Early this morning a powerful winter storm was diving into the Pacific Northwest. This storm will move rapidly southeastward today into tomorrow, and by noontime tomorrow it is forecast to be located over central Arizona. Winter Storm Watches have been issued for western and northern New Mexico. Southern and southeastern New Mexico is going to get sand blasted.
A few elevated thunderstorms will be possible tonight across parts of southeastern New Mexico as low level upslope flow from the Gulf of Mexico moves northwestward and interacts with the approaching upper-level storm from the west. Hobbs, and Carlsbad, have about a 20% chance of getting wet tonight.
Valid At 5 AM MST Wednesday.
Valid At 5 PM MST Wednesday.
Very strong winds aloft (125 mph at 18,000' MSL) will mix downward to the surface on Wednesday as the storm moves towards the Four Corners. This combined with a very tight surface pressure gradient and approaching Pacific Cold Front will make for one very windy and dusty day across the local area.
Southwesterly winds are forecast to increase to sustained speeds of around 30 - 40 mph with gusts near 60 mph tomorrow morning across Eddy County. Even higher winds are forecast for the Guadalupe mountains tomorrow. Southwesterly winds will increase to sustained speeds of 30 - 40 mph with gusts near 60 mph this afternoon, and then become sustained at around 45 - 65 mph with gusts near 85 mph tomorrow. Cloudcroft is expecting southwesterly winds to gust up to near 70 mph tomorrow.
Additional watches, warnings, and advisories may be issued for parts of the area concerning tomorrows winds. I think its possible that we may see some gusts exceed 60 mph across parts of the local area tomorrow, especially along and near the foothills.
Blowing dust will also become widespread across the area tomorrow. Visibilities in the more dust prone locations such as freshly plowed or exposed farmland and fields, lots, and construction sites, will see sudden drops in the visibility down to near zero with little to no advanced warning. Travel upon some of our local highways may become dangerous due to the high winds and blinding clouds of blowing dust.
Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions will also be prevalent across the area tomorrow. Any wildfire that may accidentally become started will have the ability to rapidly spread and grow in the high winds. So please refrain from any type of outdoor activity that involves the use of sparks or flames.
A few thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow afternoon and evening along and east of the dryline, which is forecast to sharpen up along the NM/TX state line. Some of these may become severe.
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