Still Looks Like Some Decent Lowland Rains & Heavy Mtn Snows.
This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 5 AM MST Saturday, December 21, 2013.
This mornings models are all fairly close in agreeing that our inbound winter storm will be located over the south-central mountains or southeastern New Mexico by sunrise Saturday morning. The closed upper-level low will then begin to open up and pull off to the northeast.
This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Max Temp Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, December 21, 2013.
With the coldest air not arriving until Saturday night, and by then the storm will mostly have departed the local area, we are looking for our high temps on Saturday to climb up into the 50's. Thus rain instead of snow is going to be the primary type of precipitation for the southeastern plains and most of west Texas.
This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST WRF/NAM Total Snowfall Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, December 21, 2013.
A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for the Sacramento mountains beginning Friday morning and continuing into Saturday afternoon. Heavy snows are now forecast, and the higher elevations in the Rudioso area above 8,000' could see storm total snowfall amounts of greater than 10". In the Cloudcroft area 3" - 6" are forecast above 6,000'.
This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF Total Precipitation Forecast.
Valid @ 5 PM MST Saturday, December 21, 2013.
Widespread rainfall is currently being forecast for the local area with this storm. Rain and rain showers will break out over the southeastern plains on Friday, and continue into Saturday morning before ending later in the day. There is a reasonable chance that rainfall totals in some locations will range from .50" to 1.00". A few isolated spots may even exceed 1.00". A few rumbles of thunder will also be possible.
Current thinking is that the snow level in the Sacramento's will only drop down to as low as 6,000' or so by late Friday night into Saturday morning. It may be a little higher in the Guadalupe mountains.
As the storm pulls away for the area Saturday afternoon it looks like it may get a little on the windy side.
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