Latest Updates From The SPC.

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Severe Weather Threat Increasing!

Supercell T-Storms Should Develop Between Now And 6 PM MDT.
Large Hail - Maybe Significant In Size - Damaging T-Storm Wind Gusts,
And Perhaps A Few Tornadoes Will Be Possible.
60% Chance That A Watch May Be Issued By 5 PM MDT.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

T-Storms This Afternoon Into This Evening.

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Here's Hoping For Some Much Needed Rain.

A cold front moved through SE NM overnight. It is forecast to stall near the NM/TX state line today, and then move northward as a warm front late this afternoon and evening. Our low-level moisture was swept out of the area with the frontal passage overnight. A return surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture will push northward into the area this afternoon, as the warm front retreats back to the north.

Thunderstorms are still forecast to break out across parts of West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico later this afternoon, and may continue to roam around the area into the evening hours. Most locations across Southeastern New Mexico have a 30%-40% chance for rain today and tonight. Its been a long time since we have seen this.

Slight Risk Of Severe Thunderstorms-

Some of these thunderstorms will have the potential to become severe across the local area. They will be capable of producing large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and a few spots may see some locally heavy rainfall. As of this writing this morning, we have a 20% chance for Spotter Activation later this afternoon.

MLCape values of 2,500-3,000 j/kg are forecast to develop across SE NM and parts of W TX later this afternoon. Forecast bulk wind shear values of around 40 knots, and steep mid-level lapse rates of around 8c/km, will combine to help produce a few supercell thunderstorms along the retreating warm front.  

After today our old friend the sub-tropical summertime ridge of high pressure is forecast to strengthen across the area. A few high based and mostly dry thunderstorms will form across the area into the end of the work week. These best chances of this happening will be over and near the mountains. These storms will produce more lightning strikes and dry micro-bursts than badly needed rainfall. 

Some of us may end up getting a decent rain out of this afternoons and evenings crop of thunderstorms. But don't get your hopes up too high, it will not be widespread enough to end the drought. Hopefully we will get a break by around the 4th of July when our annual summer Monsoon kicks in. 

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Our Chances For T-Storms Still Looking Good.

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Surface Cold Front Will Have Pushed Through Most Of
SE NM By Around Midnight Tonight.
Cold Front At Sunrise Tue Morning.
Cold Front At Noontime Tue.
Warm Front Retreats Northward By Around Sunset Tue.

Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight.

I have to admit that I am excited about our prospects of finally getting some rain (in the form of t-storms) tomorrow. The last eight months have been miserable to say the least. I have sucked down so much dust into my lungs that I am amazed that they continue to work. Like most of you I am sick and tired of the hot, dry, southwesterly winds, and the extreme drought conditions that continue to plague Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas. To say that it is dry is the understatement of the year.

Some short term relief (hopefully) is coming in the form of scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. A cold front is forecast to enter the area later tonight...and will stall somewhere near the state line tomorrow  By late tomorrow afternoon it is forecast to back northward as a warm front.

Low-level southeasterly moist upslope flow will infiltrate the local area behind the front tonight and tomorrow. This combined with an approaching upper-level disturbance, and the retreating warm front will combine to help produce our expected crop of thunderstorms.

The dryline at 7:00 PM MDT, was located just west of an Andrews-Midland line, and will back westward into Southeastern New Mexico tonight. Like last night, our dew point temperatures (and relative humidity values) will jump up dramatically once it arrives. My dew point temperature rose from 15F to 61F in an hours time last night with its arrival.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to break out across the area tomorrow. Some of these may become severe and produce large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and in a few spots...locally heavy rainfall.

The good news is that some, if not most of us, should see some rainfall by late tomorrow night. Sadly, it will not be enough to break the drought. But we will take anything we can get right?

A few thunderstorms may roam the countryside Wednesday into Friday. But it looks like that these will be more of the dry type thunderstorms that produce more lightning and gusty winds than rainfall.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Finally...A Chance For Some Rain!

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Finally....Maybe Some Rain On The Way!

Today-

For the first time since last fall, the dryline backed westward into Eddy County late last night. It has already started mixing eastward this morning, and will be draped across West Texas this afternoon. Once again it will back westward into Southeastern New Mexico tonight.

A Pacific cold front is forecast to move into the area late tonight and into tomorrow morning. Subtle short wave troughs of low pressure, are forecast to move across the area today into the middle of the work week from the southwest.

Low-level moist southeasterly upslope flow, will increase across the area tonight into Tuesday. The cold front is forecast to move northward as a warm front tomorrow afternoon and evening. The dryline will be located over the area as well tomorrow.

A few thunderstorms may fire up along and east of the dryline in West Texas this afternoon. As the dryline backs westward into Southeastern New Mexico later this afternoon and early tonight, there is a slight chance that a few thunderstorms could fire up over parts of the area.

A strong cap will be in place across the area this today. The cap may break later this afternoon across West Texas. A few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms will have the potential to develop along and east of the dryline, late this afternoon into this evening if this happens. The main severe weather threats would be large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for the Guadalupe Mtn's for southwesterly winds that are forecast to become sustained at around 30-45 mph with gusts near 60 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Otero County for southwesterly winds sustained at around 25-35 mph with gusts of up to around 50-55 mph. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for all of the local area because of the Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions that continue to plague the area.

Better Chance For T-Storms Tue-
(Some Severe)

A more widespread threat for thunderstorms will occur across all of the local area on Tuesday. In fact our chances for seeing measurable rainfall have been raised up to 40% here in Carlsbad and Hobbs, 30% in the Artesia area, and 20% in Roswell. These percentages may change today and tomorrow as new data becomes available via the forecast models.

Severe thunderstorms may break out across parts of Southeastern New Mexico and West Texas Tuesday into Tuesday evening. At this time it appears that large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall would be the primary severe weather threats. Spotter Activation may be requested Tuesday across parts of the local area.

We can only hope that this pans out considering how extremely dry it has been, and given the fact that the drought continues to worsen with time. Most of Southeastern New Mexico and parts of West Texas have not received a decent rain since last September or October.

With the possibility of severe weather returning to the area tomorrow, now would be a good time to review some severe weather safety tips. The Lubbock, Texas National Weather Service Office recently published this Severe Weather Safety Guide. I realize that it is intended for the folks that live in the Lubbock area, but the same severe weather safety tips also apply to the rest of West Texas and Southeastern New Mexico. Please take a look at it and share the link with your family and friends.  

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

More Hot Weather - Hot, Dry SW Winds!

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Valid At 6 PM MDT Today.
NAM Forecast Surface Based Cape Values
Valid At 6 PM MDT Today.
NAM Forecast CIN Values Valid At 6 PM MDT Today.

Today's SPC Severe Weather Outlook.

Today's SPC Fire Weather Outlook.

More Hot Dry Windy Weather For SE NM!

West Texas-

The dryline will is draped across the Permian Basin of West Texas this morning. Dew point temperatures along and east of the dryline are in the 60's. An upper-level low is slowly dropping southward out of the Great Basin.

Surface based cape values are forecast to range from 2,000-3,000 j/kg along and east of the dryliine this afternoon and evening across the Permian Basin. Bulk wind shear values are forecast at around 50 knots, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. However, there will be a fairly stout cap in place across the area. This may inhibit thunderstorms from developing across the area this afternoon and evening.

Early indications are that a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible along and east of the dryline this afternoon and evening. Mainly across the Western Rolling Plains, the Permian Basin, and the Trans Pecos Region of West Texas. A few of these may become severe (high based supercells) and produce large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts.

SE NM-

With the dryline draped across the Permian Basin, we can look forward to another hot, dry, windy day here in SE NM today. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for all of the local area today due to the Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions that continue to plague us.

Southwesterly winds are forecast to gust up into the neighborhood of 35-45 mph once again this afternoon today. Combine this with single digit relative humidity values, and afternoon high temps ranging from 100-105, and we can look forward to another day of blast furnace weather. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Chaves, Lincoln, and Otero Counties.

Severe T-Storms SE NM & W TX Tue-

As the upper-level storm to our northwest gets a little closer to the state, and the dryline backs westward into SE NM Monday night, we may actually have a shot at seeing a few scattered thunderstorms break out over the local area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some of these could be severe as well. More on this in tomorrows update.


Friday May 27, 2011

Portales Climate 99 tied the record of 99 on 5-27-1951.
Roswell Arpt 102 tied the record of 102 on 5-27-1958.
Carlsbad Arpt 105 beat the previous record of 104 set on 5-27-1951.

Saturday May 28, 2011

Elk Climate 93 tied the previous record of 93 on 5-28-1974.
Roswell Arpt 105 beat the previous record of 101 on 5-28-1951.
Carlsbad Arpt 105 beat the previous record of 103 on 5-28-1998.
Carlsbad Climate 104 beat the previous record of 102 set on 5-28-1945.
Carlsbad Caverns Climate 103 beat the previous record of 99 on 5-28-2001.

New Daily Highest Min Temperatures-

Friday May 27, 2011

Capitan Climate 63 beat the previous record of 54 on 5-27-1990.
Ruidoso 55 beat the previous record of 52 on 5-27-2001.
Elk Climate 60 beat the previous record of 57 on 5-27-1984.

Saturday May 28, 2011

Ruidoso Climate 51 beat the previous record of 50 on 5-28-1947.
Carlsbad Arpt 71 ties the previous record of 71 on 5-28-2001.
Carlsbad Climate 69 beat the previous record of 68 on 5-28-2000.
Carlsbad Caverns Climate 81 beats the previous record of 72 on 5-28-1972.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

Yesterday's Highs - This Mornings Lows.


Location
High Yesterday
Low This Morning
Chaves Co





Roswell Arpt
102
68
8-Mile Draw Raws
103
63
Dunken Raws
97
65



Eddy County
High Yesterday
Low This Morning



Artesia Arpt
102
68
2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad
104
77
Carlsbad Arpt
105
73
Carlsbad Climate
104
69
Carlsbad Caverns Climate
103
81
Bat Draw Raws
99
81
Caprock Raws
103
70
Queen Raws
90
67



Lea Co
High Yesterday
Low This Morning



Tatum Climate
99
61
Hobbs Arpt
100
68
Hobbs-KF5KMC
105
68
Paduca Raws
105
66
Jal Climate
104
55



Lincoln Co
High Yesterday
Low This Morning



Ruidoso Climate
86
M
Sierra Blanca Regional Arpt
84
57
Smokey Bear Raws
85
58



Otero Co
High Yesterday
Low This Morning



Cloudcroft Climate
78
M
Dry Canyon
79
47
High Roll
83
62
Mayhill Raws
88
58
Sacramento Peak
77
54
Timberon
85
63
Weed-Dark Ridge Observatory
90
61



Culberson Co
High Yesterday
Low This Morning



Dog Canyon Raws
88
71
Guadalupe Pass, TX
94
64
McKittrick Canyon Raws
94
76
Pinery Raws
91
77


The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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