Winter Storm Impacts The Region Monday Into Tuesday Night
Sierra Blanca Peak.
US Hwy 70 East Of Mescalero Looking Northwest.
ECMWF Regional Snowfall Forecast.
ECMWF New Mexico Snowfall Forecast.
Valid Monday Afternoon Through 5 PM MST Tuesday.
NWS NDFD Snowfall Forecast.
NWS ALBuquerque Snowfall Forecast.
NWS El Paso Snowfall Forecast.
Winter Storm Impacts The Region Monday Into Tuesday Night
Some of the computer forecast models are trending towards slowing our next inbound winter storm down, while holding it back further west, and south of us than previous runs. Should this trend continue then I think we will see more widespread, and heavier snowfall totals than what the models are currently forecasting as of this Sunday afternoon.
Winter Storm Watches are now in effect for the Central Highlands, Eastern Lincoln County, South Central Highlands, the Eastern Plains, and southwest Chaves County from Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Snowfall totals are forecast to be in the 3" to 5" range with isolated totals of 8" possible.
A Winter Weather Advisory are in effect for the rest of Lincoln County from 6 PM MST Monday through Noon MST Tuesday. Snowfall totals are forecast to be in the 3" to 9" range with 8" to 12" above 8,500'.
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the southern Sacramento Mountains including the Sunspot, Timberon, Cloudcroft,16 Springs Canyon, Mayhill, Sacramento/Weed, Pinon, and Silver Lake areas from 5 PM MST Monday through Noon MST Tuesday. Snowfall totals of 3" to 5" are forecast.
A Winter Storm Watch is also in effect over the South Plains of West Texas including the Lubbock area from Monday evening through Tuesday evening. Snowfall totals of 4" or more will be possible.
As of this Sunday afternoon (4:45 PM MST) there are not watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for Chaves (except for SW Chaves County) Eddy, and Lea Counties. This may change on Monday depending upon new model forecast info.
With a strong surface low developing over northwestern Mexico a strong surface pressure gradient will setup over the area Monday into Tuesday morning. A Pacific cold front will move eastward across the region Monday afternoon and evening. Strong northerly winds will shift around to the east and southeast with sustained speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph. This will cause areas of blowing and drifting snow in the mountains and across the lower elevations of the plains if heavy snow develops. Travel will become difficult and dangerous in these areas Monday night into Wednesday morning.
Low-level easterly upslope flow will increase adding additional surface moisture to fuel the formation of rain and snow. Rain is forecast to change over to snow late Monday afternoon and evening. Current National Weather Service forecasts (as of 4:45 PM MST Sunday afternoon) are calling for snowfall accumulations in northern Lea County of 1" to 2" as well as in the Guadalupe Mountains. The Artesia area may see a half of an inch of snow. Less than an inch is forecast for the Carlsbad, and Hobbs, and Jal areas. The Roswell area may get 1.0" to 1.5" or so. Again this could possible change. Additional updates on this developing winter storm will be posted on Monday.
Low-level easterly upslope flow will increase adding additional surface moisture to fuel the formation of rain and snow. Rain is forecast to change over to snow late Monday afternoon and evening. Current National Weather Service forecasts (as of 4:45 PM MST Sunday afternoon) are calling for snowfall accumulations in northern Lea County of 1" to 2" as well as in the Guadalupe Mountains. The Artesia area may see a half of an inch of snow. Less than an inch is forecast for the Carlsbad, and Hobbs, and Jal areas. The Roswell area may get 1.0" to 1.5" or so. Again this could possible change. Additional updates on this developing winter storm will be posted on Monday.
There Are None So Blind As Those Who "Will - Not" To See...107.
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