Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Windy Monday - Colder Tuesday.

Click On The Maps To Enlarge Them.





Sunny Skies - Warmer For The Weekend.

We start a slow warm-up today which will continue into Monday. Mid and high level clouds will clear out of the area by this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will prevail until late in the weekend when mid and high level clouds will return to the area. Our high temperatures will generally be in the 50's across the southeastern plains today. Saturday will see highs in the upper 50's to the low 60's for the most part. A few spots may be a little warmer. Sunday will see highs in the mid 60's to near 70.

Monday Will Be Warm & Windy.

Cold Front Arrives By Tuesday.
An upper-level disturbance will zip by to our north on Monday. This will cause the surface pressure gradient to tighten up as a cold front approaches the area. Monday will be warm and at least breezy, if not windy, especially across the Guadalupe Mountains.

Bitterly Cold Airmass In Northwest Canada.


Valid At 5 AM MST Tue Jan 17, 2012.

Valid At 5 AM MST Tue Jan 17, 2012.

An incredibly cold airmass continues to build across Northwestern Canada. By Tuesday morning the GFS forecast model (see maps above) is forecasting temperatures as low as -50F to -60F across this area. This is some 70-degrees below normal! As long as the flow aloft remains zonal, and the jet stream does not buckle, this airmass will not take a plunge southward towards our local area. I don't see any indications in the models at this time that this will happen.

The coldest temperatures should stay confined to the northern states next week. I am a little leery of this though. Anytime you get an airmass this cold, it tends to want to break the rules and not follow the model forecasts. Given the fact that the models haven't performed all that well this winter, I wouldn't be shocked to see a part of this bitterly cold airmass break off, and plunge south into the heart of the country. It bears watching.

The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!

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