Storm #1 Arrives Midweek - #2 Next Weekend?
5-Day Precipitation Forecast.
(Today - Friday)
Fog and low clouds cover the eastern one-half of the state.
You can see the Sacramento, Capitan, and Guadalupe Mtn's
poking up through the low clouds on this image.
Blog updated at 9:39 AM MST.
Start Of The Week.
Low clouds, fog, and freezing fog, along with areas of light drizzle have blanketed southeastern New Mexico since Friday night. Today looks like a repeat of yesterday with overcast skies and dreary conditions. It will be a little warmer today with our afternoon highs forecast to be in the low 40's in the Roswell and Hobbs areas. Artesia and Carlsbad are looking at the upper 40's.
For those of you who were wondering where winter was...wonder no more, it has arrived, and by all appearances will stick around for awhile. This December definitively has the look and feel of a cold one for us so far, and this is very likely to continue. So far this December's weather looks, and feels more like what we are used to seeing with an El Nino pattern, not a La Nina pattern that we are currently experiencing. I love it.
Mid-Week Storm.
Our next winter storm to impact the state will arrive Monday through Wednesday as a slow moving, upper-level storm moves out of Arizona and into the state. Western and central New Mexico look to benefit the most from this storm. Heavy snowfall will likely fall across the mountains above about 7,000'. Some areas of the Gila in could see over 2" of rain.
A Special Weather Statement has been issued by the El Paso NWS Office concerning this next winter storm. Up to 6" of snow, maybe more in some spots, could fall over the Sacramento Mountains above 7,000' by Wednesday.
Across the lower elevations of southeastern New Mexico we can expect to see our chances for rain increase starting Monday afternoon continuing into Wednesday morning. A few t-storms will be possible across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.
A strong Pacific cold front will sweep eastward across the area on Wednesday as the upper-level storm departs the region. Strong gusty westerly winds are forecast for the area Wednesday.
Major Winter Storm Next Weekend?
Valid At 5 AM Sat Dec 17, 2011.
Valid At 5 PM Sat Dec 17, 2011.
Valid At 11 AM MST Sun Dec 18, 2011.
Valid At 11 AM MST Sun Dec 18, 2011.
Old man winter appears ready to crank up another potential Major Winter Storm for the area by next weekend. Last nights 06Z/11 PM MDT run of the GFS model, closes off a deep and strong upper-level storm off the California coast by next Thursday, and then slowly wobbles it eastward towards New Mexico into next Sunday.
The European (ECMWF) model on the other hand, closes off a deep and strong upper-level storm over the Baja Region by late next week, and keeps it parked there through next weekend.
You simply must take all of this with a huge grain of salt at this point in time. There continues to be a lot of inconsistency in the model runs, and this will likely continue into the upcoming work week. The current pattern favors another bought with winter but the details are simply not clear at this time.
A lot of people have been asking me what our Christmas weather is going to be like this year. The honest answer is I don't know yet. Its simply too far out to try and take a stab at our forecast. I may start to talk about this in about a week.
The Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction!
That initial wet Tues-Wed forecast (central, west) is encouraging...snow >7000'. We need more storms without cold, dry arctic air...rain and wet snow beneficial, 1F lows and powder-dry snow grains are not.
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