Severe T-Storms & Heavy Rain - Is This May Or November?

Valid @ 6 PM MDT Today.

Finally a break from the unusually warm temperatures that dominated our weather for October. A cold front is forecast to enter southeastern New Mexico and West Texas late this afternoon and will continue to push slowly southward tonight. After seeing weeks of high temperatures in the 80's and 90's we will see mostly the 70's today and the 60's Thursday into the weekend. The mountains of course will be cooler with highs in the 50's and 60's. 

GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid @ 6 AM MDT Thursday, Nov 3, 2016.

Meanwhile an upper level trough of low pressure that is now digging into Arizona will form a cutoff upper level low by tonight as it settles into Northwestern Mexico just south of Yuma, Arizona. This low will remain parked over that region until Saturday when it lifts slowly northeastward towards the Four Corners.

Severe T-Storms Today & Heavy Rains.

Parts of southeastern New Mexico and West Texas will have a risk of severe thunderstorms today into early this evening as lift and instability increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary threats from any severe thunderstorm that develops. Training thunderstorms may also produce localized flash flooding especially tonight into Friday.

Storm Total Forecast Rainfall Amounts.

GFS Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MST Sunday, Nov 6, 2016.

WPC Forecast.
Valid @ 6 PM MST Tuesday, Nov 8, 2016.

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