS 2.20" 
Lovington Golf Course NMCC 2.15"
Mayhill PWS 2.07"
Roswell XL AWS 6.25 NW 2.03"

Tatum PWS 1.97"
Mayhill Raws 1.97"
Atoka XL AWS 2.25 S 1.91"
Black River Village XL AWS 1.71"
Aspen Grove PWS SSW of Cloudcroft 1.84"
Dog Canyon Raws Guadalupe Mtns Natl Park 1.84"
Nichols Ranch NMCC 1.63"
Dunken Raws 1.59"
Paduca Raws - Near WIPP 1.58"
Las Cruces NM ST Main Campus NMCC 1.55"
Sacramento Peak WSMR 1.51"
Runyan Ranches NMCC 1.38"
High Rolls PWS 1.28"
Elk NWS Climate COOP 1.17"
Carrizozo NMCC 1.15"
Artesia NWS Climate COOP 1.09"
Jal Country Club NMCC 1.06"
Hope CoCoRaHS 1.02"

Roswell CoCoRaHS 1.7 NW .96"
Dark Ridge Observatory PWS - Weed .96"
Hobbs Regional Airport AWOS .93"
Eagle Nest NWS Climate COOP .92"
Caprock NWS Climate COOP .90"
Mountain Park NWS Climate COOP .89"
Mayhill CoCoRaHS 4.0 SSE .81"
Bat Draw Raws - Carlsbad Caverns .77"
Conor Ct PWS - Capitan .76"
Gallup Municipal Airport ASOS .73"
Hope NMCC 4.9 W .71"
Lakewood PWS .71"
Lake Arthur CoCoRaHS 2.5 ESE .70"
Holloman AFFB ASOS .63"
Eunice XL AWS 1.25 ESE .62"
Loving NMCC .58"
Farmington Regional Airport ASOS .57"
Clayton Airport ASOS .54"
Loving High School PWS .53"

Brantley Dam NWS Climate COOP .47"
Alamogordo Municipal Airport AWOS .46"
Tularosa CoCoRaHS 1.0 E .45"
El Paso International Airport ASOS .44"
Roswell NMMI ES .37"
Santa Fe Municipal Airport AWOS .28"
Roswell Industrial Air Center ASOS .20"
Albuquerque International Airport ASOS .04"
Artesia PWS Huntergriz .04"
Cannon AFB - Clovis .04"
Cottonwood PWS .02"
Artesia Airport AWOS .01"

Wednesday will start a ten-day period or so of highs in the 100 - 105 range across southern, southeastern and eastern New Mexico as well as across West Texas. This morning's run of the ECMWF model forecasts 108 to 109 in the Pecos Valley Friday. It's just fixing to get downright hot again with little to no chance of seeing rain at the lower elevations. 

Flood Watches remain in effect for parts of Lincoln and Otero Counties, western and northwestern New Mexico. The burn scars around the Ruidoso area continue to be a concern and will be as long as thunderstorms produce heavy rainfall over or near them. 

Bertha became a tropical storm this morning with 60 mph sustained winds. Her forecast track westward has been shifted slightly north. By Saturday, current model forecasts place the Tropical Depression (formerly Tropical Storm Bertha) over central Texas. This is still uncertain, as the westward track of Bertha is still not set in stone. 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
142 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Rain chances persist in the forecast through this evening in/
  near the higher terrain. Localized flash flooding remains of
  concern in the event of heavy rainfall.

- Hot and mostly dry weather returns Wednesday onward, with
  increasing coverage of triple digit highs. Persistent heat will
  present an increased risk of heat-related illnesses.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Upper-level ridging begins to build back into west Texas and
southeast New Mexico today. This ridge will be the dominate
influence on our weather for at least the next several days. Highs
tick up today relative to yesterday. Most locations top out in the
mid-to-upper 90s, with some 100s along the Rio Grande. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are once again expected to develop in the
western higher terrain this afternoon and evening (20-40% chances).
Similar to yesterday, the biggest concern with storms that develop
would be heavy rain leading to some flash flooding. Cloud cover and
rain chances keep highs in the 80s and low 90s for locations in and
around the higher terrain today. Overnight lows in the low-to-mid
70s will be commonplace (low-to-mid 60s in the mountains).
Temperatures tick up again Wednesday as the ridge continues to
build. Highs near or just above 100 degrees are forecast across the
area Wednesday (low 90s in/near the higher terrain). In fact, KMAF
has about a 75% chances of hitting 100 degrees tomorrow, which would
be the first time since July 4th. Overnight lows Wednesday likewise
trend up a couple of degrees relative to tonight`s. Subsidence from
the ridge largely limits rain chances tomorrow, though a couple of
isolated showers and storms may still develop in the higher terrain
thanks to upslope flow.

Sprang

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 131 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

An expansive upper-level ridge will dominate the region, sustaining
hot and primarily dry conditions throughout the forecast period. By
Friday, the ridge axis will shift briefly toward the Four Corners,
allowing weak northerly flow aloft to potentially steer mountain-
initiated convection from New Mexico into the northwestern portion
of the area. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist for the next
seven days.

Widespread triple-digit temperatures are expected, with most areas
reaching 100-105F throughout the week and into the weekend. Extreme
heat, with peak temperatures of 110-115F, will be concentrated
across the Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms may develop near PEQ, CNM, and FST this afternoon, so
have included PROB30s at these sites for -TSRA. Otherwise, light
southeasterly to southerly winds persist at all terminals.

&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
Issued by National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1225 PM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will favor the central mountain chain
  westward through Wednesday with a risk of lightning, heavy rain,
  localized flooding, gusty outflow winds, and small hail.

- The greatest risk for isolated flash flooding will focus along
  and west of the central mountain chain through Wednesday, as
  well as the Ruidoso area burn scars.

- Moderate to major heat risk will afflict lower elevations of
  central and eastern New Mexico during the latter half of the
  week into the weekend where highs climb back into the 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1226 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A yin and yang weather pattern remains over the Intermountain West
highlighted by a 596dm H5 high centered near Salt Lake City while an
inverted wave continues to progress slowly westward across southern
NM. While this past evening`s convection has exited westward into
AZ, CAMs are picking up on the potential for a cluster of showers
and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm developing near the center of
the aforementioned low over southern Socorro County early this
morning predawn. Otherwise, conditions look to be fairly tranquil
elsewhere across the forecast area to start Tuesday.

This afternoon`s diurnally driven convection will again favor
development over the high terrain along and west of the central
mountain chain. Steering flow will generally take storms E to W
early, before switching more SE to NW by the evening as the low
begins to non-canonically make a right turn at Albuquerque toward
the Four Corners region and Navajo Nation. With PWATs still hovering
at or above the 90th percentile in the 1.00" to 1.20" range over
much of the state, any of these afternoon storms could become very
efficient rain producers. Good steering flow favoring storm motions
of 10-20 mph will help limit the flash flood potential though.
However, a marginal to slight flash flood risk remains mainly for
areas along west of the Continental Divide as any potential flooding
impacts will depend on a game between the modest storm motions and
storms tracking over already rain soaked areas or over the same
location repeatedly. A Flood Watch issuance over west-central NM and
the southwest mountains in Catron County was considered due to this.
However, water vapor imagery is showing a notable tongue of dry air
protruding over the area north of the center of the inverted
low/trough. The latest runs of numerical model guidance does not
seem to be picking up on that just yet. HiRes CAMs also denote
general rainfall totals of 0.10" to 0.50" with only localized
amounts reaching 1.00+" from stronger and more rain efficient
thunderstorms. NAEFs climatology also depicts only a 1 std dev of
PWAT over the region, with the higher anomalous monsoon moisture
further west into AZ and this could be lower given the
aforementioned tongue of dry air. All of that to say a Flood Watch
was not issued for west-central NM and the southwest mountains in
Catron County, though there remains a low 5% to 10% risk of flash
flooding if storms can move slower, along and parallel to drainage
basins, overcome mid-to-upper level dry air intrusion and track over
the same areas repeatedly.

Regarding flash flood potential for the Ruidoso area burn scars
Tuesday, the dry air tongue is north of the area allowing for deeper
monsoonal moisture to linger. A N/NW storm motion will also favor
potential anchoring of updrafts near or just south of the burn scars
allowing for longer residence time of thunderstorm activity.
Therefore, the Flood Watch there remains intact. Wednesday sees a
similar but slightly less flash flood risk with northerly steering
flow taking storms along the Sacramento Mtn ridgeline and over or
near the burn scars.

Evening convection lingers longest over western NM, clearing out
overnight into Wednesday morning. Wednesday sees the tango dance
between the inverted trough and the monsoon high swing the high over
northern TX and the trough over SE UT. This will again favor
afternoon thunderstorm activity along and west of the central
mountain chain. The subtle difference will be higher convective
activity along the Sangre de Cristo Mts relative to recent days.
Storm motions will also favor a S to N direction. Subsequent
convection will try to build over nearby valley areas of north-
central NM and could favor areas of Rio Arriba and northern Sandoval
Counties fairly well in terms of rain amounts late day and evening.
Late evening will try to spread into the Rio Grande Valley, but
steering flow looks to be a bit too northerly to truly favor the ABQ
metro area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 1226 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Thursday sees the monsoon high slide over NM bringing hotter
temperatures to the area, notably eastern NM where low to mid 100s
will be favored again. Highs in the 90s to near 100 will favor lower
elevation areas of central and western NM. A moderate to high heat
risk will result each day, mainly for central and eastern NM as a
result. Lingering low-level moisture will favor a moisture recycling
trend each day Thursday onward through the weekend with little
changes to the overall weather pattern as the high loiters over NM.
As such, expect daily rounds of afternoon thunderstorm activity
developing over the high terrain, slowly meandering over surrounding
lower elevations late afternoon, and lingering and dying out through
the late evening hours. Wetting footprints will be small as such,
with localized rain shafts under storms. Any flash flooding concerns
will be where the slowest storms occur, but suppression beneath the
high should limit this threat.

&&
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1135 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1112 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

 - Lower storm coverage today, with scattered thunderstorms in the
   northern Gila Region, and isolated coverage elsewhere in SW New
   Mexico. Isolated storms are also expected in the Sacramento
   mountains and the El Paso Lower Valley. Due to slow storm
   motion, the few storms that can form will be capable of
   localized flash flooding.

 - Drier and warmer weather pattern later this week, limiting
   storms to western New Mexico and the high elevations. Lowland
   temperatures will begin reaching triple digits Friday into
   next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Convective complex from last night has helped to regenerate a
closed mid-level low embedded in the inverted trough that has been
slowly transiting the area over the past several days. The
inverted trough axis will lift into the Gila Region by this
afternoon, while the upper low slowly crawls towards the Arizona
state line. Significant convective debris (cloud cover and light
showers) caught under the low will limit instability today over SW
New Mexico. GFS 200 mb streamlines show upper level convergence
axis currently along the Rio Grande shifting west this afternoon
as well, further inhibiting convective potential. Expect today
will mostly be a "down" day, especially compared to the last three
days. Best chances for storms will be in northern Grant County
along the trough axis, with isolated storms over the Sacramentos
and Hudspeth County/the El Paso Lower Valley. A isolated storm
under the upper low in SW New Mexico can`t be ruled out either,
though coverage will be limited. But anything that manages to form
there will have very slow storm motion. East of the Rio Grande,
storms will tend to train with mid and upper-level steering flow
all from the SSE to NNW.

HRRR has been consistently suggesting additional showers/storms
will roll up into the Lower Valley towards El Paso later tonight,
aided by a vort lobe on the back side of the departing upper low.

Going forward, a sharp downturn in precip chances is expected as
the subtropical ridge builds westward, boosting mid level
temperatures (-2 to -3C at 500 mb). Isolated storms in the
Bootheel Region, Sacramento Mountains, and Hudspeth County will be
the main focus for isolated storms.

By Thursday and Friday, the subtropical ridge will park over us,
and strengthen to 598-599 dm. A notable inverted trough will move
into northeastern Mexico, but will pass far to our south over
Durango Friday, reaching Baja Sur by Saturday. A rather mid-late
June-like pattern. Max Temps will follow suit, climbing to around
100-105 in the lowlands late in the week, with Heat Advisories
possibly being needed for El Paso and the Lower Valley.

Some upper level moisture will sneak in from the east on Saturday,
which if you trace it back, is partially recycled moisture from
today working all the way around the subtropical ridge, which will
have drifted closer to the Four Corners by the weekend. Thus,
expect an uptick in precip chances, especially in the Sacs/Gila
for Saturday and Sunday, hopefully taking the edge off the heat.

&&




(Valid At 5 PM MDT Friday, July 24, 2026).


National Blend Of Models (NBM) 10-Day Total Rainfall Forecast.


Weather Prediction Center (WPC) 7-Day Total Rainfall Forecast.



(Jun 15th - July 20th, 2026).



NWS El Paso/Santa Teresa Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimates.
(As of 8:41 PM MDT Monday, July 20, 2026).



Holloman AFB Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimates.
(As of 8:48 PM MDT Monday, July 20, 2026).




Tropical Storm Bertha.

Water Vapor Satellite Image.
(At 12: 40 PM MDT Tuesday, July 21, 2026).







Tropical Storm Bertha Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
 
Bertha has become slightly better organized this morning. While the 
low-level center was fully exposed overnight, new deep convection 
has developed this morning and the center has become at least 
partially tucked underneath the cold overcast. The Air Force 
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the storm, and they 
reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 62 kt within the 
convection to the southeast of the center, along with layer-averaged 
dropsonde winds that support raising the initial intensity to 50 kt. 
The central pressure has fallen slightly to 995 mb.

Bertha has deviated north of the forecast track during the past 
several hours, and the initial motion is north-northwestward (345/3 
kt). The near-term track forecast has been adjusted northward to 
account for this development. While Bertha is currently in fairly 
weak steering currents, a mid-level ridge centered near the Rockies 
is expected to move southeastward during the next couple of days. 
This should cause Bertha to turn more west-northwestward and then 
westward while it moves near or along the northern Gulf Coast 
through midweek. While the track models are overall in good 
agreement on this scenario, there are differences in how much land 
interaction with southeastern Louisiana will occur, and whether a 
new center may redevelop off the coast. Little change was made to 
the NHC track forecast beyond 24 h, and once again this forecast 
assumes Bertha is able to maintain a cohesive circulation as it 
passes near or over the northern Gulf Coast.

Bertha remains an asymmetric tropical storm, with most of the 
rainfall and the strongest winds occurring to the south and east of 
the center. Strong northeasterly vertical wind shear over Bertha is 
forecast to persist today and tonight, which should make it 
difficult for Bertha to strengthen much more. Convection is expected 
to continue pulsing to the south of Bertha's center during this 
time, and the NHC forecast overall shows gradual weakening over the 
next few days. The extent of this weakening will depend on how much 
land interaction occurs during the next couple of days, and it 
remains possible that Bertha could degenerate into a trough even 
sooner than forecast due to a disrupted structure within hostile 
environmental conditions.

Some notable watch/warning changes were made with this advisory 
package. The Tropical Storm Warning was extended eastward across 
the Florida Panhandle and westward to the Terrebonne/Lafourche 
Parish Line in Louisiana. In addition, the Storm Surge Watch has 
been replaced with a Coastal Flood Warning issued by the local 
forecast office. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is still 
expected to occur between the Mississippi/Alabama Border and the 
Mouth of the Mississippi River, with peak values up to 4 ft above 
ground level. 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Bertha is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions 
of the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to 
southeastern Louisiana later today and Wednesday, where a Tropical 
Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are possible 
for Metro New Orleans and the southern Gulf Coast of Louisiana, 
where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.
 
2. A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and 
Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is expected. 
 
3. Interests elsewhere in Louisiana and Texas should monitor the 
progress of this system, as additional watches or warnings could be 
required for portions of that area.
 
4. Isolated areas of flash flooding will be possible through Friday 
along the Gulf Coast from western Florida into southern Louisiana 
and the Upper Texas coast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/1500Z 29.3N  86.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  22/0000Z 29.4N  87.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  22/1200Z 29.5N  88.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  23/0000Z 29.4N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  23/1200Z 29.3N  91.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  24/0000Z 29.4N  93.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 72H  24/1200Z 29.9N  94.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  25/1200Z 31.0N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bertha Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022026
100 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026
 
...BERTHA BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...  
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 86.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MOBILE ALABAMA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay/Gulf County Line in Florida to the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish
Line in Louisiana
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of the Terrebonne/Lafourche Parish Line to the 
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case in the next 24 to 48
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was 
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 86.8 West. Bertha is 
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the 
west-northwest and west is expected later today, with a continued 
westward motion forecast Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast 
track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during 
the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Little change in strength is expected today, and gradual weakening 
is forecast Wednesday through Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) 
from the center. A National Ocean Service station in Panama City 
Beach, Florida, recently reported sustained winds of 42 mph (68 
km/h) and a gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 
995 mb (29.39 inches).

 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bertha can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header
WTNT42 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue spreading across 
portions of the warning area later today through Wednesday. Tropical 
storm conditions are possible within the watch area in Louisiana by 
late Wednesday.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the immediate coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Aucilla River, FL...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1-3 ft
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River,
LA...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2
to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through
Thursday along the central Gulf Coast from western Florida into
southern Louisiana. This rainfall may produce isolated flash
flooding, especially in urban areas.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Bertha, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward 
along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells 
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.

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