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Blog updated at 11:12 AM MST.



My SE NM Radar Snapshot At 8:36 AM MST.

A deck of mid-level clouds (altostratus, with bases around 10,000' - 11,000' AGL) covers SE NM this morning. Looking at the "My SE NM Radar Snapshot" posted above, I would say that a few very light rain showers (more like sprinkles) or perhaps a few light snow flurries may be falling across parts of Eddy and Lea Counties. Although a quick peek out of my window reveals a lot of virga (rain or snow falling from the clouds but not reaching the ground) overhead in Carlsbad at 8:40 AM. This will dissipate later this morning.

Cloudy to partly cloudy skies will dominate today and it will be cool with our afternoon highs mostly in the 50's. A few places may only see the mid-upper 40's. Clearing skies along with a colder and drier airmass in place tonight, will allow for excellent radiational cooling to take place across SE NM. Most locations will see the teens to around 20 for low temperatures tomorrow morning.

Sunday will start the temperature climb back up into the upper 50's to the low 60's, and by Monday most of us will see highs from near 70 to the mid 70's. The same will hold true for Tuesday with perhaps a few spots getting up into the upper 70's.

Next Weeks Storm.

GFS 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Fri Feb 3, 2012.

Our next potential weather maker dives into the Four-Corners Region by the end of next week according to the GFS model forecasts. This mornings run is showing a stronger and colder storm that its previous runs over the past couple of days.

This Mornings 12Z/5 AM MST ECMWF 500 MB Forecast.
Valid At 5 AM MST Friday Feb 3, 2012.

This mornings run of the European model (ECMWF) drops a strong disturbance into southwestern New Mexico by around next Friday, and then forecasts it to become "cutoff" from the main jet stream flow to its north by next weekend. Sound familiar? It should, this has been the prevailing pattern for our storms since December here in SE NM.

Brutal Cold Continues To Grip Alaska.

While most of the US has experienced one of its mildest and uneventful (winter weather-wise) January's on record, a brutally cold polar airmass continues its grip on Alaska. Much of Alaska has experienced one its coldest and snowiest winters in years. Fairbanks is experiencing their coldest January in 40 years. Tanana is down to -60F this morning. Huslia was down to -60F yesterday morning, Bettles -55F, Galena -55F, and Tanana was -51F.

"U.S. seems to have largely escaped winter."


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