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A Couple Of Severe Thunderstorms Over SW New Mexico @ 4:23 PM MDT.



18Z/Noon MDT GFS 500 MB Analysis Today.

NAM/WRF Total Rainfall Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MDT Saturday.













Mid-level disturbances and lift associated with and ejection out of a storm located west of California will react to a moisting atmosphere over the area tonight into Saturday. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase throughout the night locally. 

Already a couple of severe thunderstorms have popped up over southwestern New Mexico. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening. These storms may produce hail, strong thunderstorm wind gusts near 60 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. A few locations may end up with storm total rainfall amounts of 1"-2" by Saturday evening. Thunderstorms will taper off by Saturday evening.

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2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM 24-Hour Temp Graph

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