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Outlook This Week.
Strong Cold Front Arrives Wed Or Thu.
Forecast High Temps Thursday.
NWS HPC 5-Day Total Rainfall Forecast.
(Valid 6 PM Sun - 6 PM MDT Friday.)
Best Chances For Widespread Heavy Rainfall All Year.
Big changes are coming this week to our local weather. Several factors are coming together to produce the best chances for significant widespread rainfall, some of which may be very heavy, and much cooler temperatures across SE NM and parts of W TX.
A strong early fall cold front will arrive in the area sometime on Wednesday, and then push very slowly southward into Thursday. Our afternoon high temps will be in the mid-upper 90's today and tomorrow, and near 90 on Wednesday. With the frontal passage, we will see our highs cool down into the 70's Thursday, and possibly Friday. Northeastern and eastern New Mexico may not get out of the 60's.
As the cold front approaches from the north Wednesday afternoon, several upper level short wave troughs of low pressure will traverse overhead Wed - Fri. These disturbances will help to provide lift, instability, and mid-level moisture to the area.
First Severe Weather Outbreak Of The Yr In Parts Of SE NM.
Some of these t-storms will have the potential to become severe across SE NM, and parts of W TX Wednesday into Thursday.They will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.
With a surface cold front draped across the area on Thursday, along with the dry line intersecting it, and a surface low over SE NM, we may have a triple point setup across SE NM. This would enhance the potential for rotating supercell t-storms, which could increase the threat for severe weather in the local area.
Although its a little too early to try to nail down the severe weather threat, I am a little concerned about the potential for a few isolated tornadoes across the area, should the right setup develop.
Flash Flooding Possible Wed - Fri.
Another concern will be the potential for very heavy rainfall accumulations Wednesday into Friday. We will need to keep a close eye on the burn scar areas across SE NM, since any heavy rainfall will very quickly produce flash flooding over, and downstream of these areas. The flash flood threat will be higher than normal locally, should heavy rainfall occur over and near these burn scar areas.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!