High Winds/Blowing Dust/High Fire Danger/High Mtn Snows Northern NM Return Wednesday.
Dusty Sunrise In Hobbs, NM.
Our afternoon high temps this afternoon in southeastern New Mexico are forecast to be near 90. Wednesday through Friday will be a tad bit cooler with highs in the mid to upper 80's. Saturday and Sunday will see highs near 70.
A Mix of wet and dry, scattered thunderstorms is forecast to break out over central and western New Mexico today. Dry lightning strikes may ignite new fires, and erratic wind gusts may produce localized areas of blowing dust from these storms.
A few light scattered rain showers will be possible over the Gila Region and Sacramento mountains on Wednesday. Nothing to write home about though.
Strong southwesterly to westerly winds will gust up to around 50 mph along and east of the central mountain chain Wednesday through Friday. Localized areas of blowing dust may develop during the stronger gusts.
The dryline will set up camp along the New Mexico and Texas state line on Wednesday afternoon before mixing eastward into the South Texas Plains and Permian Basin Wednesday night. A few high-based rain showers or more likely virga will be possible on Wednesday afternoon, but our chances of getting wet are very low (10%). A few virga bombs may occur. Which means strong downdraft winds slamming into the ground from precipitation aloft that falls from the clouds but fails to reach the ground.
The dryline is forecast to light up along and east of it with a few widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon and evening across the Texas South Plains southward to the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau.
Otherwise, a hot, windy, dusty day is forecast for the southern and eastern halves of New Mexico. Southwesterly to westerly winds are forecast to gust up to 40 to 50 mph with localized areas of blowing dust developing as the day wears on.
Southwest winds are forecast to gust up to near 50 mph across the southeastern plains and Sacramento Mountains on Wednesday.
A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy and Culberson Counties from 10 AM MDT Wednesday through midnight Wednesday night. Southwesterly winds may gust as high as 60-70 mph.
As of the posting of this blog ( 1:30 PM MDT Tuesday, March 31, 2026) there are no High Wind Watches/Warnings or Wind Advisories in effect for the state except for the Guadalupe Mountains. This could possibly change by tomorrow in some areas.
A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for southeastern New Mexico and parts of West Texas on Wednesday, and over the eastern half of the state. Not a good day for any type of outdoor activity involving the use of fire or sparks. Several fires have already occurred in the state, so please be careful not to cause any more.
A passing upper-level disturbance and southeastward-moving Pacific cold front will produce snow across the higher elevations of western and northern New Mexico on Wednesday and widely scattered rain showers at the lower elevations. The heavier snows will occur above 9,000', mainly over the west-facing slopes of the San Juan and Tusas mountains where 5" to 10" is forecast to fall.
Low temperatures across New Mexico are forecast to drop this coming Sunday and Monday with many of the lower elevations dipping down into the 30's except for far southwestern New Mexico. So a freeze may still be possible in some of these areas. The average last freeze for the southeastern plains is around April 10th.
Long range outlooks are still trending towards warmer than normal temperatures but with a better chance for rainfall over the next two weeks. We won't get drought busting rainfall but whatever does manage to fall over the state will be welcomed.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 109 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 101 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 - A low (<15%) chance of showers/storms this afternoon/evening over parts of the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau. Little to no rainfall expected. - A chance of strong to severe storms with locally heavy rain, damaging winds, and hail is possible for the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau Wednesday afternoon/evening. - Strong westerly winds forecast Wednesday, with highest winds over the Guadalupes where a High Wind Warning is in effect from 10 AM through midnight Wednesday. - Another chance of showers/storms over the eastern Permian Basin and Stockton Plateau Friday afternoon/evening. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1227 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1204 PM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026 - A mixture of wet and dry storms in western and central New Mexico today may produce erratic downburst wind gusts. Dry storms may cause new fire starts with patchy blowing dust. - Beneficial light rain and high mountain snow arrive late today and Wednesday, with precipitation favoring northern New Mexico. - Strong west winds Wednesday through Friday will create hazardous crosswinds for high profile vehicles, especially over eastern New Mexico. Increasing likelihood of critical fire weather conditions returns to eastern New Mexico Thursday and Friday. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1128 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1050 AM MDT Tue Mar 31 2026 - Isolated rain showers for southwestern New Mexico this afternoon. - Breezy conditions on Wednesday, with gusts to 40 mph in the afternoon. Better chance for rain showers in the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains. - Mild temperatures through Friday before a cold front pushes in this weekend. &&
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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