ECMWF Looking A Little More Interesting.


This Mornings 12Z ECMWF Forecasts.

ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Saturday, December 21, 2013.

ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Sunday, December 22, 2013.

ECMWF Total Precipitation Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday, December 23, 2013.

ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday, December 23, 2013.

Often the European (ECMWF) model is the favored forecast model by many during winter events. Historically its had a better track record with winter storms than the U.S. GFS model, most of the time anyway but not always. This does not mean that its always right though. I'm not totally convinced that its latest forecasts from this morning are correct either. Having said this I still feel this model has a closer handle on our impending storm.

This mornings run has backed off on the amount of rain its forecasting over southeastern New Mexico. Now its showing up to around a foot of snow across the higher elevations of the Sacramento mountains. Cloudcroft and Ski Apache could possibly see a foot of snow if this forecast pans out.

Unless the 500 millibar closed low slows down once it bottoms out to our southwest over northern Mexico, it does not appear at this time anyway that the colder air would make into our local area to change the rain over to snow. This mornings run has our local temps in the 40's by around noontime on Sunday. 

I still expect to see the models re-adjust over the next couple of days so keep checking back for the latest.

First Look At Our Christmas WX.

ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Christmas Morning.

Could another winter storm possibly be digging southward towards New Mexico by Christmas? Maybe.

If you like these graphics then consider signing up with WeatherBell Analytics. That is where I get them. The cost per month is reasonable and I argue that they have the best graphics on the market. These are courtesy of Dr. Ryan Maue who designs them. Follow Dr. Maue and Meteorologists Joe Bastardi via-


The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction! 

 My Web Page Is Best Viewed With Google Chrome.

Comments

Current Watches In Effect

Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

SPC Mesoscale Discussions

Current NWS National Watches/Warnings In Effect

Current NWS National Watches/Warnings In Effect
Click On The Map For The Latest Updates

New Mexico

Chaves County Plains & Mtn's

Eddy County

Guadalupe Mtns In Culberson County

Lea County

Lincoln County

Otero County

NWS Regional Radar

NWS Regional Radar

GOES-East - Sector view: Southern Rockies - GEOColor

Current US Temps

Current US Wind Chill/Heat Index Temperatures

NWS Midland Radar

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

NWS Midland Regional Forecast

Cannon AFB Radar

NWS Albuquerque Radar

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Regional Forecast

Holloman AFB Radar

NWS El Paso Radar

NWS El Paso Regional Forecast

NWS Lubbock Radar

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecast.

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecast

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecasts

NWS Lubbock Regional Forecast

NWS Forecast High Temps Today

NWS Forecast Low Temps Tonight

24-Hour Minimum Wind Chill Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Snowfall Forecast

NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

NWS Midland Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

NWS El Paso Storm Total Rainfall Forecast

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures & Rainfall

Average Daily High/Low Temperatures & Rainfall