ECMWF Looking A Little More Interesting.


This Mornings 12Z ECMWF Forecasts.

ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Saturday, December 21, 2013.

ECMWF Temperature Forecast.
Valid @ 11 AM MST Sunday, December 22, 2013.

ECMWF Total Precipitation Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday, December 23, 2013.

ECMWF Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Monday, December 23, 2013.

Often the European (ECMWF) model is the favored forecast model by many during winter events. Historically its had a better track record with winter storms than the U.S. GFS model, most of the time anyway but not always. This does not mean that its always right though. I'm not totally convinced that its latest forecasts from this morning are correct either. Having said this I still feel this model has a closer handle on our impending storm.

This mornings run has backed off on the amount of rain its forecasting over southeastern New Mexico. Now its showing up to around a foot of snow across the higher elevations of the Sacramento mountains. Cloudcroft and Ski Apache could possibly see a foot of snow if this forecast pans out.

Unless the 500 millibar closed low slows down once it bottoms out to our southwest over northern Mexico, it does not appear at this time anyway that the colder air would make into our local area to change the rain over to snow. This mornings run has our local temps in the 40's by around noontime on Sunday. 

I still expect to see the models re-adjust over the next couple of days so keep checking back for the latest.

First Look At Our Christmas WX.

ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Christmas Morning.

Could another winter storm possibly be digging southward towards New Mexico by Christmas? Maybe.

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