Welcome To Southeast New Mexico Weather.: 02/01/2015

Cold Day In New Mexico - Snowfall Totals.

Ski Apache Today.

Courtesy Of The Ski Apache FaceBook Page.

4" Of Snow In Roswell, NM This Morning.

Courtesy Of Chaves County Skywarn Coordinator Jim Tucker.

2 PM MST Temperatures.

Socked In With Low Clouds.

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Its Gonna Snow Again!

No Doubt Many People Feel This Way This Winter.

Long Duration Winter Storm Event For New Mexico.

Click On This Link For The Latest NWS Watches & Warnings.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Eddy and Lea Counties from 8 PM tonight into 11 AM Friday. Current NWS forecasts are calling for 2" - 4" of snow for us. As always we will see a varation of snowfall totals locally depending upon the exact track and speed of our inbound storm. I find it curious that Chaves County was not included in the Advisory, nor was Otero County.

Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Arctic Air Settles In As Snow Pick Up Tonight.

GFS (T1534) 500 MB Analysis.

Valid @ 11 AM MST This Morning.

Arctic air has settled into the eastern one half of New Mexico once again today. Low level easterly upslope flow behind the arctic cold front continues to import abundant low level moisture into the area. At the same time an upper level disturbance will dive southeastward out into New Mexico out of Utah tonight into Friday. Combine these two features and you have a good setup for snow in many areas of the state tonight into Friday. This is round one. Several more disturbances will drop into the state this weekend into next week keeping the snow machine going.

Much Colder Friday.

GFS (T1534) Temperature Anomaly Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Friday.

Colder air will continue to settle in over the area tonight into Friday. Our afternoon high temperatures on Friday will be running some 25 - 40 degrees below normal. Most of southeastern New Mexico will see lows tonight in to teens and 20;s and only see highs tomorrow in the 20's to near freezing. Our wind chill values will once again drop down into the single digits and teens tomorrow morning. This has been one of the craziest winters I can remember as far as our roller coaster temperatures rides.

Snow Tonight Into Friday.

HRRR Simulated Radar Forecast.

Valid @ 10 PM MST Tonight.

Snow will spread into southeastern New Mexico and increase overnight continuing into Friday around noon at least. The latest HRRR model (above) depicts snow really getting underway in southeastern New Mexico by 10 PM tonight.

Total Snowfall Forecasts.

GFS Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday.

Canadian (GEM) Valid @ 5 PM MST Monday.

NAM Valid @ 5 PM MST Sunday.

NAM/WRF Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday.

NCEP NDFD Valid @ 11 AM MST Sunday.

NCEP WPC Valid @ 5 AM MST Sunday.

Forecast snowfall totals in New Mexico at best is a headache for many reasons. One of the main factors in this difficult task is due to the varied complexity of the terrain across the state. Remember when looking at the model forecasts above that they are highly generic and do not take into account our mountainous terrain. Add to this take often our winter storms do not play nice and do what the models forecast...in fact this is more often true than not. So with this being said we are looking at some interesting storm totals across the state by next week. How about snowfall totals of 2 feet to 4 feet across some of the higher elevations of northern New Mexico near the New Mexico/Colorado state line. Gotta love late winter and early spring storms in this state!

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Winter Refuses To Die With A Vengeance!

GFS Surface MSLP & Precipitation Type Forecast.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Thursday.

Canadian (RGEM) Snowfall Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Friday.

NCEP WPC Snowfall Forecast.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Saturday.

NCEP NDFD Snowfall Forecast.

Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday.

A quick update with more details posted on Thursday. Simply put its back to winter by sunrise tomorrow morning when yet another arctic cold front enters southeastern New Mexico. Once again light snow is in our forecast starting late tonight and continuing into late Friday night. After seeing the mid 60's today in southeastern New Mexico we will only see the mid-upper 30's tomorrow and we will be lucky to break the freezing mark on Friday. A very active and stormy winter pattern will affect New Mexico tonight into next week. And to quote the Albuquerque NWS Office: "Northern New Mexico Mountainous locations may be measuring their snowfall by the feet when this is all said and done next week."

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Snow Tonight For Parts Of New Mexico.

Visible Satellite Image @ 3:45 PM MST This Afternoon.

GFS 500 MB Analysis @ 18Z/11 AM MST Today.

RAP Temperatures @ 2 PM MST Today.

Cold air (although warming up compared to yesterday) remains entrenched over the area. Meanwhile our upper level storm was centered over central Arizona today around noontime. It is forecast to move southeast into southeastern New Mexico and West Texas tonight into tomorrow morning. A cold unstable airmass aloft will accompany this storm as it moves overhead which will interact with the low level moisture already in place. This and the lift associated with the inbound storm will help to produce snow across the area tonight into tomorrow morning.

The short range models vary with their thinking as far as snowfall totals are concerned but generally agree that we will see the white stuff fall from the sky tonight into tomorrow morning. It appears that snowfall totals in southeastern New Mexico will range from just trace amounts to perhaps a couple of inches in places.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Cloudcroft area where 3" - 6" is forecast to fall 9,000' and above, 2" -4" at 7,500' to 9,000. Similar totals will also fall across the northern Sacramento Mtn's.

Courtesy Of NWS El Paso.

Snowfall Total Forecasts.

GFS Valid @ 5 PM MST Wednesday.

Canadian (RGEM) Valid @ 11 AM MST Wednesday.

NAM Valid @ 11 AM MST Wednesday.

RAP Valid @ 8 AM MST Wednesday.

HRRR Valid @ 4 AM MST Wednesday Morning.

BufKit Meteogram Forecast For Carlsbad, NM.

HRRR Composite Radar Simulated Reflectivity Forecast.

Valid @ 9 PM MST Tonight.

Valid @ 11 PM MST Tonight.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Cold Day In New Mexico - Northern Mtn's Get Heavy Snow.

Courtesy Of NOAA.

Great Lakes Total Ice Cover Nears 85 Percent: The NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory is showing total Great Lakes ice cover of 84.4 percent as of February 22, 2015, well above the long term average and closing in on last year's mark of 92.5 percent coverage on March 6, 2014.

In this image, Lake Erie is a vast white plain, joining Lake Huron and Lake Superior with coverage's above 90 percent and only small areas of open water. This image was taken by the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite's VIIRS instrument around 1803Z on February 23, 2015. Download it athttp://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php….

COLD Day In New Mexico.

RAP Temperatures @ 2 PM MST Today.

RAP Temperature Anomalies @ 2 PM MST Today.

Temperatures have changed very little so far today and little additional change from current readings is forecast into tomorrow morning. We are some 30-40 degrees below normal here in the southeastern plains. A Winter Weather Advisory continues in effect for this afternoon into 11 AM MST Tuesday morning for the local area. Freezing drizzle, freezing fog, and black ice on area roadways will continue to make travel in some locations difficult to dangerous.

GFS MSLP & Precipitation Type Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Thursday.

GFS MSLP & Precipitation Type Forecast.

Valid @ 11 AM MST Thursday.

Canadian (GEM) Total Snowfall Forecast.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday, March 2, 2015.

We will see a brief break from the cold starting Tuesday afternoon with a slow warm-up. Our highs are forecast to be in the 40's. Wednesday will see the 60's ahead of the next arctic cold front that is forecast to drop into southeastern New Mexico late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A couple of upper level storms will affect the area Thursday into the weekend bringing an additional shot at wintry weather and colder temperatures to the state and local area.

New Mexico Snowfall Totals.

• 3 E Red River - 24.0 in.
• Red River - 22.0 in.
• 3 ESE Angel Fire - 19.0 in.
• 1 WNW Red River - 17.5 in.
• 5 ESE Red River - 16.0 in.
• Eagle Nest - 15.0 in.
• 11 ENE Amalia - 14.0 in.
• Chama - 14.0 in.
• 8 SSW San Miguel - 13.0 in.
• 5 NW Chama - 13.0 in.
• 8 NE Arroyo Seco - 12.0 in.
• 11 NNW Canon Plaza - 12.0 in.
• 8 SE Eagle Nest - 12.0 in.
• 11 ENE Red River - 10.0 in.
• 2 NNE Questa - 9.5 in.
• 10 SSE Angel Fire - 9.4 in.
• Angel Fire - 8.3 in.
• 8 SSW Red River - 7.0 in.
• Raton - 7.0 in.
• 3 NW El Prado - 6.5 in.
• Arroyo Hondo - 6.5 in.
• 10 N Farmington - 6.1 in.
• 7 E Canjilon - 6.0 in.
• 2 WNW Clayton - 6.0 in.
• Fort Sumner - 4.0 in.
• 1 NW Ocate - 4.0 in.
• 2 E Chilili - 4.0 in.
• 13 NW Taos - 3.8 in.
• 2 SSW Los Cordovas - 3.5 in.
• 9 NE Aztec - 3.3 in.
• 3 NW Tres Ritos - 3.0 in.
• Raton - 3.0 in.
• 6 W Los Alamos - 3.0 in.
• 9 E Cuba - 3.0 in.
• 19 N Alcalde - 3.0 in.
• Taos - 3.0 in.
• 5 WNW Los Alamos - 3.0 in.
• 4 NW Tucumcari - 3.0 in.
• 2 NW El Rito - 2.7 in.
• 15 ESE Corona - 2.3 in.
• 3 NE Farmington - 2.0 in.
• 5 SSE Llano Largo - 2.0 in.
• 3 ENE Tucumcari - 2.0 in.
• 11 WSW Bluewater Lake - 2.0 in.
• Vaughn - 2.0 in.
• Conchas - 2.0 in.
• 4 NNW Tres Ritos - 2.0 in.
• 8 SW Rociada - 2.0 in.
• 2 WSW El Morro - 2.0 in.
• 3 NE Farmington - 2.0 in.
• 3 NE Tucumcari - 1.8 in.
• 3 NE Bonito Lake - 1.8 in.
• 1 ESE Sedillo - 1.8 in.
• 2 WNW Manuelitas - 1.7 in.
• 2 SE Manzano - 1.5 in.
• 2 SSE Alto - 1.5 in.
• 3 W Logan - 1.5 in.
• 1 NNE Youngsville - 1.5 in.
• 2 E San Antonito - 1.4 in.
• 3 N Broadview - 1.4 in.
• Aztec - 1.3 in.
• 5 E Tijeras - 1.2 in.
• 2 WNW Ponderosa - 1.2 in.
• 2 SW Portales - 1.0 in.
• 6 NNW Guadalupita - 1.0 in.
• 5 NW Canones - 1.0 in.
• 1 E Portair - 1.0 in.
• Magdalena - 1.0 in.
• 1 WSW Sedillo - 0.9 in.
• 1 NNW Romeroville - 0.9 in.
• 1 N Moriarty - 0.8 in.
• 2 W Datil - 0.8 in.
• 3 NNE Sedillo - 0.8 in.
• 1 ESE Truchas - 0.6 in.
• 8 NNW Gallup - 0.6 in.
• 3 ENE Ponderosa - 0.6 in.
• 3 E Clovis - 0.5 in.
• 1 WNW White Rock - 0.5 in.
• 1 S Mountainair - 0.5 in.
• 7 NW Milan - 0.5 in.
• 4 E Sandia Park - 0.5 in.
• 3 NNE Los Cerrillos - 0.5 in.
• 3 SE Las Vegas - 0.5 in.
• 6 SW Corona - 0.5 in.
• 4 E Sandia Park - 0.5 in.
• 1 SSE Gallup - 0.5 in.
• 4 SW Bloomfield - 0.4 in.
• 4 NNW Lamy - 0.3 in.
• 1 ESE Medanales - 0.3 in.
• 2 N Milan - 0.3 in.
• 1 NE Clovis - 0.3 in.
• 1 W Grants - 0.3 in.
• 3 S Farmington - 0.3 in.
• 3 N Lamy - 0.2 in.
• 1 SW Santa Fe - 0.2 in.
• 1 SSW Tijeras - 0.2 in.
• 4 NW Lamy - 0.2 in.
• 8 ENE Albuquerque - 0.2 in.
• 4 WSW Rio Rancho - 0.1 in.
• 5 NE Albuquerque - 0.1 in.
• 8 ESE Albuquerque - 0.1 in.
• 1 SSE Escondida - 0.1 in.
• 5 E Albuquerque - 0.1 in.
• 7 WNW Canoncito - 0.1 in.
• Velarde - T in.
• 2 SW Agua Fria - T in.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!