142-Degree Temperature Spread Forecast Tomorrow Morning!














Today marks the last day of the 2013-2014 meteorological winter. As of 2 PM MST temperatures ranged from 91F in south Texas to -26F in southern Canada. That's a temperature spread of 117-degrees.  

Saturday marks the beginning of the meteorological spring. According to the RAP computer forecast model temperatures at 5 AM MST tomorrow morning will range from 81F in south Texas, to a bone chilling -61F in southern Canada. That will be an incredible temperature spread of 142-degrees!

Welcome to spring folks.

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Now That's A Front!


Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday.




An amazing temperature contrast will exist along and behind the arctic cold front on Saturday. Temperatures Saturday afternoon will vary from the 80's across southeastern New Mexico and west Texas to -25F in North Dakota. At least a 110-degree difference between the two air masses separating the frontal boundary. 

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100-Degree Temperature Differences Saturday.






A colder airmass lies banked up along and east of the central mountain chain of New Mexico at 3 PM MST. Its 20-degrees colder in Roswell than it is in Alamogordo.


Today's 18Z/11 AM MST GFS Temperature Anomaly Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday.

Today's 18Z/11 AM MST GFS Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday.

Today's 18Z/11 AM MST GFS Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday.

Today's 18Z/11 AM MST GFS Wind Chill Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday.

Our latest National Weather Service forecast high temperature for Carlsbad, New Mexico on Saturday is 85. Compare this to temperatures as cold as -15F in Montana with wind chill values down to -35F. That's a 100-degree temperature difference! Id say that we ought to consider ourselves pretty lucky given the fact that its still February.

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Cooler Today - Colder Tonight With A Possible Light Wintry Precipitation Mixture.




 



A cold front slipped into southeastern New Mexico earlier this morning. This front will stall over the area today with a stronger surge of colder arctic air arriving tonight. Most of us will see high temps today in the 50's to near 60.


This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM-WRF Forecast Temps.
Valid @ 4 PM MST This Afternoon.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM-WRF Forecast Temps.
Valid @ 7 AM MST Tomorrow.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST NAM-WRF Forecast Temps.
Valid @ Noon MST Tomorrow.


This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 11 PM MST Tonight.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Tomorrow.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Tomorrow.


As colder air moves in later tonight low clouds and perhaps a few areas of light precipitation are forecast to break out around midnight. Our chances of seeing measurable precipitation in southeastern New Mexico still remain low at around 10% - 20%. A mix of light rain, light drizzle, light freezing drizzle or light freezing rain, and perhaps some light sleet will be possible especially in the southeastern corner of the state near the Texas state line. 

Please be careful on our local roads later tonight into tomorrow, as there could possibly be some slick spots develop.

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Arctic Cold Front Comes Knocking Tuesday Night.







We've experienced yet another day in February with temps in the 70's here in southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas. But if you take a look at the current temperatures maps posted above you can easily see that an arctic cold front is draped across northeastern Colorado, and extends southeastern into northern Texas. 



18Z/11 AM MST NAM-WRF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 2 PM MST Wednesday.

This cold front will work its way southward and westward into southeastern New Mexico Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Much colder air will overspread the area on Wednesday with most of us not getting out of the 40's for highs.


Today's 18Z/11 AM MST GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Wednesday.

Today's 18Z/11 AM MST GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Wednesday.

Low clouds and perhaps an area of very light wintry precipitation may develop behind the cold front Wednesday morning. Our chances of seeing measurable precipitation out of this are only around 20%.

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Where Is The Snow?

Blog Updated @ 9:25 AM MST Monday, Feb 24, 2014.

Looking West At 12,003' Sierra Blanca Peak Ruidoso, New Mexico.

Looking Northeast At 12,003' Sierra Blanca Peak From Tularosa, New Mexico.

Looking Northeast At Sierra Blanca Peak From Near Apache Summit.

Grindstone Lake Southwest Of Ruidoso, New Mexico.

Ski Apache has only received 45" of snow thus far this season with 15" on the ground at mid-mountain. Their average seasonal snowfall is 200+ inches. Just another testament of the affects of the ongoing drought.

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Warming Back Up Into The Weekend - But More Arctic Air By The Middle Of Next Week.




Low Temps This Morning.





Last Nights 00Z/5 PM MST GFS Temp Forecast.
Valid Next Wednesday, February 26, 2014.

Other than the blustery conditions with the wind, blowing dust, and cooler temps yesterday's weather wasn't so bad. Our brief cool down will end starting today. We can expect to see our afternoon temps climb back into the 70's into the weekend. Saturday will be the warmest day over the next week with most of the southeastern New Mexico plains reaching the low-mid 80's.

Winter is not over with by a long shot. Another blast of arctic air will invade the northern plains early next week and by mid-week will have worked its way south into our next of the woods. 

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Severe Weather Outbreak Today.




Severe weather is forecast today from the Ohio Valley to the Central Gulf Coast. Squally line thunderstorms are forecast to produce damaging winds. A few tornadoes will also be possible. A bit on the unusual side for February.


Only 32% Of The Nation Has Snow On The Ground.





Once again its fairly easy to see that a cold front is sliding southeastward across the area.




12Z/5 AM MST WRF Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 3 PM MST This Afternoon.

This morning is going to be a little bit on the windy side with northwesterly winds gusting up to around 25-35 mph behind the cold front. Higher gusts will be encountered in the Guadalupe, Sacramento, and Capitan mountains. A High Wind Warning remains in effect until 10 AM MST for the Ruidoso area for northwesterly winds that will gust up to around 60 mph.

Highs this afternoon across the southeastern plains will range from the low-upper 60's. Not to worry though because we will bounce right back temp-wise starting tomorrow with highs in the mid-upper 70's. Saturday will see the upper 70's to the low 80's, and Sunday will see the upper 70's to near 80.


GEFS Ensemble Mean 1-Day Average 2-Meter Temp Anomaly.
Valid February 28 - March 1st.

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