MIRROR: JUAN O SAVIN "IMPORTANT UPDATE" ON THE JABBER ROO

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Good Chance Of Getting Wet Into The Weekend.


(Thursday Aug 17, 2012).



(As Of 7 AM MDT).





24-Hour CoCoRaHS Rainfall Totals.
(As Of 7 AM MDT).

Eddy County.

Lea County.

Lincoln County.

Otero County.

Thunderstorms fired up over the Sacramento Mountains yesterday afternoon, and along the cold front draped across the southeastern plains later in the afternoon. Some of these storms produced some heavy rainfall based on radar returns, but most of these heavier storms manged to miss the reporting rain gauge networks. 

Good Chance Of T-Storms Today Into The Weekend.

NWS HPC Surface Map Forecast Valid At Noon Today.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Albuquerque NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The Lubbock NWS Office.

Map Is Courtesy Of The El Paso NWS Office.

Water Vapor Satellite Image At 7:45 AM MDT.

Thunderstorms should become fairly numerous this afternoon into the weekend. An upper-level disturbance will move southeastward and into the area today into tonight. A stationary frontal boundary is bisecting the southeastern plains and west Texas. Low-level moisture is streaming northwestward into the area from the Gulf of Mexico, while mid-upper level moisture is streaming northeastward into the area from the Baja Region. These factors combined with strong afternoon heating will all help to develop thunderstorms over the area. Some of these storms may last well into the night, possibly lasting into early Saturday morning.

Locally heavy rainfall may cause some localized flash flood problems today into the weekend, and this will be especially true over, and below the burn scar areas in the mountains. Some rainfall totals may exceed 1" - 2" by the end of the weekend. Our synoptic setup is one of the better ones that we have seen in awhile, so hopefully by the end of the weekend ,most of us will have received some beneficial rainfall.

 With the added moisture, clouds, and thunderstorm activity, our afternoon highs will be closer to normal seasonal values today into the weekend. Our highs will mostly be in the upper 80's to the low 90's across the plains, and the upper 60's to the upper 70's across the mountains.

Remnants Of TD #7.




Valid At 6 AM MDT Wednesday Aug 22, 2012.

A large area of disturbed weather (remnants of former Tropical Depression #7) was located over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico this morning. There is an 80% chance that this area of disturbed weather will become a tropical cyclone within 48-hours, according to the latest National Hurricane Advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate this area later this afternoon. Should this area of disturbed weather strengthen into a topical storm it would likely be named Helene.

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