Current Conditions 2.1 NNW Downtown Carlsbad, NM

Tropical Storm Ernesto. Sat Aug 4, 2012.








Tropical Storm Ernesto continues to slowly strengthen. At 2 AM MDT he had sustained winds of 60 mph with gusts near 70 mph. The wind shear that the tropical storm has been battling the past several days continues to weaken. Ernesto had been moving rather rapidly westward at near 25 mph yesterday, but has since slowed down to 18 mph. His central pressure is down to 29.56" or 1001MB. 


Tropical Storm Ernesto is forecast to continue to strengthen as he begins a slow turn to the west-northwest this weekend. Some of the forecast models indicate that Ernest could reach Hurricane strength within 36 hours. Others do not agree with this. There remains a fairly high degree of uncertainty concerning his future track as well. 


Will Ernesto become a player in our local weather down the road? Its possible but highly uncertain at this time. The GFS model continues to forecast a more southerly track into Mexico, south of Brownsville, Texas in about ten days. Other models track him further south, and some track him further north. Its just way too early to get a good feel on Ernesto's eventual track. 

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