Significant Widespread High-Wind/Blowing Dust Event Today Into Tuesday - Extremely Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions!
Rio Felix Normally Dry Arroyo.
US Hwy 285 Bridge Crossing (Southern Chaves County).
Flash Flooding on the normally dry Rio Felix Arroyo on October 19, 2024, damaged the bridge on US Hwy 285 between Roswell and Artesia. Resulting in its closure for repairs. The flood waters overtopped the bridge and nearly doubled the width of the arroyo at this location. As far as I know, this is the first time flood waters overtopped the bridge and damaged it, and I am in my 60s and have lived in SE NM all of my life except for when I was in the Navy.
Significant High Wind/Blowing Dust/ Event Today Into Tuesday!
Extremely Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Threat Today!
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid intensification of a surface low over the central High Plains. During the afternoon, a dryline will advance eastward across the southern High Plains, with very strong winds and low RH overspreading dry fuels in the post-dryline environment, supporting dangerous, rapid wildfire-spread potential. Surface west-southwesterly winds will exceed 20 mph and coincide with 15-20 percent RH on a widespread basis across much of the southern High Plains, with Elevated and Critical highlights maintained. There is persistence among the consensus in model guidance in showing 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 5-10 percent RH across portions of eastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. Given near critically dry fuels, the aforementioned meteorological conditions may support extreme wildfire behavior/spread, warranting the continuance of Extremely Critical highlights. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
Over Sirrea Blanca Peak - West Of Ruidoso, NM At Sunrise This Morning.
NWS NDFD Peak Wind Gust Swatch Forecast.
NWS Albuquerque Storm Total Snowfall Forecast.
NWS Albuquerque Winter Impacts Forecast.
Extremely Critically Dangerous Fire Weather Conditions!
March, like many of you, is my least favorite month of the year. It is normally our windiest and driest month of the year. Dust storms can be common, and high-wind events can be damaging. And rainfall is hard to come by. Such will be the case today into Tuesday night.
Peak wind gusts recorded yesterday include:
The Bowl Raws North Of Guadalupe Peak 76 mph.
The Bowl Raws North Of Guadalupe Peak 76 mph.
Salinas Peak - White Sands Missle Range 72 mph.
Main Post White Sands Missile Range 65 mph.
A Personal Weather Station (PWS) west-northwest of Jal 62 mph.
West Texas Mesonet Stn Pine Spring 59 mph.
Carlsbad Caverns West Texas Mesonet Stn 58 mph.
Pinery Raws Guadalupe Mtn's Natl Park 56 mph.
Carlsbad Airport ASOS 55 mph.
Nogal NMCC 53 mph.
Roswell Airport ASOS 51 mph.
As a strong mid-upper level closed low continues to deepen and swing across the state today into Wednesday, a strong surface low will deepen across eastern Colorado. The GFS model forecasts this low to drop to 986 millibars or 29.12 inches of mercury. Thus a tight surface pressure gradient will develop southward from the low into eastern New Mexico and southward into Mexico.
Aloft a jet stream wind speed max will swing around the base of the closed low today into Tuesday. These winds at the 189,000' MSL will be in the 100 to 115 knot range (115 to 130 mph). Strong daytime heating, a tight surface pressure gradient, and strong mixing of the atmosphere aloft will all combine to produce a widespread and significant high wind event for the area today into Tuesday night. Tuesday's winds may be stronger than today's.
Heads up Eddy County and the rest of SE NM, Southern NM, the Guadalupe, Sacramento, Capitan and Davis/Delaware Mountains, and West Texas.
A SIGNIFICANT HIGH WIND AND BLOWING DUST EVENT IS SHAPING UP TODAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING!
WEST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 30 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR EDDY AND CULBERSON COUNTIES.
ROAD CLOSURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN BLINDING DUST STORMS THAT WILL PRODUCE ZERO VISIBILITIES WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING!
SMOKE FROM ANY WILDFIRE OR FOREST FIRE COULD COMBINE WITH THE BLOWING DUST TO CREATE AN ADDITIONAL HAZARD ON LOCAL ROADS AND HIGHWAYS.
POWER LINES, UTILITY LINES, TREES, FENCES, AND FARM IRIGATION SPRINKLERS SYSTEMS MAY BE BLOWN DOWN AND DAMAGED. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.
ROOF DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO HOMES, BARNS, AND OTHER OUTBULDINGS. SOME WEST-FACING WINDOWS MAY BE BLOWN OUT.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH! WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO EXCEED 85 MPH IN GUADALUPE PASS!
EXTREMELY CRITICALLY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER SE NM, THE GUADALUPE, SACRAMENTO, AND CAPITAN MTN'S, AS WELL AS EASTERN NM, AND FROM ROUGHLY EL PASO NORTHEASTWARD TO TUCUMCARI AND EASTWARD TO THE NM/TX STATE LINE.
PLEASE REFRAIN FROM ALL OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT INVOLVE THE USE OF SPARKS OR FLAMES. ANY WILDFIRE OR FOREST FIRE THAT STARTS WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD IN THE HIGH WINDS AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS! FIRES MAY BE IMPOSDIBLE TO CONTAIN DURING THE STRONGEST GUSTS.
Numerous High Wind Watches and Warnings, Wind Advisories, Blowding Dust Advisories, Red Flag Warnings, and Fire Weather Watches remain in effect today through Tuesday for much of New Mexico. Please click on this link to view them or visit my weather web page or your local National Weather Service Forecast Office to read the latest updates.
Near Blizzard conditions are forecast for the Johnson and Barltett Mesas, Raton Pass, and Union County in northeastern New Mexico from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon. Up to 3" of snow along with 70 mph wind gusts will create near blizzard conditions in these areas. Blowing and drifting snow and whiteout conditions may close local roads and highways.
Some of the higher elevations of the northern mountains may see 4" to 8" of new snowfall by Wednesday, with the lower elevations a trace up to 3" in some locations of western and northern New Mexico.
NWS Outlooks.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 505 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 504 AM CST Mon Mar 3 2025 - Another strong weather system enters the region later this afternoon. Widespread very strong westerly winds are expected across the entire region through Tuesday evening. Blowing dust may be hazardous to drivers. Critical to extreme fire weather will accompany these stronger winds. - Increasing winds return on Thursday, mainly across western portions of the area. - Another strong weather system moves across the region Friday into Saturday. Widespread strong westerly winds are anticipated. Patchy blowing dust may be present and hazardous to travelers. Fire weather may also be a concern for much of the region. &&
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 525 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 503 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025 - Fire Weather: Rapid spread of any fires in central and eastern New Mexico today due to critical to extreme fire weather conditions. Strong winds stick around Tuesday, but a slight increase in moisture will produce only near-critical fire weather conditions across southern areas. - Strong Winds and Blowing Dust: Strong to damaging winds will create areas of blowing dust that may reduce visibility on roadways, including in Roswell on Monday and Tuesday. - Winter Weather: Snow and blowing snow may create difficult travel in far northeastern NM Tuesday morning, with potential for blizzard conditions between Raton Pass and Clayton. Light snow on mountain routes will create minor impacts. - Outlook: Confidence is increasing in another round of strong winds and critical fire weather in central and eastern areas Thursday. A colder and wetter Pacific storm may bring more precipitation late Friday, with snow level lowering. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025 A Pacific storm system will bring strong to potentially damaging winds to eastern and portions of central NM today, along with areas of blowing dust. Strong winds will continue overnight and Tuesday, especially across eastern NM. A round of snow will combine with the strong winds to produce blizzard conditions across far northeast NM Tuesday morning. Expect a break on Wednesday, followed by more strong to potentially damaging winds and blowing dust on Thursday when another Pacific storm system approaches. This system will bring snow to the northern and western mountains, followed by another round that may focus further south across the area Friday night. More tranquil and warmer conditions are forecast by Sunday, with much less wind. &&
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 440 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 230 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025 - Very windy with blowing dust this afternoon. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect for all of south- central New Mexico and far west Texas. Low visibility due to dust and strong winds will make travel hazardous. Strong winds will remain in place through Tuesday. - Extremely Critical fire danger today due to dry conditions and strong winds. Red Flag Warnings are in effect area wide. - More strong winds on the way Thursday and Friday.
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 413 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025 NMZ227-230-032200- /O.NEW.KABQ.WS.A.0003.250304T1000Z-250305T0000Z/ Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-Union County- 413 AM MST Mon Mar 3 2025 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions possible. Total snow accumulations up to three inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 70 mph. * WHERE...Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass and Union County. * WHEN...From late tonight through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on snow packed or icy roads and possible white-out conditions, making travel dangerous to impossible. This includes portions of I-25 through Raton Pass and US 87 through Capulin and Des Moines to Clayton. Very strong winds could cause extensive damage to trees and power lines. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare for possible blizzard conditions. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ 11
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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