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Severe T-Storms Today - Very Large Hail & Isolated Tornadoes Possible.

Blog updated at 1:31 PM MDT.
Blog updated at 12:50 PM MDT.
Blog updated at 12:38 PM MDT.

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Cannon AFB (KFDX) GRLevel3 2.0 CR248 At 4:31 AM MDT.

50% Chance of Spotter Activation By Around 3 PM MDT.

"SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. STORMS ARE MOST FAVORED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. GOLFBALL SIZED OR LARGER HAIL...WINDS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO TO TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS."

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Mike Gibson the owner and developer of the GRLevelX software products, recently released his latest addition, the new GRLevel3 2.0 Dual Polarization software package. I am now running this new version on both my laptop and desktop computers. I continue to use the GRLevel2, and GRLevel2-AE products in support of my storm chase and Skywarn activities.


A cold front currently draped across eastern New Mexico is forecast to become stationary today. This mornings Mesoscale Convective System (MCS), or large complex of thunderstorms seen on the GRLevel3 2.0 snapshot image above will continue moving southeastward, and will dissipate later this morning. Outflow from this complex of thunderstorms will help shove the cold front to the south and into southeastern New Mexico this morning.

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to break out across the area this afternoon, and will likely continue well into tonight. A chance for additional thunderstorm activity will also exists across the local area tomorrow. It will be hot today south of the front with highs near 100. North of the front it will be slightly cooler, but muggy with highs in the 90's.

Some of these thunderstorms will be of the supercell variety, and will become severe. These severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing large to very large hail, damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, and as always frequent deadly cloud to ground lightning.

Surface based cape values of 2,000 to 3,500 j/kg are forecast across eastern and southeastern New Mexico, as well as across parts of west Texas by this afternoon. Surface dew point temperatures are already hovering around the 60-65 degree range this morning, so a very hot and unstable airmass will be in place across the area today. Bulk wind shear values of 40-60 knots are also forecast, so this afternoons crop of supercell thunderstorms will be capable of producing some very large hail. Some of these storms may produce hail of up to the size of golf balls to baseballs, perhaps even larger in a few of the strongest storms.

A few isolated tornadoes will also be possible across the local area with any supercell thunderstorm that becomes surface based, and rooted along the frontal boundary. LCL vales are forecast to lower by around sunset this evening, and this combined with the strengthening low level jet by this time will further promote the possibility of tornadoes.

Locally heavy rainfall will produce localized flash flooding with the stronger thunderstorms today into tonight. Rainfall rates with some of these stronger storms may exceed 1" - 2" per hour. Flash flooding may will be most likely over and near the recent burn scar areas from last years, as well as this years fires. Normally dry arroyos can and do flood rapidly during these localized heavy rain events. Please do not attempt to dry across a flooded arroyo, especially at night when its harder to determine the depth of the water. Never try and walk across a flooded arroyo, and never let your children play in or near them or swim in them.


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