Current Weather 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Round Two Today.

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A couple of supercell thunderstorms fired up across central Lea County,and across Presidio and Jeff Davis Counties of West Texas late yesterday afternoon and evening. Several tornado warnings were issued on the storm in Presidio County, but as far as I know, no reports of tornadoes have been received.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #409 was issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for SE NM & W TX. It was valid from 4:10 PM MDT through 10:00 PM MDT yesterday afternoon and evening. While most of the thunderstorm and severe weather was confined to Lea, Gaines, Jeff Davis, and Presidio Counties, severe thunderstorms also developed east of Dexter in Central Chaves County, and in Portales, in Roosevelt County last night. Quarter size hail (1" in diameter) was reported 15 miles north of Elida (Roosevelt Co) at 10:25 PM MDT last night.

Lea & Gaines County-

Spotters reported quarter size hail (1" in diameter) covering the ground 3 miles east of Lovington at 5:58 PM MDT.

Quarter size hail (1" in diameter) was reported 13 miles east of Lovington at 6:19 PM MDT.

 At 6:25 PM MDT spotters reported baseball (2.75" in diameter) 3 miles north of Knowles. The spotter also reported a Rear Flank Downdraft (RFD) and rotation within this storm at that time.

 And at 6:36 PM MDT spotters reported baseball size hail (2.75" in diameter) covering the ground on Hwy 182, between mile markers 10-11, 10 miles north of Hobbs.

 The storm also produced lime size hail (2.00" in diameter) in Gaines County, Texas, 3 miles southwest of Higginbotham at 7:59 PM CDT.

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Jeff Davis & Presidio Counties-

Ping pong ball size hail (1.50" in diameter) was reported 15 miles west of Marfa (Presidio Co) at 7:36 PM CDT. Half dollar size hail (1.25" in diameter) was also reported at this time in Valentine (Jeff Davis Co).

Baseball size hail (2.75" in diameter) was reported 3 miles north-northeast of Ruidosa (Presidio Co) at 9:00 PM CDT. Golfball to baseball size hail fell at the Chinati Hot Springs Restort.

Golfball size hail (1.75" in diameter) was reported in Presidio (Presidio Co) at 10:05 PM CDT.

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What Can We Expect Today-

Low-level Gulf of Mexico moisture is entrenched across Eastern and Southeastern New Mexico this morning, with the dryline backed up against the east face of the Guadalupe and Sacramento Mountains. Our dew point temperatures have risen up into the 60's, which is a far cry from the single digit and teens (producing single digit relative humidity values) that we have been experiencing lately.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and east of the dryline this afternoon and evening. Once again a few supercell thunderstorms will roam the plains of Eastern and Southeastern New Mexico.

Some of these thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts, frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning, and perhaps locally heavy rainfall in a few spots.

Spotter activation may be requested across parts of SE NM later this afternoon and evening. It appears that the best chance for severe weather will be across the northern sections of Southeastern New Mexico, and northward into the Eastern and Northeastern Plains of the state.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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Dangerous Sunspot AR3112

Dangerous Sunspot AR3112
WHEN WILL THE NEXT CME ARRIVE? A magnetic filament in the sun's southrn hemisphere erupted on Oct. 4th, hurling part of itself into space. The emerging CME will pass mostly to the south of our planet, but a fraction could graze Earth's magnetic field on Oct. 8th. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for minor geomagnetic storms and auroras on that date.

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