A Few Got Wet Most Didn't - More Wind/Blowing Dust/Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions!
West Of Hobbs, New Mexico.
A Few Got Wet Most Didn't.
What was surprising about our first rainfall event in quite some time (January) was that the Sacramento mountains ended up getting rain more than the southeastern plains, which for the most part got nothing over the past two days. At least somebody got wet right.
Radar also showed scattered thunderstorms dropped moderate to heavy rainfall northeast to southeast of El Paso, east of Roswell, and north of Tularosa. Some of these totals were in the .50" to 1.00" range. No severe thunderstorms developed over the southeastern plains either.
(AS Of 7 AM MDT Friday, March 28, 2025).
(As Of 7 PM MDT Thursday, March 27, 2025).
(As Of 7 AM MDT Friday, March 28, 2025).
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 937 AM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS FROM YESTERDAY... Location Speed Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Bernalillo County... Albuquerque Intl Sunport 39 MPH 0656 PM 03/27 ...Cibola County... Grants-Milan Airport 35 MPH 0355 PM 03/27 ...Colfax County... I-25 @ Raton Pass (NMDOT) 39 MPH 0830 PM 03/27 Fws R2 Port No. 1 35 MPH 0615 PM 03/27 ...Harding County... Solano 3.8 NE 38 MPH 0545 PM 03/27 Mills 4 WSW (Mills Canyon) 35 MPH 0405 PM 03/27 ...Lincoln County... Shist (WSMR) 41 MPH 0325 PM 03/27 ...Los Alamos County... Los Alamos Airport 40 MPH 0232 PM 03/27 Los Alamos 5 SSW (LANL4) 39 MPH 1245 AM 03/28 Los Alamos 3 ESE (LANL5) 35 MPH 1245 AM 03/28 ...San Miguel County... Las Vegas Muni Airport 43 MPH 0226 PM 03/27 ...Sandoval County... Bernalillo 3 E 38 MPH 0730 PM 03/27 ...Socorro County... Mine (WSMR) 38 MPH 0320 PM 03/27 Socorro Airport 38 MPH 0455 PM 03/27 Contreras 1 ESE (Sevilleta) 38 MPH 0611 PM 03/27 Stallion WIT (WSMR) 37 MPH 0450 PM 03/27 Veguita 37 MPH 0552 PM 03/27 ...Torrance County... Clines Corners 1 SSE 40 MPH 0537 PM 03/27 ...Union County... Clayton Muni Airpark 60 MPH 0720 PM 03/27 Clayton LRC 50 MPH 0730 PM 03/27 ...Valencia County... Belen Regional Airport 35 MPH 0615 PM 03/27 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS FROM YESTERDAY... Location Amount Time/Date ...New Mexico... ...Catron County... Beaverhead 0.01 in 0908 AM 03/28 ...Harding County... Mills 4 WSW (Mills Canyon) 0.03 in 0905 AM 03/28 ...Lincoln County... Roswell No. 2 Portable 0.41 in 0920 AM 03/28 Capitan 5.5 NE 0.18 in 0700 AM 03/28 Nogal 4.6 SSE 0.13 in 0700 AM 03/28 Bonito Lake 5.4 SW 0.08 in 0920 AM 03/28 Capitan 4.3 WSW 0.07 in 0700 AM 03/28 Ruidoso 1 NNW (Smokey Bear) 0.02 in 0900 AM 03/28 ...Los Alamos County... Los Alamos 0.8 S 0.03 in 0700 AM 03/28 Los Alamos 2 E 0.02 in 0925 AM 03/28 Los Alamos 2 ENE 0.01 in 0927 AM 03/28 Los Alamos 1 NNE 0.01 in 0930 AM 03/28 ...Rio Arriba County... Chama 2 N 0.03 in 0900 AM 03/28 ...San Juan County... Chaco Culture NHP 0.11 in 0830 AM 03/28 ...San Miguel County... Las Vegas 0.09 in 0700 AM 03/28 Rociada 0.02 in 0930 AM 03/28 ...Socorro County... Carrizozo 15 NW (Chupadera) 0.11 in 0839 AM 03/28 Magdalena 2.4 SSE 0.07 in 0700 AM 03/28 Magdalena 28.1 WSW 0.02 in 0700 AM 03/28 ...Union County... Clayton 12.4 SSW 0.40 in 0700 AM 03/28 Clayton 14.6 SSW 0.25 in 0700 AM 03/28 Clayton 32.9 SW 0.14 in 0700 AM 03/28 Clayton 1.1 W 0.03 in 0900 AM 03/28 &&
Next High Wind/Blowing Dust/Critically Dangers Fie Weather Event!
(Next Tuesday & Wednesday?)
National Blend Of Models Precipitation & Snowfall Forecasts.
Valid At 6 PM MDT on Sunday, April 6, 2025.
This morning's runs of the computer forecast models are the bearer of more bad news. A fast-moving shortwave trough of low pressure in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere will zip across central and northern New Mexico on Saturday and Sunday. This will kick up the winds across the state along with localized areas of blowing dust.
A High Wind Watch is in effect on Saturday for the Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County and Culberson County in West Texas. West winds sustained at 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to around 60 mph.
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in effect for many areas of the state on Saturday. A more widespread and significant fire weather threat will occur over the area on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Forecast model uncertainty exists this morning so the exact track, strength, and speed of the next deep mid-level 500 millibar (18,000' MSL) low to sweep over the region early next week is up in the air. This morning's run of the Canadian model puts the center of the mid-level low over Kansas Wednesday morning...531 decameters. The GFS is also as low but further north with the center of the low in western South Dakota. The ECMWF is close to the GFS but not as deep or strong.
All three deterministic models then split the low with a deeper, colder, and stronger segment forming over the Great Basin or southern Rockies from next Wednesday into the weekend. Confusion reigns this far out but for now, what is clear is that we will faced with another high wind/blowing dust/critically dangerous fire weather event to start next week off. How strong or bad this will be is unknown this morning.
The first week of April looks like it will be stormy with snow possibly heavy returning to the western, central, and northern mountains. Maybe even the northeastern plains.
This is the time of year that we will need to watch the eastern one-half of the state for the development and placement of the dryline and severe thunderstorms. That may be in the cards next week also.
Keep up to date next week and be weather-aware as much will change in our local forecasts.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 1051 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1047 AM CDT Fri Mar 28 2025 - Above normal temperatures, increased westerly winds, very low relative humidity, and ongoing extreme fire danger will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions across portions of our region through the weekend and again Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. - Strong westerly winds will be possible at times in the Guadalupe and Delaware mountains through the weekend. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1156 AM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1156 AM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025 - Breezy to windy conditions are forecast today and each day onward. The windiest days are forecast to occur on Saturday and Tuesday. A risk of damaging wind gusts and areas of reduced visibility in blowing dust will increase on Tuesday. - In addition to the gusty conditions, mostly dry conditions and low humidity will lead to elevated or critical fire weather each day. This will increase the risk of rapid fire spread. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 256 AM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025 Winds will strengthen today, staying breezy to windy each day thereafter while mostly dry conditions persist. Winds will be notably stronger on Saturday and especially on Tuesday of next week when gusts could even produce damage along with areas of blowing dust. Each afternoon, there will be a risk of rapid fire spread and growth due to the gusty conditions and low humidity. Temperatures will be well above normal today, but will tend to stay within a few degrees of normal for the following several days. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1129 AM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1120 AM MDT Fri Mar 28 2025 - Warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions expected through the period. - Windy and near-critical to critical fire conditions return to the forecast on Friday through Sunday. - Above average temperatures will persist through the weekend and into next week. &&
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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