Slight Chance For Widely Scattered T-Storms Wednesday Into Thursday.
Atoka 5 Miles South Of Artesia, NM.
Blowing Dust/Sand From The March 18th High Wind Event.
This Is Not Normal - High Winds Combined With The Ongoing Drought Have Nearly Buried This Fence With Drifts 3-4' High.
(Wednesday Night - Friday Morning).
Slight Chance For T-Storms Wednesday - Thursday.
A lot of attention is being generated for the possibility of scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms occurring over the area Wednesday into Thursday night. But honestly, I'm not all that optimistic.
A weak mid-level trough of low pressure is forecast to swing eastward across northern Mexico and southern New Mexico and into West Texas by Thursday. Enough lift and marginal low-level moisture from the Gulf of America are forecast to accompany this approaching system to generate widely scattered rain showers and a few thunderstorms.
Some of these thunderstorms will be high-based and of the mostly dry type producing dry lightning strikes, erratic gusty winds, virga, and or light rain showers. This may be a problem in the mountains. These dry thunderstormstorms will aggravate the existing high fire danger. Stage 1 Fire Restrictions are already in place across the Lincoln National Forest. Dry lightning strikes could potentially start new fires.
Atmospheric lift, instability, and limited low-level moisture may be enough to produce a few marginally severe thunderstorms across a few locations in southeastern New Mexico and West Texas on Wednesday and Thursday. But overall a widespread severe weather outbreak is not currently anticipated.
Overall the southeastern plains and West Texas stand the best chances of getting wet Wednesday into Thursday night. Current forecast model trends indicate that generally less than a quarter of an inch of rain will fall in Chaves, Eddy, Lea, Otero, and Culberson Counties. A few of the stronger thunderstorms could possibly produce up to a quarter to one-half of an inch of rainfall.
Our next windbag and blowing dust generator arrives late this week into the upcoming weekend. Currently, it does not appear to be nearly as strong as the last three high-wind events we've suffered through this month. The fire danger will once again be problematic late this week into the weekend.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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