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Season's First High Wind Event Thursday.

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Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Nov 17, 2016.

GFS Precipitation Type Forecast.

Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Nov 17, 2016.

GFS 500 MB (18,000' MSL) Forecast.

Valid @ 5 PM MST Thursday, Nov 17, 2016. 

GFS Accumulated Snowfall Forecast.

Valid @ 5 AM MST Saturday, Nov 19, 2016.

NWS 5-Day Forecast For Roswell, NM.


A potent upper level storm depicted above at the 500 millibar or 18,000' Mean Sea Level (MSL) is still forecast by the models to dig southeastward into southern Colorado and northern New Mexico by Thursday afternoon, The latest run of the GFS model is dropping the storm a little further to the south so a little more snowfall is forecast for the northern New Mexico mountains...although at this time widespread heavy snowfall is not anticipated. 

Our first fall wind storm is still on track for Thursday as the surface pressure gradient tightens up as the stronger winds aloft mix down to the surface during peak afternoon heating. A High Wind Event looks possible for the mountains, and the eastern and northeastern plains. These areas may experience southwesterly wind gusts in excess of 60 mph.

 It will also be very windy in southeastern New Mexico with sustained winds in the 20-40 mph range with higher gusts. Localized areas of blowing dust may also develop across the state on Thursday. 

Our afternoon high temperatures are forecast to remain some 5-15 degrees above normal this week. With most of southeastern New Mexico and West Texas seeing the 70's. Thursday's afternoon highs may be above 80 degrees in a few local areas. A few record daily high temp records may be tied or broken this week.

A Pacific Cold Front will sweep eastward across the area Thursday night. With a cooler airmass in place and calm winds, and clear skies, most of southeastern New Mexico and nearby areas will see our first frost/freeze of the season Friday or Saturday morning.

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